AllThingsD » Needham & Co.

A New Milestone for the Mac: 5 Percent of the Global PC Market

John Paczkowski — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:17:23 +0000

Apple has finally made it past the PC market’s “magic 5 percent mark.”

Buoyed by increasing sales in enterprise and explosive growth in the Asia Pacific, the company’s share of the global PC market passed the 5 percent mark last quarter, for the first time in 15 years, according to analyst Charlie Wolf of Needham & Co.

Mac shipments grew 24.6 percent in the September quarter, a period during which the broader PC market grew just 5.3 percent. It was the 22nd consecutive quarter that the growth of Mac shipments has outpaced the market. And beyond this, shipments for the past year represented 20 percent of the growth in worldwide PC shipments.

The Mac’s got serious momentum.

In the business market, its growth was a staggering 43.8 percent, more than nine times greater than the 4.8 percent growth posted by the rest of the business market.

And in the home market? There, the Mac saw 25.6 percent growth, compared to overall growth of only 4.0 percent.

Interesting, because in the home market, the iPad was expected to cannibalize at least some Mac sales. In fact, during Apple’s third-quarter earnings call, CEO Tim Cook conceded that point. But evidently that cannibalization is minor at most, and far worse for Apple’s rivals. As Wolf observes, Mac sales in the home market have continued to increase, while sales of Windows notebook PCs have slowed.

“The iPad is undoubtedly cannibalizing some Mac sales,” Wolf writes. “But it appears to be cannibalizing PC sales a lot more. In our view, this underscores the power of the halo effect in overwhelming the impact of any cannibalization the Mac might have experienced following the launch of the iPad.”

Which is essentially what Tim Cook said, back in July.

“Some customers chose to purchase an iPad instead of a Mac, but even more decided to buy an iPad over a Windows PC,” he remarked at the time. “There are a lot more Windows PCs to cannibalize than Macs.”

2020: Still the Year of the iPad

John Paczkowski — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 10:30:27 +0000

Competing against Apple’s iPad has been a fruitless endeavor for most who have tried, and sadly for the company’s rivals, that’s not going to change any time soon. In fact, the iPad is probably going to claim a materially larger share of the tablet market than anyone expects.

According to Needham analyst Charlie Wolf, the iPad will dominate the tablet market for the better part of the next decade. It will end this year with an 85 percent share, and while that percentage will decline gradually over the ensuing years, it will never fall so much that Apple loses the lead it claimed when the device first debuted. In 2015, for example, the iPad will still have a 72.5 percent share, with more than 101 million units shipped.

And in 2020?

Wolf figures the iPad will command a 60 percent share of the tablet market by then, with nearly 140 million units shipped.

How is that possible, given the unceasing cavalcade of new tablets parading to market? Simple, says Wolf: None of those tablets has managed to gain any traction with consumers.

“Future tablets are more likely to steal share from one another than from the iPad,” Wolf explains. “The tablet market has been inundated with new models — the Xoom running on Android’s Honeycomb operating system, RIM’s PlayBook running on the company’s QNX operating system, HP’s TouchPad running on webOS, and many others. All of them have been greeted with a yawn and lackluster sales. None have been able to undercut the aggressively priced iPad, because the iPad’s component costs are materially lower than those of competing tablets. In the case of tablets, the only thing that matters — that turns what’s otherwise a slab into a versatile device — are the apps. And the applications available on the tablets introduced this year number at best in the hundreds. In comparison, more than 100,000 applications are available on the iPad.”

That will, of course, change over time. Still, that’s quite a lead Apple has nabbed, and one that it will undoubtedly continue to extend even as its rivals rush to catch it.

Verizon Android Users Probably Just Holding Out for iPhone 5

John Paczkowski — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 11:31:07 +0000

If the debut of the iPhone on Verizon didn’t trigger quite the mass exodus of Android users some had expected, it could be because the carrier is more of a stronghold for Google’s mobile OS than anyone expected. But there might be another reason, as well.

Verizon’s Android users are waiting for the iPhone 5. And when it arrives this fall, they’ll make the switch en masse. That’s the theory put forth by Needham analyst Charlie Wolf, who believes the simultaneous debut of the iPhone 5 on both GSM and CDMA networks will herald the beginning of Android’s share loss in the U.S.

Wolf suspects initial sales of the iPhone 4 on Verizon were less than what they might have been because the device launched on the network eight months after it debuted on AT&T and many VZ subscribers decided they’d rather wait for its next iteration before upgrading — particularly those under contract, who would have had to pay an early termination fee to switch. Why pay a $350 ETF to switch to the iPhone 4, when you may not have to pay one at all if you wait a few months for the iPhone 5? And if you have to pay it anyway, why not make sure you pay it for the newest hardware available?

“It’s reasonable to assume that a material percentage of Verizon subscribers who plan to switch were content to wait until the iPhone 5 arrived later this year,” says Wolf. “One reason Apple delayed the launch of iPhone 5 until September is that it reportedly plans to coordinate the launch of the GSM and CDMA versions of the phone. To do so in June would likely have upset Verizon subscribers who purchased iPhone 4 in the preceding months. It’s our expectation, then, that the anticipated surge in iPhone sales on the Verizon network is likely to occur this fall after Apple launches iPhone 5.”

And that’s when we’ll see some real erosion in Android’s market share in the States. In fact, it’s beginning already. According to Wolf, Android’s share of the U.S. smartphone market fell to 49 percent from 52 percent in the March quarter. Meanwhile, the iPhone’s share rose to 29.5 percent from 17.2.

Is an "iPhone Lite" Still an iPhone?

John Paczkowski — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 10:45:39 +0000

There’s little doubt that Apple’s share of the smartphone market–particularly in emerging countries–would benefit from a less expensive version of the iPhone–an “iPhone Lite.”

But can the company even build one?

That seems a daunting task, particularly if the intent is to reduce the cost of the device to the point where carriers could subsidize most or all its retail price, while retaining the features that make it uniquely an iPhone.

In other words, can Apple build a mass market iPhone that is still an iPhone?

Needham analyst Charlie Wolf doesn’t think so. “Apple’s designers and engineers would have to pull a rabbit of a hat to accomplish it,” he said, noting that simply reducing the iPhone’s size isn’t really a viable option. “Such a move would dramatically reduce the value of the iPod module for video viewing as well as the size of Web sites accessed through the Safari browser. A smaller screen would also degrade the experience in using some applications.”

Other strategies, like drastically reducing the iPhone’s internal storage, wouldn’t do much good either. Going from 16GB to 4GB would reduce the device’s bill of materials by only about $30. And even if Apple were able to whittle it down further, margins on the device would likely drop to an unappealing level for a company that is accustomed to high ones.

“Bottom line, Apple has a delicate balancing act on its hands,” said Wolf. “It could modestly reduce costs and the iPhone would still be an iPhone. Going beyond that, the iPhone would no longer be an iPhone.”

That’s a reasonable argument if you assume Apple’s strategy is to reduce costs by removing things from the current iPhone.

But what if the company’s strategy is to build an entirely new iPhone for the prepaid market? What if it were to build a feature phone version of the iPhone, one with a mass-produced chip, a lower resolution screen, less on-board storage and no app store, just a handful of built-in apps? That seems a hell of a lot easier than painstakingly removing features from the iPhone 4 or 3Gs to the point where it’s suitable for the prepaid market. And as many an analyst has pointed out a lower-tier iPhone–one free of the required $70+ a month voice-and-data service plan–could be quite the bonanza for Apple.

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[Image credit: Unwired View]

Mac Growth Outpaces Market for 19th Straight Quarter

John Paczkowski — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 12:00:00 +0000

The Mac has been on a growth tear for a few years now, outperforming the broader PC market in most every sector. Indeed, December 2010 marked the 19th consecutive quarter that it did so. Mac shipments grew 23.5 percent for the month–a near seven-time multiple of the PC market’s growth rate of 3.4 percent.

An astonishing spike. And it’s even more astonishing when you break it down by sector. In the global home or consumer market, the Mac posted shipment growth of 17.1 percent, while the broader market posted a decline of .6 percent. In the business market, Mac shipments grew 65.4 percent compared to the market growth rate of 9.7 percent. And in government, they grew 549.5 percent compared to the broader market’s 8.4 percent. Of course, government sales represent only 1 percent of total Mac sales, so that spike appears more dramatic than it really is, but still…

So what’s the engine for all this growth? Needham analyst Charlie Wolf thinks it’s a halo effect from Apple’s iOS device trinity–the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad–particularly, the latter two, which are gaining lots of traction in both the home and business markets (Oddly, Apple suffered a decline in the education segment, where it has traditionally been pretty strong).

“The surge in Mac sales in the business market coincided with the introduction of the iPad in the second quarter of 2010,” says Wolf. “It would be foolish to assign a cause and effect connection between the two events. However, in less than a year, the iPad has been deployed or piloted in 80 of the Fortune 100 companies, and it’s reasonable to assume the device has invaded smaller businesses at a similar pace. It’s likely, then, that the halo effect emanating from the iPad will be far stronger than the iPhone halo effect in the business market if only because the iPad is a kissing cousin of Apple’s family of notebook computers.”

Why Verizon’s iPhone Won’t Be So Bad for RIM

Arik Hesseldahl — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 17:29:28 +0000

It was about a year ago I was talking with Charles Wolf, the analyst at Needham and Co. in New York who covers both Apple and Research In Motion. At the time he promised that the day Verizon picked up the iPhone he would downgrade RIM to “sell.” I called him this morning to ask if that were still true. His answer? No, he’s not planning to downgrade RIM even though Verizon is expected to announce its first iPhone tomorrow.

A year ago, when Wolf first made that statement, he was right. An iPhone on Verizon would have been a severe blow to Research In Motion. That it will only amount to a sting this year says a lot about how RIM’s business has improved and how its revenue base has become more diverse in the year or so since.

RIM doesn’t disclose the identities of its biggest carrier partners, but it does disclose how much the top three contribute to overall sales, though it’s not hard to figure out that Verizon has traditionally been its biggest customer. A year ago, Verizon’s sales of BlackBerry devices contributed 25 percent of RIM’s overall sales, while the next two largest customers contributed 13 percent and 10 percent, respectively. At least one of those was AT&T.

Today the picture’s different. RIM’s biggest customer–and it may still be Verizon–accounted for only 12 percent of sales in the quarter ended November, while number two and number three each accounted for 9 percent.

RIM’s growth outside its top three countries–the U.S., the U.K. and Canada–has also picked up. According to figures from IDC, in 2007 RIM relied on North America for more than three quarters of its sales. As of the third quarter of 2010, that figure was down to less than 48 percent. And in a lot of these markets carriers don’t subsidize the phone as aggressively as U.S. carriers do, and so RIM ends up having an advantage on price: $250 or so versus $500 or $600 for an iPhone. RIM is also seeing strong growth in its prepaid business outside North America. During its Dec. 16 earnings call, CEO Jim Balsillie said prepaid sales in the U.K. had grown by 245 percent year-over-year.

Then there’s Android. Verizon threw a lot of weight behind Google’s Android platform last year and has been marketing it heavily all year. The results have been mixed. A study by ITG Investment Research last year suggested that Android didn’t give Verizon the competitive bump it had hoped for versus AT&T. Meanwhile, RIM has in the last year moved closer to AT&T and in August launched the BlackBerry Torch with that carrier, though it didn’t go as well as had been hoped.

It’s not like RIM isn’t going to take some damage from the iPhone. RIM shares are down this morning more than 1 percent. But for RIM it could have been much worse. In June, when Bloomberg News reported that Verizon planned to bring the iPhone to its network, I covered the story of how investors freaked out and lopped more than 6 percent off RIM’s valuation. Now investors seem to understand that it’s likely to hurt RIM’s overall share of the smartphone market, but it won’t be the disaster that it would have been a year ago.

Meanwhile, if you haven’t seen it already, make sure you watch the interview Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher did with RIM Co-CEO Mike Lazaridis at D: Dive Into Mobile in December.

[ See post to watch video ]

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Nokia's Grip Slipping in Key Regional Markets

John Paczkowski — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 10:00:00 +0000

Another interesting tidbit from that Charlie Wolf note I mentioned here yesterday, this one concerning Nokia and the deterioration of its market share in regions where it used to have a stranglehold.

While the company has managed to stabilize its share of the worldwide smartphone market, it has not managed to do that in some regional markets that were once strongholds. In the key Western European region, for example, Nokia’s share fell from 59.4 percent in the June quarter of 2008 to 39.8 percent in June 2010–a decline of nearly 20 33 percent. And in the Asia Pacific market, the company’s share slipped from 74.8 percent in June 2009 to 64.5 percent in June 2010–a decline of more than 10 percent.

That these declines are occurring in markets where Nokia (NOK) is strongest really highlights the crisis the company is facing. Unable to keep pace with the fast-growing smartphone segment, Nokia has been losing share in its core markets to the iPhone, the BlackBerry and Android phones. And the incursion from those devices has only just begun, which doesn’t bode well for Nokia, as Wolf notes.

“Nokia?’s competitive position could deteriorate further,” he writes. “The major Android smartphone manufacturers have only recently invaded Europe. And they?’re taking aim at Asia Pacific and the Rest of World regions, two Nokia strongholds. Moreover, RIM is not far behind Android in this regard. Nokia has vowed to catch up with smartphones running on Symbian 3, the latest version of the Symbian operating system, and MeeGo, a new operating system it?’s developing with Intel. Unfortunately, in an increasing software centric market, Nokia suffers from the fact that the company?’s expertise lies in designing hardware, not software.”

Analyst: Smartphone OS Market Won't Be a Monopoly Play

John Paczkowski — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 18:30:07 +0000

Will Google’s Android OS do to the smartphone industry what Microsoft’s Windows OS did to the PC industry? Is the smartphone market a winner-take-all one? According to two much-discussed reports by Piper Jaffray and Gartner that see Android aggressively gobbling up market share in the next five years, it is.

But Needham analyst Charlie Wolf says that’s impossible, because the smartphone market lacks the necessary conditions for a winner-take-all outcome. For one thing, the smartphone market doesn’t yet have a so-called killer app, a modern-day Lotus 1-2-3 that would tip it toward a single platform. For another, there’s little applications lock-in. Most smartphone apps have very little learning curve and are far too inexpensive to tie their users to any one platform. There is no Microsoft Office or Adobe Creative Suite whose high price almost guarantees loyalty to the platform on which they run. Finally, wireless carriers oppose a winner-take-all outcome because it would diminish their control of the market and currently they are pretty much the smartphone’s sole distribution channel.

So if the smartphone market isn’t going to evolve into a winner-take-all situation with Android the winner, how will it evolve?

“We believe that Google?’s land grab strategy should enable Android to end up with a 40%+ share and that the iPhone?’s share could reach 25% as Apple (AAPL) signs up additional carriers,” says Wolf. “Nokia?’s (NOK) share is likely to fall from 39% currently to 20%, although over time it could fall even further. BlackBerry?’s share should also fall to around 10% while Windows Mobile share should remain around 5%. The wildcard in our forecast is Windows Mobile. If the launch of Windows Phone 7 is successful, the platform?’s share of the smartphone market could climb far higher. Most of the gains would likely come at the expense of Android, since Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are competing for the attention of the same smartphone manufacturers?—most notably HTC, Samsung, LG and Motorola (MOT).”

Apple Earnings: No Better Antennagate Deodorant Than Success

John Paczkowski — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 14:44:06 +0000

Apple’s big third-quarter earnings beat has sent the analysts who follow the company in search of new superlatives with which to describe its performance. A barrage of Apple (AAPL) research notes were broadcast this morning and they are positive to a one, though with a single point of concern: Can Apple keep up its current pace?

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
While Apple had yet another stellar quarter, investors will wonder if the pace of growth is sustainable. We believe it is, given Apple has small market share in large, growing markets. We estimate that if Apple meets our Mac, iPhone, and iPad targets in 2011, the company will have only about 5 percent market share in the phone and computer markets, a number that will likely grow over time.

Mike Abramsky, RBC
Apple is now benefiting from what we are dubbing a “Cascade of Cool”–three strong, synergistic product cycles–iPhone, iPad and Mac, combining together synergistically to drive the strongest outperformance in 4 years–with more to come, as Apple remains well positioned against large, addressable markets. Additional drivers/catalysts expected include international rollouts, voice to Smartphone adoption, PC to Mac migration, enterprise adoption.

Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank
While current quarter results were very impressive, we see open runway for the 3 major product cycles ramping in C2H10 and beyond which should drive continued momentum. The iPad is off to a very strong start with demand characterized by Apple as “amazing” with widespread appeal to the mass market (i.e. already moved beyond “early adopters”). iPhone 4 demand is outstripping supply despite widely publicized antenna concerns (which we expect to dissipate). Both products continue to ramp internationally (iPhone with 154 carriers in 88 countries) while iPad will be available in 9 additional countries by July 23rd. Finally, we expect the recently refreshed MacBook lineup (and future updates) to perform well in the back-to-school and holiday seasons.

Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer
We were expecting Apple to deliver a strong F3Q10. But we hadn’t girded ourselves for a mammoth revenue forecast, and neither, we believe, had the Street. To those (like us) who fretted that Antennagate might hamper iPhone sales, Apple’s guidance seems to say “antennagate schmantennagate.” Apple is seeing a swell of demand across its product lines and increasingly compelling evidence that the iPhone has unleashed a halo effect in the international markets. These are facts on the ground that even Apple’s stubbornly bearish guidance can’t resist.

Charlie Wolf, Needham and Co.
This is the Apple story in a nutshell. The company remains a small fish in some very large ponds. Despite a quadrupling of shipments over the past several years, the Mac, the major surprise in the third quarter with record shipments of 3.5 million, still commands a small share of the PC market. The iPhone’s share of the fast growing smartphone market is likewise comparatively small. And while the iPad is in a class of its own, it’s beginning to cannibalize the much larger netbook PC market. Indeed, the iPad has jumped to the mainstream market, passing through the early adopter market in an instant.

Maynard Um, UBS
Guidance was much stronger than expected as the rev outlook of ~$18b was uncharacteristically higher (by $1bn) than Street ests. We believe AAPL typically guides to a conservatively achievable target, making guidance all the more impressive. With AAPL selling nearly every iPad/iPhone 4 produced, key variable to magnitude of pot’l upside will likely be the pace of capacity increases.

Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley
The market underestimates the earnings power of Apple’s mobile Internet devices. We view the combination of new product launches, broader distribution (carrier, international, enterprise), more attractive pricing and strong upgrade rates as the key demand drivers over the next two years. Additionally, we believe iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad margins will remain above the corporate average, driving EPS upside as mix improves.

As you can see, Apple’s financial performance has sent the analyst community into paroxysms of praise. Not a week after its Antennagate press conference, the company already seems to have extricated itself from the public relations quagmire surrounding the iPhone 4’s reception woes.

As RBC analyst Abramsky quipped, there’s no deodorant like success.

Waiting for WinMo

John Paczkowski — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:30:15 +0000

Windows Mobile’s long march into irrelevance continues apace with no apparent change in tack. Certainly, the launch of Windows Mobile 6.5 in September–a superficial, stop-gap point release–did little to convince anyone that Microsoft (MSFT) will ever deliver on its promise of a “modern” mobile operating system.

And now, with the official release of Windows Mobile 7 reportedly delayed until late 2010, you’ve got to wonder if the company hasn’t already blown its last chance at a comeback in the mobile space. As Strategic News Service analyst Mark Anderson recently told the New York Times, “It’s time to declare Microsoft a loser in phones. Just get out of Dodge.”

That’s a contentious argument and one to which Microsoft will likely pay little attention. Though perhaps it should, because according to the latest figures from IDC as reported by Needham analyst Charlie Wolf, the company’s mobile business is collapsing. Windows Mobile’s share of the smartphone market fell to 9.6 percent in September from 13.4 percent a year ago. That’s about a 25 percent year-over-year decline.

In the United States, marketshare for the OS has fallen from 32.1 percent in March 2007 to just 13.1 percent in September 2009. In Western Europe, it fell from 18.5 percent to 7.0 percent during the same period. Windows Mobile fared a bit better in Latin America and the Asia Pacific, but not enough to claim a commanding market share in either region.

A grim situation, and with Windows Mobile licensees fast losing interest in the OS, it’s hard to see it changing much anytime soon. Microsoft likes to claim that it has some 30 WinMo licensees. And it does, but of those 30, two–HTC and Samsung–built 65.4 percent of the Windows Mobile devices shipped in September.

This trend is only worsening as new platforms gain traction in the market. “Many of Microsoft’s major licensees are either partially or completely abandoning ship,” Wolf explains. “Among them are Palm, which is now focused exclusively on its WebOS platform, as well as HTC, Motorola and Samsung, which have shifted their development efforts to the Android platform.”

Obviously, this doesn’t bode well for Windows Mobile 6.5 or 7.0–whenever Microsoft gets around to shipping it. Maybe it really is time to get out of Dodge.

Driven by Home Market, Mac Sales to Outpace PC Market

John Paczkowski — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:09:46 +0000

2010 will be a better year for the PC industry than 2009. And it will be even better for Apple. According to Caris & Company analyst Robert Cihra, Mac sales have outpaced the PC market as a whole by 1.8 times over the last three years, and that trend will continue in 2010.

Cihra expects Mac sales to grow by 26 percent next year, while the broader industry sees only a 16 percent increase. Growth like that would give Apple a four percent share of the market, leaving “considerable headroom” for future sales, says Cihra (see charts; click to enlarge).

Not all that surprising really. Apple (AAPL) shipped a record 3.05 million Macs in its latest quarter, a 16.4 percent increase, which far exceeded the 2.3 percent growth the PC market saw. How is the company doing it?

Simple: Apple dominates the home market. As Needham & Co. senior analyst Charlie Wolf noted in a research report earlier this week, one out every 10 dollars spent on home computers worldwide goes to Apple. And in the U.S., the company claims more than one in five.

“The twin drivers of the Mac’s rebound were the home market’s continued share gains in the PC market and the Mac’s share gains in the home market itself,” Wolf wrote. “Shipments in the worldwide home market increased 18.1 percent compared to an 11.5 percent decline in all other PC segments, while Mac shipments in the home market increased 28.8 percent. In the Western European home market, shipments rose an impressive 58.9 percent.”

Given Wolf’s analysis and Cihra’s prediction, it will be interesting to see what sort of marker share Apple ends up with come 2011.

[Image Credit: Apple Insider and Needham & Co.]

What's Up With Isilon Systems?

Eric Savitz — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 23:06:30 +0000

Big move today in Isilon Systems (ISLN): shares of the storage systems company have jumped $1.08, or 19.9 percent, to $6.49, on volume of more than 660,000 shares, or more than 4x the daily average. Today’s rise boosts the company’s three-day rally to 33 percent.

So, what’s going on here?

Well, here’s what I know.

Chris Blessington, the company’s senior VP of marketing and communications, notes in an interview with Tech Trader Daily that management has been on the road getting the word out to investors, press, analysts and customers about the company’s big push into the virtualization market, where it is taking on NetApp (NTAP). Blessington notes that the company was in New York on Monday and Tuesday talking to potential investors in a series of meetings arranged by Needham & Co.

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Blockbuster: Needham Initiates at "Hold"

Tiernan Ray — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:36:54 +0000

On the heels of Netflix’s (NFLX) problems last week getting DVDs out the door to subscribers, Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf initiated coverage this morning of Blockbuster (BBI) with a “Hold” rating. Wolf says that while the company is throwing lots of things at the wall to “see if it sticks,” it’s not clear the company will get the increase in same-store sales it needs to offset the drag on earnings from its 6,000 retail outlets. He did not offer a target price.

“Blockbuster’s major problem lies in its base of 6,000 stores,” writes Wolf. “The company’s challenge and opportunity is wrapped up in the relatively large fixed expenses entailed in operating its stores.” Blockbuster revenue barely covers the cost of running the stores, but even a modest tick up in same-store sales could “transform a basically break-even operation into a highly profitable one,” writes Wolf.

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Anadigics: Sell-Off Overdone, Says Needham, as It Cuts Price Target From $14 to $6

Tiernan Ray — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 22:14:51 +0000

Talk about the horse and the barn door.

Amid a 38-percent plunge in shares of chipmaker Anadigics (ANAD) following a gloomy pre-announcement last night, analyst Pierre MacCagno of Needham & Company today reiterated his “strong buy” rating on the stock while cutting his price target from $14 to $6. Thanks for the heads-up.

To recap, Anadigics yesterday announced that for its current third fiscal quarter, cellphone makers have shown less demand for its chips, and the company is putting off some chip production, leading it to revise its revenue expectation from a range of $75 million to $81 million, given back on July 22, to $62 million to $65 million. Ouch!

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Palm: Hey … Hello? Excuse Me … Over Here!

John Paczkowski — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 23:30:25 +0000

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? And if Palm (PALM) announces a Centro price cut on International iPhone Day, does anyone care?

The answer to the first philosophical riddle is debatable. The answer to the second?

Well, did you know that AT&T began peddling Palm Centros in its stores today with a new electric blue color and a $70 price tag? I bet AT&T (T) customers walking right by them on their way to pay for their new iPhone 3G didn’t either.

“They took the wrong day to do it,” said Charlie Wolf, a wireless analyst at Needham & Co. “It’s going to be drowned out by the hoopla around the iPhone.”