AllThingsD » Mark Twain

It’s All About Content: Why Tablets Help Hard Drives

Mark Wojtasiak — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 18:00:53 +0000

To paraphrase Mark Twain: “Rumors of the hard drive’s death have been greatly exaggerated — again.” If you follow computer industry news, you’ve likely heard the story: hard drive sales are in jeopardy because hordes of users are replacing PCs that use hard drives for storage with tablets that use flash memory for storage.

But given the widespread adoption of tablets like Apple’s iPad, coupled with everyone under the sun vying for a piece of the tablet market, it’s easy to see that consumption of content will continue to explode. And that’s the point — with that explosion comes the aftershock of storage demand. As more users adopt tablets as mainstream, more storage from hard drives will be needed from the backend servers and in the cloud to serve them. So while flash is appealing for use in consumption devices like tablets, let’s not let this obscure the main fact about tablets in the big picture of the storage market, which is that tablets aren’t hurting hard drive sales — in fact, they are helping.

When examining the storage market, we can look at present and future projections for HDD unit sales and by volume of capacity (in petabytes) shipped as per the chart below:

But we can also look at the data trends for consumption. In 2005, the world generated 150 exabytes (one billion gigabytes) of data. This year, it’s estimated that we’ll create and store 1,200 exabytes, and in 2020, a staggering 35,000 exabytes!¹ That’s 30x growth over the next 10 years.

This isn’t the first time that we’ve heard in the HDD world that the sky is falling. About a decade ago, MP3 player manufacturers shrank the device footprint and switched from hard drive storage to flash. Not long after, smartphones came on the scene, and those in the know posted that users would discard their PCs in favor of smartphones and, again, the hard drive industry would suffer. But the sky never fell, and neither MP3 players nor smartphones caused hard drive sales to decline. In fact, sales actually grew 14 percent between 2000 and 2005, and continued to grow 12 percent from 2005 to 2010.¹ The reality is that the more content consumption devices hit the market, the greater the demand for hard drive storage capacity, even when it is not local to the device.

Now let’s delve into some logic. Consumers didn’t discard their PCs for smartphones, and they aren’t going to chuck their PCs for tablets — the devices just aren’t that interchangeable. People are using their tablets for content consumption: to watch movies, browse the Internet, check email, play games, etc. But they aren’t really using their tablets for content creation, and certainly don’t rely on them for heavy duty applications. So logically, it follows that most people who own a tablet need a PC as well.

But just for argument’s sake, let’s assume users worldwide tossed out their PCs and replaced them with tablets. Right out of the gate, we would have a capacity problem. The bottom line is that all the flash in the world isn’t close to enough to meet the worldwide need for storage capacity, and that fact will remain true for a very, very long time. Here are some numbers to consider: In 2010, all the content created and replicated grew past a staggering zettabyte (one trillion gigabytes), and is expected to reach 1.8 zettabytes in 2011. Yet in 2010, the entire NAND flash memory industry manufactured just over 11 exabytes (you would need 1000 exabytes to equal every one zettabyte) of storage. Even with forecasts predicting that NAND flash production capacity will grow to 21 exabytes in 2011, only nine percent of that, or about two exabytes, will go to the flash memory used in tablets.² That’s not nearly enough capacity to meet demand.

Tablets with flash storage simply don’t have the onboard capacity to store the massive volumes of digital content that users want to access — anytime, anywhere. So all that data needs to be stored externally, in either local attached, networked or cloud storage — and all those formats rely on hard drives. So, once again, tablet popularity doesn’t hurt hard drive sales. In fact, some pundits see tablets as a net gain for hard drives: “For now, IDC sees the rise in demand for iPads/tablets as additive … for HDD makers in terms of the growth of information and digital content that has to be stored somewhere. That content and information consumed by these devices most likely will be stored on hard disk drives in data centers, cloud infrastructures, or on USB or network-attached personal storage devices in homes.”³

So in the end, even if some users do opt to replace their PCs with tablets, hard drives will still be in high demand. Content will continue its growth and storage will always be needed. Because nobody is saying worldwide demand for storage capacity is decreasing. Now that would be an ugly rumor!

Mark Wojtasiak is a Senior Manager in Product Marketing with Seagate Technology. For the past 5 years, Mark has been based in Seagate’s Shakopee, MN, design center where Seagate lives and breathes enterprise storage. Though Mark works in the middle of everything enterprise, his role at Seagate enables him to listen, learn, discuss, and share anything and everything related to storage. From the traditional desktop to external drives to the cloud, he develops insights on the latest storage technology, trends, customers, and users.

^{1 IDC Digital Universe Study, June 2011}

^{2 Gartner, Forecast: NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q10-4Q12, 3Q11 Update, page 2, Table 15-3, September 2011}

^{3 http://storageeffect.media.seagate.com/2010/11/storage-effect/a-tablet-with-a-side-of-storage-please/}

Google TV: No Need to Tune In Just Yet

Walter S. Mossberg — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 02:07:11 +0000

The quest to bring the full range of Internet video to your TV in a simple way continues, but it isn’t going well. The latest team to try—Google, Logitech and Sony—has made an admirably bold effort, but, like others before, it has missed the mark, at least in its first effort.

[ See post to watch video ]

Google TV—software built into hardware made by Logitech and Sony—is very different from competing products, such as Apple TV and Roku. Unlike the others, it aims to merge Web video and regular TV in one simple interface, via one box, with one easily usable controller. Also, unlike the others, it isn’t limited to just customized channels that bring specific Web-video services to the screen. It lets you browse to almost any website with video, and play it on the TV.

But, for now, I’d relegate Google TV to the category of a geek product, not a mainstream, easy solution ready for average users. It’s too complicated, in my view, and some of its functions fall short.

You can get Google TV in three ways. One is through a small, black $300 set-top box called the Logitech Revue. The second is through a special Sony Blu-ray player that costs $400. The third is through a Sony TV with built-in Internet that starts at $600. All are much costlier than the $99 Apple TV or the $60 Roku, but they offer more of the Internet’s video and make the effort to integrate it with cable or satellite programming.

Logitech Revue for Google TV

Google TV cleverly piggybacks onto your existing cable or satellite box and can control it, at least to some extent. So there is no switching of inputs or remotes required, at least theoretically, to go between Internet video and regular TV—something that has plagued competing systems. But if you try to watch an Internet version of a show from a big network site or from Hulu on your Google TV device, it’s blocked, because the studios want to channel those shows through your cable or satellite box.

I tested Google TV using the Logitech Revue product, though I also met with Sony and had a briefing on their version, which looks and works pretty much the same. Setup took 12 steps and about 40 minutes and went pretty smoothly. It might have been worse if, as Logitech warns, your cable or satellite box requires you to install special cables to allow the Revue’s controller to operate it, or if you use a separate audio system. You need an HDTV with HDMI jacks on your TV and cable or satellite box to use the Logitech Revue.

The controller on the Revue is a wireless keyboard. Yes, that’s right, a keyboard, something you might find unattractive in the living room and no better than what you might use if you just plugged a PC into the TV.

Logitech does offer an optional “mini” controller for $130, but it is essentially a tinier keyboard with minuscule buttons and track pad crammed into a smaller space. It is more complex to operate than the big keyboard and much more complicated than a typical TV remote. Sony’s box comes with a similar, complex-looking mini-controller.

The key to Google TV, however, is the software, not the hardware. There is a home screen with a list of core functions, but, Google being Google, the principle activity is meant to be search. You just start typing what you want to see and Google TV brings up a list of hits from both regular TV and the Internet.

Unfortunately, in my tests, this search-and-viewing process was frustrating. For one thing, you only get a few results, and in my experience, they usually weren’t the right ones. When I was looking for the telecast of the Mark Twain Award ceremony for Tina Fey, all Google pointed me to were short clips on YouTube. I had to do a full Web search (a standard option in the brief list Google gives you) and then navigate through a standard Google results screen, which was unreadable at 10 feet without zooming in, to find the full show on the PBS website.

When I finally got to the PBS page, we watched the show, but it was noticeably pixelated on our large TV screen, even though my Internet connection is very fast.

In another case, I wanted to see the new Beatles-themed ads from Apple, but Google’s first results didn’t include them. The closest they came was an old fictional ad on the topic produced by a fan years ago. I manually navigated to Apple’s website, where the ads were prominent, but found that Google TV doesn’t support QuickTime, Apple’s video format. (The company says it plans to do so in a future release.) I knew the ads were also on YouTube, so I went there and eventually found them, with some effort, but they stuttered on playback.

To use the Logitech Revue for Google TV, you need an HDTV with HDMI jacks on your TV and cable or satellite box.

I was similarly frustrated by finding and using regular TV shows from my cable box. Unless you have a box from Dish network, Google TV can’t search in your recorded shows, or allow you, when it finds a show coming up, to set it to record. You’ll likely switch to your regular remote to do those things, which defeats Google’s aim of integration.

Also confusing is Google TV’s home screen, which has overlapping categories. For instance, there is a Queue, for some of your favorite podcasts and sites, and a Bookmarks for others. There is an Applications menu that takes you to specially designed apps that spare you from navigating the regular Web, such as the Netflix video service or Pandora Radio. But there is also a Spotlight category that has customized, simplified websites that, to an average user, amount to the same thing. And, so far, you can only search for the names of most applications, not any content they contain.

Google plans to add the Android Market of third-party apps to Google TV. That could be good, adding more functionality. But it also risks adding more complexity, unless Google redesigns the interface.

Google TV has its strong points. The integration of Web video and regular TV, while flawed, is a smart move. There is even a picture-in-picture feature that lets you keep watching TV while, say, using Twitter or any other Web function. And the Logitech box has an optional $150 camera that allows you to make free video calls. It worked well in my one test. Logitech also allows you to control the Revue from an iPhone or Android app.

But this is a 1.0 product. For now, I’d suggest average users dying to watch Internet video on a TV, either plug in a PC or use one of the wireless systems, like Intel’s Wi-Di, that wirelessly beam video from a PC to a TV. Or, you could wait for Google TV to improve.

Find all his columns and videos at walt.allthingsd.com Email him at mossberg@wsj.com.

What Color Is Happened to Your Parachute?

John Paczkowski — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 07:10:42 +0000

Looking over the latest unemployment figures, Silicon Valley’s technology bust early this decade no longer seems such a distant memory. In another unsettling economic sign, the unemployment rate in Silicon Valley rose for the fourth consecutive month in August to reach a four-year high. Unemployment in Silicon Valley reached 6.5 percent last month, up from a revised 6.4 percent in July and 6.0 percent in June, according to the latest data from the California Employment Development Department.

The last time the unemployment rate was this high was in July 2004, following the dotcom bust. Seems even the high-tech world is becoming more fiscally cautious as the economy crumbles around us. We’ve seen layoffs at Yahoo (YHOO), Motorola (MOT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Sun (JAVA), Nortel (NT) … even Google (GOOG), which announced the first major cuts in its 10-year history.

What was it Mark Twain once said? “By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again–and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law.”