New data from ChangeWave shows a promising trend in PlayBook purchasing intentions. The research house surveyed 3,108 consumers with an eye toward determining tablet and netbook demand and found the PlayBook to be the second most popular choice among respondents planning to buy a tablet. Eight percent of respondents expressed interest in it. That’s significantly less than the 80 percent who professed interest in the iPad, which, predictably, claims a daunting lead, but it’s significantly greater then the three percent who claimed interest in Samsung’s Galaxy tablet and the two percent who said they’d like Hewlett-Packard’s forthcoming Slate.

Which, as RBC analyst Mike Abramsky notes, is promising. Extrapolating from that eight percent figure, he estimates that RIM may sell as many as six million PlayBooks in 2011 (calendar) to claim 13 percent of the market.

“This set of hardware specs beat anything available to date on the tablet market,” Steven Li at Raymond James said in a research note issued today. “We believe the PlayBook tablet shows RIM is starting to compete effectively on hardware specs.”

RBC analyst Mike Abramsky offered a similar opinion, describing PlayBook’s specs as “leading-edge” and arguing that the device is well positioned for enterprise. “PlayBook may be cheaper, more productive than iPad for enterprises to deploy,” he observed, noting that the device requires no additional licenses or carrier costs and leverages existing corporate apps and infrastructure. Abramsky’s preliminarily estimate has RIM selling as many as six million PlayBooks in its first year at market.

Brian Modoff of Deutsche Bank said the company’s new OS has a lot of potential, likely making it easier for developers to write for the device and future products that use it.

Finally, over at Susquehanna, analyst Jeffrey Fidacaro talked up the device’s new QNX operating system, which sounds promising, though he noted that the transition to it could take some time, slowing the development of its app ecosystem.

“An app developer contact who works closely with RIM described the recently acquired QNX OS as “rock solid” as it was designed for mission critical applications, and felt that the SDK allowed for applications to be ported over fairly easily,” Fidacaro wrote. “The QNX OS is Unix-based and supports POSIX (easy portability of code) and OpenGL (3D graphics). We view RIM’s transition to a new OS positively as the Blackberry OS was antiquated, which apparently was not fully resolved with the recently launched Blackberry 6. However, we estimate the transition period to fully upgrade RIM’s 50+ mln subscriber base to the new platform to take at least two years. Furthermore, it is uncertain how easy RIM can port its proprietary technologies, such as security and compression, to the QNX platform.”

And that’s the real problem RIM (RIMM) is facing here: PlayBook is late to the game, and, as impressive as its specs might be, the timing of its launch– early 2011–may prove to be a real detriment. “With the PlayBook only available for consumers after the holiday season, we view this as a mild disappointment,” T. Michael Walkley of Canaccord Adams said in a note to clients Tuesday. “As such, we remain cautious in modeling RIM tablet sales due to the intensifying tablet competition and uncertain demand for this product.”

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
While Apple had yet another stellar quarter, investors will wonder if the pace of growth is sustainable. We believe it is, given Apple has small market share in large, growing markets. We estimate that if Apple meets our Mac, iPhone, and iPad targets in 2011, the company will have only about 5 percent market share in the phone and computer markets, a number that will likely grow over time.

Mike Abramsky, RBC
Apple is now benefiting from what we are dubbing a “Cascade of Cool”–three strong, synergistic product cycles–iPhone, iPad and Mac, combining together synergistically to drive the strongest outperformance in 4 years–with more to come, as Apple remains well positioned against large, addressable markets. Additional drivers/catalysts expected include international rollouts, voice to Smartphone adoption, PC to Mac migration, enterprise adoption.

Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank
While current quarter results were very impressive, we see open runway for the 3 major product cycles ramping in C2H10 and beyond which should drive continued momentum. The iPad is off to a very strong start with demand characterized by Apple as “amazing” with widespread appeal to the mass market (i.e. already moved beyond “early adopters”). iPhone 4 demand is outstripping supply despite widely publicized antenna concerns (which we expect to dissipate). Both products continue to ramp internationally (iPhone with 154 carriers in 88 countries) while iPad will be available in 9 additional countries by July 23rd. Finally, we expect the recently refreshed MacBook lineup (and future updates) to perform well in the back-to-school and holiday seasons.

Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer
We were expecting Apple to deliver a strong F3Q10. But we hadn’t girded ourselves for a mammoth revenue forecast, and neither, we believe, had the Street. To those (like us) who fretted that Antennagate might hamper iPhone sales, Apple’s guidance seems to say “antennagate schmantennagate.” Apple is seeing a swell of demand across its product lines and increasingly compelling evidence that the iPhone has unleashed a halo effect in the international markets. These are facts on the ground that even Apple’s stubbornly bearish guidance can’t resist.

Charlie Wolf, Needham and Co.
This is the Apple story in a nutshell. The company remains a small fish in some very large ponds. Despite a quadrupling of shipments over the past several years, the Mac, the major surprise in the third quarter with record shipments of 3.5 million, still commands a small share of the PC market. The iPhone’s share of the fast growing smartphone market is likewise comparatively small. And while the iPad is in a class of its own, it’s beginning to cannibalize the much larger netbook PC market. Indeed, the iPad has jumped to the mainstream market, passing through the early adopter market in an instant.

Maynard Um, UBS
Guidance was much stronger than expected as the rev outlook of ~$18b was uncharacteristically higher (by $1bn) than Street ests. We believe AAPL typically guides to a conservatively achievable target, making guidance all the more impressive. With AAPL selling nearly every iPad/iPhone 4 produced, key variable to magnitude of pot’l upside will likely be the pace of capacity increases.

Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley
The market underestimates the earnings power of Apple’s mobile Internet devices. We view the combination of new product launches, broader distribution (carrier, international, enterprise), more attractive pricing and strong upgrade rates as the key demand drivers over the next two years. Additionally, we believe iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad margins will remain above the corporate average, driving EPS upside as mix improves.

As you can see, Apple’s financial performance has sent the analyst community into paroxysms of praise. Not a week after its Antennagate press conference, the company already seems to have extricated itself from the public relations quagmire surrounding the iPhone 4’s reception woes.

As RBC analyst Abramsky quipped, there’s no deodorant like success.

In a research note this morning, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky theorizes that it will be the iPad driving Apple (AAPL) to a beat this quarter. He figures the company sold 3.3 million of them in the third quarter and expects to sell 4.5 million in the fourth. The iPhone will play a role here as well, but Abramsky fears that production constraints may have hamstrung the device’s sales slightly in the third quarter.

So what to expect come tomorrow afternoon? Abramsky says $15.2 billion in revenue and $3.20 earnings per share, well above the $14.7 billion and $3.10 the Street is looking for.

[Image credit: Rick Smolan]

So if, come January, Verizon (VZ) were to offer the iPhone, what might happen?

Well, for one thing, the addition of a second U.S. carrier would likely slow sales of smartphones running Google’s (GOOG) Android OS a bit. “Adding Verizon would significantly blunt the competitive threat from the Android platform, whose favored status at Verizon has been critical to its building momentum,” says Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner. “We suspect the momentum could turn in the face of direct competition from the iPhone.”

For another, Apple (AAPL) would sell a hell of a lot more iPhones. Verizon has a post-paid subscriber base of 83 million. And according to Reiner, it would likely generate 12 million new unit sales for Apple next year. That would translate to more than $7 billion in incremental revenue and more than $3.00 in incremental earnings-per-share.

That’s a fairly bullish scenario–perhaps a bit too bullish. RBC analyst Mike Abramsky sees a deal with Verizon spiking iPhone sales, but he believes that spike would be dulled a bit by AT&T’s (T) decision to make its subscribers eligible for an iPhone 4 a year before their contracts expired and a few other things as well. “Prior Canadian and UK iPhone transitions to multi-carrier distribution [stimulated] an upgrade cycle and [expanded] the local smartphone market,” Abramsky explains. “However, this is offset by: 1) majority of potential iPhone buyers had already switched to 1st network; 2) Android smartphones now offer reasonable competition; and 3) iPhone upgrade offers at 1st carrier locks in existing users.”

Still, as I’ve written here before, a move to nonexclusivity in the U.S. would certainly brutalize AT&T’s subscriber base, at least a bit. Analysts have long said that a material number of AT&T iPhone users would flock to Verizon’s superior network given the chance.

“People are loving iPad as it becomes a part of their daily lives,” CEO Steve Jobs said in a statement. “We’re working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more people around the world, including those in nine more countries next month.”

The current pace of iPad sales means Apple (AAPL) appears on track to blow the doors off most analyst estimates. Earlier this year, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi predicted sales would hit five million units in the first year, while Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Katy Huberty was looking for more than six million. More recently, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky bullishly predicted sales of eight million, which at this point seem entirely realistic.

The official release below.

Apple Sells Three Million iPads in 80 Days

CUPERTINO, California–June 22, 2010–Apple® today announced that it sold its three millionth iPad™ yesterday, just 80 days after its introduction in the US. iPad is a revolutionary and magical product that allows users to connect with their apps, content and the Internet in a more intimate, intuitive and fun way than ever before.

“People are loving iPad as it becomes a part of their daily lives,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We’re working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more people around the world, including those in nine more countries next month.”

Developers have created over 11,000 exciting new apps for iPad that take advantage of its Multi-Touch™ user interface, large screen and high-quality graphics. iPad will run almost all of the more than 225,000 apps on the App Store, including apps already purchased for your iPhone® or iPod touch®.

Users can browse the web, read and send email, enjoy and share photos, watch HD videos, listen to music, play games, read ebooks and much more, all using iPad’s revolutionary Multi-Touch user interface. iPad is 0.5 inches thin and weighs just 1.5 pounds–thinner and lighter than any laptop or netbook–and delivers up to 10 hours of battery life.

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter modestmouse]

Noting that the nine countries in which the iPad debuted today are among Apple’s strongest international markets, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky said he expects the company to sell more iPads than Macs internationally–600,000 to 700,000 or more in the third quarter of fiscal 2010. Abramsky figures international Mac sales will come in at around 500,000.

Makes sense. As I noted here last week, iPad sales in the United States are believed to be outpacing those of the Mac and closing in on the iPhone 3GS.

“Industry contact feedback and previously published surveys point to strong International demand, supported by media reports of long lineups at Apple stores, and strong demand for iPads,” Abramsky wrote in a note to clients today. “iPads appear to be stocked out already at some stores and resellers, particularly in countries like Japan, Australia, and UK.”

With that in mind, Abramsky reiterates his earlier estimates for iPad sales. He believes Apple (AAPL) will sell 2.5 million iPads in Q3 and 8.1 million in calendar year 2010, adding, “Early healthy sell-through and rampant PR buzz–as it has been doing in North America–is expected to further raise demand and accelerate sell-through beyond early adopters….Over the upcoming months, we believe Apple will further ramp production to overcome initial supply shortages.” (Click on table below to enlarge.)

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter modestmouse and RBC Capital Markets]

Here’s a stunner of a data point: Apple is selling more than 200,000 iPads per week. Which means, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, that sales of the company’s new device have outpaced those of the Mac in the United States and are closing in on those of the iPhone 3GS.

“Checks indicate that US iPad sales remain strong post-launch, driven by rising consumer visibility to iPad’s user experience, sustained PR/word-of-mouth marketing, 3G iPad launch, and broadening iPad apps/content,” Abramsky wrote in a note to clients this morning. “We believe Apple is now selling >200k iPads/week, greater than US Macs (est. 110k Macs/week) and just below US iPhone 3GS first quart (246k/week).”

Evidently, there’s quite a bit of pent-up demand for the device. Retail checks in mid-May showing widespread iPad stockouts at Apple (AAPL) stores and Best Buy (BBY). The 3G iPad is sold out at many Apple stores, and about 25 percent of them now have only Wi-Fi iPads available. Waiting lists are not uncommon.

With that in mind–not to mention the device’s forthcoming international launch–Abramsky raised his global iPad outlook for 2010 from five million to eight million.

Abramsky’s is one of the most bullish iPad sales estimates to date, though it certainly has company. Earlier this year, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi predicted sales will hit five million units in the first year, while Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Katy Huberty said they’d likely exceed six million. (Click on table and chart below to enlarge.)

One last point: Before we go jumping to conclusions about cannibalization of Mac sales, recall Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s remarks after reviewing NPD’s April sales data for Apple:

The iPad launched in US Apple retail stores on 4/3, impacting nearly the entire month of Apple’s sales in April. As a result, April NPD data gives us the first sign of the degree to which the iPad cannibalizes iPod or Mac sales. From the early NPD data, it appears that the iPad has a minimal cannibalization impact on Mac sales, and could be slightly cannibalizing iPod sales.

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter modestmouse and RBC Capital Markets]

So begins a research note from RBC analyst Mike Abramsky that’s a good representation of the market’s reaction to Apple’s latest blow-the-roof-off-the-sucker quarter.

The 90 percent spike in profit the company reported yesterday, which surpassed already lofty expectations, inspired a rush of analyst notes this morning, all of them enthusiastic, all of them containing raised target prices on Apple’s (AAPL) stock (Eric Savitz at Barron’s has the full run down).

Abramsky, for example, raised his target price to $350 from $275, and he wasn’t the only one. Chris Whitmore at Deutsche Bank did the same, saying, “Apple continues to show both impressive growth and profitability and is well positioned to benefit from the confluence of three major product refreshes beginning in the June quarter, namely: iPad, Macs and iPhone refresh expected this summer.”

Over at Broadpoint.AmTech, Brian Marshall raised his target to $320 for similar reasons: “Apple continues to gain share across its major product lines (iPhones, Macs and iPods),” he wrote in a research note. “Its business model is becoming stronger over time as well as the company benefits from an increasing richness of its revenue mix and when ASP cuts come, customers typically migrate up the ‘SKU stack’ and buy higher priced items with higher associated gross margins.”

And at Piper Jaffray, analyst Gene Munster dismissed Apple’s comically conservative guidance, upping his target to $323 from $299. Apple’s June quarter will be an encore to the one it just delivered, he said in a research note.

With a new iPhone waiting in the wings and the much ballyhooed iPad having just arrived at market, it does seem that way, doesn’t it? Consider this from Munster:

“Apple indicated that early iPad sales exceeded company expectations, which we see as a positive indication for the long-term investment prospects of the iPad segment. As the value proposition clarifies, we believe investors will begin to see the iPad as a Mac for the masses. In other words, the iPad is a lower-ASP device that accomplishes many everyday computing tasks as well as a Mac; as such, we believe the addressable market for the iPad is larger than many investors believe.”

If this proves true, expect Apple to deliver another of its “best quarters ever” when it next reports earnings.

At $258.14, Apple shares are trading up 5.54 percent today.

Still, RBC/ChangeWave found that 13 percent of the 3,200 respondents who participated in its iPad survey were either somewhat or very likely to purchase the device, compared with the nine percent who gave the same reply for the original iPhone in a similar survey conducted prior to its launch (see chart below; click on charts to enlarge). Said RBC analyst Mike Abramsky: “While we do not expect feverish initial launch lines like iPhone, the data portends well for healthy initial iPad uptake.”

The reason? The iPad’s unexpectedly low price point. Starting at $499, it is significantly below the $999 price expected. “Only 8 percent (of respondents) appear unwilling to pay Apple’s indicated iPad prices,” Abramsky notes. “That’s below the 28 percent who balked at initial iPhone pricing. Interest appears strongest with both Entry-Level and Tech-Savvy Buyers; 19 percent of declared iPad buyers indicated interest in the $499 16GB WiFi-only iPad, and 19 percent in the $829 64GB 3G iPad.”

Top planned uses for the device among both groups of buyers: Surfing the Internet (68 percent), checking e-mail (44 percent), and reading e-books (37 percent).

Evidently, Apple (AAPL) has managed to hit the pricing sweet spot at both the high and low ends of the market, which, as Abramsky observes, bodes well for its chances for success. “This data, while preliminary, suggests iPad may have greater potential than expected, to expand Apple’s addressable PC, iPod markets and to capture a segment of the home PC market (est. 35M+ units/yr),” he writes.

Abramsky’s estimate for iPad sales in CY 2010: Five million units, for revenue of $2.4 billion and earnings per share of 33 cents.

It remains to be seen whether Apple (AAPL) has created an entirely new computing category with the iPad. But at the very least, analysts seem to believe the company has created an enduring growth engine.

• Charlie Wolf, Needham & Company
  “Because Apple is defining a new category of devices, sales of the iPad are likely to ramp slowly. But the $500 starting price point is low enough to attract a sizable portion of the early adopter crowd, consisting of iPhone and iPod owners. It’s noteworthy that the iPad’s initial price is below the iPhone’s initial price and not much higher than the price of the first iPod, introduced in 2001. Our best guess at this time is the Apple could sell four million iPads in its initial year on the market, which translates into at least $2 billion of revenue.”
• Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
  “Originally we were estimating sales of 2m units in the first calendar year at a price point of $600-$800. With the actual $499/$629 price point, we believe Apple will sell 3m-4m units in the first 12 months….After using the iPad, we believe it will cannibalize iPod touch sales, but not Mac sales. The gadget is a premium mobile device, not a computer; as such, we see some iPod touch buyers stepping up to the iPad, but consumers looking for an affordable portable computer will likely stick with the MacBook lineup.”
• James McQuivey, Forrester
  “The iPad is a grown up iPod Touch. Apple has taken the safe route of offering its existing customers an option that goes beyond today’s iPod Touch in size and capability, but it has not offered a new category of devices that tackles the 5-6 hours of media we each consume every day. With no integrated social media for sharing photos, recommending books, and sharing home video, the iPad misses a big piece of what makes media so powerful. As it stands, by relying on the App Store as the single most important draw of the device besides its attractiveness, the iPod Touch is a significant step toward making tablets respectable. But making tablets respectable should have been the least of Apple’s ambitions. It had (and still has) the opportunity to create a new media experience in consumers’ lives. As it stands, a quick, well-structured response from Amazon in the next version of Kindle could easily be a contender here. That’s why I say that the iPad is priced lower than expected because it is less revolutionary than expected.”
• Mike Abramsky, RBC
  “Like the first iPod and iPhone, uptake may in time surprise as future versions improve and costs decline. The iPad’s intuitiveness and simplicity at key tasks (browsing, email, media, watching videos, games, reading, working) may appeal to consumers for whom existing PC experiences are intimidating, inadequate, delivering 90%+ of the features of traditional PCs with less complexity than traditional PCs. Uptake however may require in-store demos to truly experience the richness of iPad’s experience.”
• Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
  “The iPad has been long anticipated so we are not shocked by the lack of stock movement. Given the price point, we suspect initial sales will be strong (this is Apple, and there are many enthusiasts), and then simmer down a bit after a few months. The ultimate success of a new product category will be the unique apps developed for this device, and with the SDK just going out today, it is hard to know how impressive they will be. However, the good news is that aside from maybe modest iPod Touch cannibalization, we doubt that the iPad will cannibalize any revenues from the massive margin pools within the iPhone and Mac product categories.”
• Craig Moffett, Bernstein Research
  “Longer term, the iPad offers the potential to redefine the boundaries between print and video, turning formerly passive media into active ones, and in the process making what are currently low bandwidth applications (say, reading a newspaper) become much more bandwidth intensive (e.g. by embedding video rather than still pictures).”
• Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan
  “iPad is not for everyone, and the first-generation product is sure to have its critics given the prelaunch buzz. In our view, the iPad is a smart, nimble device for heavy content users–Apple’s core customer. iPad is a hybrid of sorts, marrying select benefits of the smartphone and notebook. We expect the market to be small at first, but the gamer and education verticals should construct a meaningful growth ramp longer term.”

RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky expects Apple (AAPL) to sell five million tablets in the product’s first year at market. At a retail price of $600 and a 30 percent gross margin, that would generate about $2.8 billion in revenue and add 30 cents to earnings per share. This assumes the tablet is neither a hit (iPhone) nor a niche product (MacBook Air), but ends up somewhere in between, the scenario Abramsky believes most likely.

As Abramsky cautions, nailing the sweet spot on price is crucial to the device’s success. “Pricing is key….Significant demand exists at $500-799, narrowing at $1000 at which level subsidies may be needed (assuming a mobile data version) for mass acceptance, suggesting both retail and carrier marketing/distribution similar to iPhone.”

The analyst asserts that “An Apple tablet priced at $500-700 unsubsidized ($200-300 subsidized) strikes squarely at heart of the entry level laptop and Netbook markets. Although the tablet would not offer the breadth of features or raw performance of traditional laptops, it would deliver an optimal experience for buyers looking for user-friendly, media-centric computing at entry-level price points.”

As for the effect of the tablet on other Apple products, “The tablet may cannibalize some Mac and iPod Touch buyers (est. 2-5% in scenario analysis), but the lack of Mac OS X compatibility (and emulated Windows) reduces the appeal of the tablet as a Mac replacement for Apple’s traditional premium Mac buyers.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Apple’s Tablet: MacBook Airbus?
• Apple Announces Jan. 27 Special Event: “Come See Our Latest Creation”
• Major Apple Product Announcement Set for Wednesday, Jan. 27
• Apple Pitching Tablet to Publishing Industry; Spring Launch Expected
• Time (Finally) for the Tablet? Apple Developers Supersizing Their Apps for January Event.
• The Apple Tablet Is Delayed? So What?
• $1.9 Billion in Capex? What’s Apple Planning?
• Apple’s Tablet: Read Different?
• Imaginary Demand for Mythical Apple Tablet Exceeds All Estimates
• Apple Tablet Coming to AT&T?
• New From Piper Jaffray Analyst Gene Munster: The Apple iPad
• Rumored Apple Netbook Actually an E-Book?
• iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed
• iFugly

But according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, Palm (PALM) is coming around and 2010 will be an inflection point for the company, which will thrive as it enlists more carriers worldwide to expand its installed base–carriers like Verizon (VZ) and France’s SFR, which both announced the addition of the Palm Pre Plus and Pixi Plus to their handset lineups at the Consumer Electronics Show yesterday.

AT&T (T) will be joining Verizon and SFR, although Palm seems to be a bit coy about this officially).

“Palm’s growing global distribution and developer momentum are a clear signal to us of Palm’s unique strengths and differentiation amidst competition, and bodes well for future Smartphone leadership,” Abramsky wrote in a note to clients today.

“While addressing awareness challenges,” the analyst added, these “significant carrier agreements and innovations are clear signposts towards Palm’s successful turnaround–which in our view investors should not dismiss.”

So, even though Palm’s share of the global smartphone market fell to 1.4 percent in the third quarter from 2.7 percent a year earlier, things are looking up. “While addressing near-term turnaround challenges (e.g. awareness), we foresee further upside for the shares as Palm’s product portfolio broadens, its install base expands, it gains scale and momentum–and investor concerns dissipate,” Abramsky concludes.

And if things shouldn’t quite pan out that way, Abramsky notes, there’s always this: “Palm also remains an attractive acquisition candidate.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm’s Biggest Problem: Sprint
• Palm Disappoints
• Palm Posts Loss, Announces Stock Offering
• Analyst: Palm’s Special Sauce Is Finger Lickin’ Good
• Palm: The Turnaround Story of the Year
• Pre Makes Palm a New Man in Only Minutes a Day
• Palm: Execution Is Everything

“We are very impressed by Apple’s ability to post a record profit quarter during difficult macro spending conditions,” Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek said in a note to clients this morning. “A host of new product introductions and continued traction with the iPhone give us confidence in the sustainability of Apple’s operating model.”

Suffice it to say, Misek wasn’t the only the analyst lauding Apple’s (AAPL) fourth-quarter performance. Below a selection of commentary from other Apple watchers:

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
“September results were strong despite headwinds of iPhone production constraints and a Mac desktop offering in need of a refresh. We expect these headwinds to become tailwinds in the December quarter, which we believe will be positive for AAPL shares in the coming months.”

Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets
“With strong financial performance and product uptake amidst recession, and further catalysts (iPhone in China, Tablet, refreshed iMacs, iPhone share gains/momentum), we foresee further upside for the shares.”

Maynard Um, UBS
“Upside to virtually every metric in the qtr backs our positive view on Apple. We continue expect greater “recurring” iPhone hardware revenue (growing installed base & stickiness of the App Store), which should drive more visibility into iPhone sales (20%+ of our FY10 iPhone shipments), as well as iPhone expansion driven by new partnerships (& end of exclusivities). Longer term, we believe a service to provide seamless access & mobility of digital content across all products may be the draw (halo) that drives additional future Apple product sales.”

Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
“Overall, Q4:09 was a strong quarter for Apple, as the Mac is nearly becoming the de facto computer for the back-to-school season. Additionally, iPhone trends remain remarkably strong, with unit economics holding up at unheard of levels in the wireless industry.”

Yair Rainer, Oppenheimer
“As usual, Apple appears to be leaving plenty of room for upside surprises to both revenue and margins. On the revenue side, Apple should benefit from continued Mac momentum (particularly in Europe), higher recognized iPhone revenue, and some channel fill for both Mac and iPhone. Gross margin upside is likely to come from a higher proportion of recognized, high-margin iPhone revenue.”

“We are very impressed by Apple’s ability to post a record profit quarter during difficult macro spending conditions,” Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek said in a note to clients this morning. “A host of new product introductions and continued traction with the iPhone give us confidence in the sustainability of Apple’s operating model.”

Suffice it to say, Misek wasn’t the only the analyst lauding Apple’s (AAPL) fourth-quarter performance. Below a selection of commentary from other Apple watchers:

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
“September results were strong despite headwinds of iPhone production constraints and a Mac desktop offering in need of a refresh. We expect these headwinds to become tailwinds in the December quarter, which we believe will be positive for AAPL shares in the coming months.”

Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets
“With strong financial performance and product uptake amidst recession, and further catalysts (iPhone in China, Tablet, refreshed iMacs, iPhone share gains/momentum), we foresee further upside for the shares.”

Maynard Um, UBS
“Upside to virtually every metric in the qtr backs our positive view on Apple. We continue expect greater “recurring” iPhone hardware revenue (growing installed base & stickiness of the App Store), which should drive more visibility into iPhone sales (20%+ of our FY10 iPhone shipments), as well as iPhone expansion driven by new partnerships (& end of exclusivities). Longer term, we believe a service to provide seamless access & mobility of digital content across all products may be the draw (halo) that drives additional future Apple product sales.”

Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
“Overall, Q4:09 was a strong quarter for Apple, as the Mac is nearly becoming the de facto computer for the back-to-school season. Additionally, iPhone trends remain remarkably strong, with unit economics holding up at unheard of levels in the wireless industry.”

Yair Rainer, Oppenheimer
“As usual, Apple appears to be leaving plenty of room for upside surprises to both revenue and margins. On the revenue side, Apple should benefit from continued Mac momentum (particularly in Europe), higher recognized iPhone revenue, and some channel fill for both Mac and iPhone. Gross margin upside is likely to come from a higher proportion of recognized, high-margin iPhone revenue.”

“A significant number of buyers–21 percent (3,100 respondents)–would be interested in purchasing a Mac tablet priced at $500-700,” RBC analyst Mike Abramsky wrote in a message to clients this morning. He noted as well that this is far above the nine percent who professed to be interested in the original iPhone in an April 2007 survey. The promising early interest illustrates the market opportunity for a Mac-based tablet, Abramsky said.

Assuming, of course, Apple (AAPL) plans to bring one to market.

Excluding charges related to stock options and other items, Palm (PALM) said net losses were $13.6 million, or 10 cents a share, for the recent period. Revenue slipped to $68 million from $366.9 million in the same period last year. Excluding revenue deferred from sales of the company’s new Pre handset, Palm said adjusted revenue would have been $360.7 million. Analysts had expected the company to turn in a loss of 24 cents a share on sales of $291 million.

Palm shipped a total of 823,000 smart phone units during the quarter, up 134 percent over the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009, but down 30 percent year over year. Smart phone sell-through for the quarter was 810,000 units, up 76 percent from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009 and down 21 percent year over year.

Speaking to analysts Thursday afternoon, Palm execs claimed that “the vast majority of new sales” for the quarter were generated by the Pre. But they declined to separate Pre sales from those of other handsets.

Skeptics will no doubt look at this and conclude that Palm didn’t meet expectations for Pre shipments of about 520,000. That, or the company is still selling a hell of a lot of Centros.

“We’re making significant progress with Palm’s transformation, and our culture of innovation is stronger than ever,” said Jon Rubinstein, chairman and chief executive officer. “We’re launching more great Palm webOS products with more carriers, and turning our sights toward growth.”

A few more Jon Rubinstein remarks from the earnings call:

On additional form factors:

I’m a big believer in families of products, and we’ll continue to evolve the line in the future and have a family of products for webOS.

On Carrier Customization:

We don’t really talk about our carrier agreements.

On Pre sales:

Sell-in and sell-through…the vast majority of new sales…relate to the Pre.

On the Pixi cannibalizing Pre sales:

The Pixi is a more cost-effective offering, so yes we expect some people might come into the store looking to buy a Pre and end up with a Pixi. But others might come in looking for a Pixi and end up with a Pre. As I said, we’re big believers in families of products. We’re happy to have two webOS products on the market.

On carrier diversification:

Sprint did a phenomenal launch with the Pre. They invested heavily in advertising….We’re looking forward to launching the Pixi with them as well. We don’t talk about our roadmap, but we’ll have more carriers and more products in the future.

On Motorola’s new Motoblur service:

We don’t really know much about it. To build really great consumer products, you have to own the OS and services. And the fact that we have webOS as our asset is really important.