AllThingsD » PCs

HP CEO Whitman Earned One Dollar Plus $16 Million in 2011

Arik Hesseldahl — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 15:27:02 +0000

Hewlett-Packard released its annual proxy statement this morning, which, among other things, gives a look at what its top five executives made last year. Here’s the rundown:

CEO Meg Whitman, who upon becoming CEO agreed to take an annual base salary of $1, received more than $16 million worth of stock awards. Add on another $372,598 in other compensation, and the total value of her package was north of $16.5 million. Much of that other compensation stemmed from the period when Whitman was a director on HP’s board, and before she was CEO.

Under her employment contract, Whitman received an option to purchase 1.9 million shares of HP stock at a strike price equal to the value of the share price on the date of the grant, and subject to vesting requirements over time. As of today, 1.9 million shares would be worth almost $55 million. Whitman, the filing says, was the only one among the company’s named executive officers to receive an options award during 2011.

The filing also shows that CFO Cathie Lesjak made a base salary of $825,000, plus $9.3 million in stock-based compensation, $679,000 in incentive pay and $101,500 in other compensation, for a total of more than $11 million.

Todd Bradley, executive vice president and head of the Personal Systems Group, the division that HP briefly considered spinning out last year, made a base salary of $850,000, plus $9.3 million in stock-based compensation. He received $464,457 in incentive pay, plus $105,000 in other compensation, for a total just shy of $10.7 million.

Vyomesh “VJ” Joshi, the executive president and head of the Imaging and Printing Group, got an $850,000 salary, too, and nearly $8 million in stock awards, plus $638,355 in incentive pay, for a total of $9.8 million.

Shane Robison, the former chief strategy officer who retired last year, received a base salary of $781,250, plus stock awards worth $7.6 million and $606,506 in incentive pay, for a total of $9 million.

Finally, we have a full accounting of what former CEO Léo Apotheker made for his 11 months of service at HP’s helm. The full amount was $30.4 million. The precise amount had been the subject of some guesswork based on less-than-complete HP filings made around the time of Apotheker’s departure. The filings netted for HP a dubious award for “Worst Footnote of the Year” over at Morningstar’s Footnoted blog. My best guess had been in the $28 million to $33 million range.

Apotheker’s compensation breaks down like so:

$1,152,770 in base salary.
A $6.4 million bonus, of which $4 million was a signing bonus when he joined HP, and $2.4 million paid under the terms of his separation agreement.
Stock awards worth $17,660,759.
$5.2 million in “other compensation.” Within that was $2.9 million in relocation expenses related to Apotheker’s move from France to California and back; $1.7 million in “miscellaneous,” the majority of which, as explained in a footnote, was a “reimbursement for foregone non-competition payments that would have otherwise been payable by his former employer,” which refers to the software company SAP, where Apotheker was co-CEO.
Another $25,000 representing his personal use of HP aircraft.

Seven Questions for Bill Veghte, Hewlett-Packard's New Chief Strategy Officer

Arik Hesseldahl — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:25:03 +0000

Earlier this week, Hewlett-Packard gave Bill Veghte, its executive vice president for software, a new title: Chief Strategy Officer. The job has been vacant since Shane Robison retired last year.

Veghte joined HP in 2010 after 20 years at Microsoft, where he managed the $15 billion Windows business and oversaw the launch of Windows 7. At HP, he has been credited with growing its software revenue by 18 percent last year.

Given Veghte’s history as a software guy, his appointment to this role can’t help but be seen as a key signal by CEO Meg Whitman of the role she sees software playing in HP’s strategy going forward. That was one of the things I asked Veghte about when we spoke by phone earlier this week.

AllThingsD: What, in your view, is the role of the chief strategy officer at HP, and what do you expect it to entail in the coming year?

Bill Veghte: As we’re out talking to customers, they’d like to buy more from HP; they’d like HP to be more successful. They look at the advances we’re making in networking or storage or printers, but they want to know why the whole is greater than the sum of is parts. What is HP’s strategy for continued leadership in the market transitions that are going on? And some customers would say that where HP is concerned, that’s not a fully realized opportunity.

And you’re coming at it from the software part of the business, and we’ve heard from Meg saying she’d like to grow opportunities in software. Your appointment, to me, sends a bit of a signal that software is going to be a big part of HP’s strategy to get things turned around. Is that accurate?

I think, certainly, as I talk to Meg and Ray [Lane, HP chairman], and with the members of the executive committee, I’ve found that this is a catalyzing role. If done right, there are different models of strategy in different Fortune 500 companies. And the one that makes sense here is catalyzing with other business units. Whether that’s Vijay Joshi in printing and imaging, or with Todd Bradley in PCs, or John Visentin in the enterprise group, there’s a strategy that each one of those is trying, and which is accretive to a whole that is greater than the sum of the parts. And so, to the extent that software is glue or networking is glue, I think it’s a statement that has more to do with a pan-HP strategy than something that’s specific to software.

What’s Job One, starting on your first day?

Job One is making sure that as we have those conversations with customers, they see an HP that is unified around a set of constructs and offerings that deliver what they need. It’s different from having offerings that are, by themselves, individually great. It’s about having unifying themes and constructs.

It seems that you’re talking about finding a way to routinely and thoughtfully combine different things that HP makes or does, in ways they aren’t being done now. Is that what you’re getting at?

I think that very accurately characterizes the opportunity. When we talk to the leadership team, we hear a lot of the same thing. There is a lot of great stuff within HP, whether you get that in terms of market position, or IP, or people. I like how you put that: How do you routinely and thoughtfully combine things, particularly in light of the market inflections that are happening. We are in a tectonic shift, and that can be an opportunity, if you clearly spell out the value proposition for customers. Not only in each one of the units, but where you’re thoughtfully combining them so that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

I thought of an example around meeting the needs of the market. There was an IHS iSuppli report out earlier this week about cloud servers, which are growing. But customers are going to Taiwanese ODM companies to get customized products, while at the same time cloud servers are growing generally. Is this the sort of thing that might affect HP?

I was talking to Dave Donatelli [general manager of Enterprise Servers] about this recently. It’s interesting, because it seems like in more recent months it has flipped back, because of the integration within that customization. A great example that Dave and I have been working on is the whole cloud system piece. You’ve got a lot of great stuff in automation and orchestration software that is inherently cross-platform, and which crosses virtualization engines and marrying that deeply with the converged infrastructure. We’re the only company that can give you a single stack, soup to nuts, from a single vendor. The core construct is that there’s a lot of private cloud build-out going on, and those customers who are doing it are saying they don’t want to be the systems integrator for six different vendors, and they also prefer not to be locked in to a single vertical stack. That’s a huge advantage for us. And to your point about routinely and thoughtfully combining, we should do exactly that. It’s been doing well for us in the marketplace, but how do you make that routine against the opportunities we see in the marketplace?

You spent about 20 years at Microsoft. How does that inform what you’re bringing to this job?

At the core, any of these jobs are about identifying and exploiting market shifts for customers. I had the privilege of having a front-row seat during some big marketplace disruptions, and helping catalyze businesses and delivering superior market positions and solutions. It’s all about handling change, and turning it into an opportunity.

Who Says Intel Is Weak? Just Look at Those Crazy Numbers!

Arik Hesseldahl — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 02:00:21 +0000

Chipmaker Intel has grown its annual revenue by nearly $20 billion in two years. Let that thought sink in for a minute.

In 2011, it crossed the threshold of $50 billion in annual sales for the first time, having hit the $40 billion mark only last year. This came after a tough year — 2009 — during which sales declined a bit to $35 billion, down from $37 billion in 2008. But the larger point is clear: Intel continues to be a significant growth machine in a tech ecosystem that is supposed to be on the decline.

Who says so? “The experts.” Earlier this month, Gartner and IDC both reported what they described as the second-worst year for PC sales growth in recorded history, second only to the doldrums of 2001, when the world was beset by the dotcom crash, the onset of the global war on terror and general recession, all in one. This came after the same two outfits made similarly depressing predictions for worldwide IT spending.

Intel’s results tell a different story. Consider its strengths: Sales in its data-center group — chips being sold to companies building servers that will be used to power data and applications running on the Internet — grew 17 percent year on year to north of $10 billion. And the lowly PC? The machine that is said to be on the decline by so many people who claim to know what’s going on? Sales in Intel’s PC client group grew by more than $5 billion year on year to north of $35 billion.

How can that be possible? It’s an argument that Intel has been making for some time now, and is now becoming familiar: Persistent strength in emerging markets. As Intel CEO Paul Otellini said on a conference call with analysts today, emerging markets, where household incomes are improving to the point that consumers are able to buy their first PCs, are accounting for two out of every three units of incremental microprocessor demand. Which means that for every three chips of new growth sold in a year, two are sold in an emerging market.

PC sales in China, by Intel’s reckoning, grew 15 percent, and as yet have only achieved a household penetration rate of 35 percent, which says there’s lots of room still to grow. By comparison, the U.S. market is 90 percent penetrated, meaning nearly everyone who wants a PC has one. India grew 22 percent; Indonesia, 37 percent.

Here’s another really interesting metric that should give you some food for thought: In 2012, Intel will spend $12.5 billion on capital expenditures. That’s more than twice what it spent last year. What is it spending so lavishly on? Four new chip factories — in Oregon, Arizona, China and Israel — which, when completed, will turn out chips built on the very latest, edge-of-reality technology, where chips have transistors and other elements on them that are at the 14-nanometer scale.

How small is 14 nanometers? About one-fifth the size of a typical virus cell, and only slightly bigger than the thickness of the cell wall of a typical germ. Next year, there will be four factories, employing thousands of people, turning out thousands — and later millions — of these miniscule fragments of silicon that arguably constitute some of the most complex implements mankind has ever built.

And Intel does this profitably, which is so difficult and requires such financial scale that most companies that make other kinds of chips long ago gave up running their own factories and farmed the work of actually building them to other companies. Intel is so good at it that its gross margins in 2011 were 62.5 percent. Its full profit for the year was nearly $13 billion on $54 billion in sales.

Yes, we beat on Intel for not having conquered the smartphone industry or the tablet industry as readily as it spent the 1990s bending the PC industry to its will. There is a school of thought that says Intel is less relevant today than it was, say, five years ago, and that its anemic presence in the future of personal computing — smartphones and tablets — is all the evidence one needs to render that judgement. In fairness, smartphones and tablets are still on the rise, and Intel is starting to show some promising progress, though its competition and an industry-wide preference for chips based on the ARM architecture will be difficult to dislodge.

Still, it’s a little hard to find much fault with Intel, when the numbers so clearly demonstrate that, despite the conventional wisdom, it is clearly at the height of its powers.

Intel Thrives in Tough Quarter, Expects Gains in Mobile Chips

Arik Hesseldahl — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 22:32:27 +0000

Despite a significant supply chain disruption in the PC business, Intel has managed once again to surprise everyone with its luck in selling chips to PC and server vendors.

The company’s profit climbed by nearly 6 percent in the quarter, despite persistent worries that demand for personal computers is down generally in the face of worldwide economic uncertainty, the popularity of tablet devices like Apple’s iPad, and smartphones in which Intel’s chips are not a significant factor.

Yet, as has been the case for the last several quarters, Intel knows the demand for its global markets — specifically Brazil, Russia, India, and China — far better than any industry analyst, and its executives, especially CEO Paul Otellini, have seemed to enjoy bursting the bubbles of the IDCs and Gartners of the world, who continue to preach a catechism of PC doom.

It’s important for the wider tech industry, because if Intel is healthy, it says a lot about the health of the rest of tech. If PCs are selling well, that means consumers and companies are buying them, either to replace new machines or buying a PC for the first time. And if PCs are selling well, then servers are selling well. Behind all that talk about cloud computing and cloud services are physical servers sitting in a data center somewhere, usually containing Intel chips.

The earnings conference call is about to start, so we’ll get some better indications about how and why Intel managed to surprise the Street once again.

2:35 pm: Ah, joining the conference call in progress. CEO Paul Otellini is speaking and, naturally, he’s crowing about Intel landing a chip in a Lenovo smartphone announced at CES last week.

“In the first quarter, we completed the acquisitions of McAfee and Intel Mobile Communications, formerly of Infineon. They will allow us to extend our strategies across computing.”

He’s recounting highlights of the past fiscal year. During Q4, Intel acquired Telap, which specializes in location-based technologies.

Now he’s talking about a smartphone reference design, basically a board around which a phone maker can build and customize. In the reference design is an Intel Medfield chip. Also, a strategic relationship with Motorola Mobility. “While the Lenovo and Motorola designs are first steps, we’re not done making announcements in the space.”

Now he’s talking about more chips for 2012. For example, 70 Ultrabooks are coming to market this year.

2:39 pm: CFO Stacy Smith is speaking. Nice gross margins of 65.5 percent, which were in the high end of the range. That’s Intel’s speciality — efficiency.

Smith: We saw a reduction of orders for microprocessors as a result of the Thailand flooding. The flooding didn’t affect sales directly, he says.

Smith: Q1 revenue will be down a little more from the average seasonal decline, as the flooding will continue to affect sales.

Smith: 2012 growth of revenue in the high end of single digits. Capital spending of $12.5 billion, in order to build a fancy new fab.

Smith: We continue to see strong results in emerging markets, as increased incomes allow more people to afford PCs.

Time for Q&A with the analysts.

First question from Citi: He’s asking about gross-margin projections and revenues. What is the PC forecast assumption that underlies that?

Smith: It will play out similar to this year. There will be some unit growth, and we’ll benefit from a rich product mix. The high single-digit number in perspective. Strip out some things from 2011, we expect it to come down, in part because of lower GDP growth, but we see the same kind of trends in 2012 that we saw in 2011.

Citi analyst asks if the unit costs per chip are coming down.

Smith: That’s a normal phenomenon as we ramp factories to a new process, and then the cost comes down over the course of the year.

A question from Jefferies: As you get more success in the smartphone and tablet markets, I’m wondering if it’s your intention to get more chips up and down the stack, or is it different from PCs?

Otellini: Our intention is to participate broadly in all three of those markets. In tablets, we’ll be well-positioned for that. Who knows where the prices go over time, but we’d use the advanced silicon integration capabilities that we have to drive the costs down. We’re coming in at the top of the smartphone market; we’re aiming at best performance and very good battery life. And the Infineon acquisition has given us a very good position in basic phones. They shipped about 400 million modems.

Jefferies: Do they inherently carry more profitability than the PC processor business?

Otellini: The other guys have lower margins. But we’ll get paid twice. We’ll get paid as the foundry, but also for the architecture.

2:50 pm: Question from Bank of America: There were a lot of announcements on Ultrabooks from CES. Will they cannibalize notebook sales?

Otellini: I have not seen this level of excitement since before Centrino, which was in 2003. Initially, you will see this will be a replacement of existing notebook sales. People will trade up. As we move through 2012 and into 2013 as Windows 8 machines roll out, you have the possibility or even the probability of many of those machines incorporating touch. At that point, the machines incorporate the best of both the PC and the tablet. I don’t know how that plays out, but we’ll be well-positioned.

Question from JMP Securities: I know you don’t guide by segment, but what’s happening on the data center side of the business? And how does Romley change that? (Romley is a future server chip.)

Smith: Let me do a higher-level look. The data-center business can be pretty lumpy, but on a secular basis, we’re pretty confident in the growth trends.

Otellini: We’re seeing stronger growth for Romley than we saw for Nehalem at the same point in its lifespan, two years ago. Initially, it will not drive the same kind of replacement cycle that Nehalem did. It will drive replacement for high-capacity needs. I think this product is the most well-rounded in the genre so far.

Question from Deutsche Bank: Overall, as we look at flood impact, how should we see that snapping back, and against the backdrop of the seasonality?

Otellini: There are more moving pieces as I look out over the next 11 months. Our view is that the industry seems to be hitting the bottom of their output trough in Jan. and Feb. Everyone who seems to want to buy a PC has been able to. There are some stockouts in particular SKUs. You will see some compression of the supply chain. We think there is likely to be some refilling of the pipes in the second quarter, and into the third quarter. Or people will learn to live with leaner supply chains, which is always good for us.

3:00 pm: Question from Goldman Sachs: What’s the incremental growth in capacity? And what is the initial assumption on factory loadings?

Smith: Let’s talk about what’s driving the capital spending. $12.5 billion is a big number, but you have to take in the context of how our business has grown. Then it makes sense. I think my depreciation as a percent of revenue stays in a healthy range. In terms of the makeup of specific capital spending, it’s a two-year cycle as we’re building buildings. That part starts to come down in 2013. Buildings are depreciated over a longer period of time.

In terms of factory utilization, we’re running full-out today. We’re just in the beginning of the 22-nanometer cycle. We took advantage of the flooding by taking some older equipment offline sooner than we would have otherwise. We’re selling every 22-nanometer unit we can get out there.

3:06 pm: Totally missed the question from UBS. Sorry, UBS.

Question from Credit Suisse about Ultrabooks. Are there any sort of milestones you expect — perhaps, say, percentage of total notebooks?

Otellini: Starting with the mix. Core processors are about 70 percent of our mix, and that’s historically high for our premium brand. What we can’t yet predict is the mix between i3, i5 and i7. As we move toward the second half of the year, the mix comes down to i3. In terms of a target, our goal would be to exit the year with about 40 percent of consumer notebooks being Ultrabooks.

3:11 pm: J.P. Morgan asks if Intel is going to continue to spend like a drunken sailor on capital expenditures and R&D.

Smith says Intel is making some important investments this year, but they will come down from here.

A question from Nomura: Android tablet sales seemed like a disappointment in 2011. What was the issue, and is there a reason to be more optimistic this year?

Otellini: They were where I thought they would be, but I was below where others were. Until you get to Ice Cream Sandwich, you’re at a comparison with Apple’s iPad. The other part of that test is the Windows 8 tablets that are being queued up for production. I don’t think anything about the tablet market is settled yet. The jury is out on the long-term segmentation by form factor.

Ew. Questions from Barclays are being turned back. Smith just won’t go where he wants them to go. Too granular.

3:16 pm: Otellini: The data-center storage is not your grandmother’s data-center business of before. Back to lumpy data-center sales, when Facebook or Apple turns on a new data center. We’re seeing a change to the linearity to data-center sales. Expect more short-term lumpiness, but stick to the year-on-year growth.

One more question to go. And it’s from Caris & Co. He’s asking about capex again.

Smith: If you look at spending for capex in 2012, a historically large part of it is the four-factory model. From here, our capex will be a function of two things — the unit growth we see and the speed with which we bring our process technologies to the leading edge. We balance off those decisions as we go forward. With a big increase in units, we’ll spend the capex to support it.

Caris: You’ve taken on some debt in the quarter, as you look for flexibility to buy back more stock.

Smith: Our balance sheet supports taking on more debt, and we certainly have the capability of doing so. We’ve said in the past, our first priority is investing in the business. We bought McAfee and Infineon. We had a significant increase in dividends in 2011, and as a percent of free cash flow. We did take advantage of low interest rates and high-dividend yield to buy back a lot more stock.

And that is the end of the call. Good night!

Somehow, Intel Beats the Street

Arik Hesseldahl — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 21:20:58 +0000

Intel earnings have just crossed the wires and there’s a bit of a surprise in there. Somehow the world’s biggest supplier of chips for computers, amid a shortage of hard drives that is killing the supply and demand for its chips, managed to beat the consensus of analysts.

Sales for the fourth quarter came in at $13.9 billion, and per share earnings were 64 cents, for a net of $3.4 billion. For the full year Intel finished with sales of $54 billion and a net of $12.9 billion and EPS of $2.39, all of them records. So even amid the diminished expectations of the moment, Intel is sounding the victory trumpets, and not unreasonably.

The statement is below. Come back in a little while and I’ll be live blogging the earnings conference call.

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 19, 2012 – Intel Corporation today reported full-year revenue of $54 billion, operating income of $17.5 billion, net income of $12.9 billion and EPS of $2.39 — all records. The company generated approximately $21 billion in cash from operations, paid dividends of $4.1 billion and used $14.1 billion to repurchase 642 million shares of stock.

For the fourth quarter, Intel posted revenue of $13.9 billion, operating income of $4.6 billion, net income of $3.4 billion and EPS of 64 cents. The company generated approximately $6.6 billion in cash from operations, paid dividends of $1.1 billion and used $4.1 billion to repurchase 174 million shares of stock.

“2011 was an exceptional year for Intel,” said Paul Otellini, Intel president and CEO. “With outstanding execution the company performed superbly, growing revenue by more than $10 billion and eclipsing all annual revenue and earnings records. With a tremendous product and technology pipeline for 2012, we’re excited about the global growth opportunities presented by Ultrabook systems, the data center, security and the introduction of Intel-powered smartphones and tablets.”

Business Outlook
Intel’s Business Outlook does not include the potential impact of any mergers, acquisitions, divestitures or other business combinations that may be completed after Jan. 19.

Q1 2012 (GAAP, unless otherwise stated)

Revenue: $12.8 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
Gross margin percentage: 63 percent and 64 percent Non-GAAP (excluding amortization of acquisition-related intangibles), both plus or minus a couple percentage points.
R&D plus MG&A spending: approximately $4.4 billion.
Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $75 million.
Impact of equity investments and interest and other: approximately zero.

Depreciation: approximately $1.5 billion.

Full-Year 2012 (GAAP, unless otherwise stated)

Gross margin percentage: 64 percent and 65 percent Non-GAAP (excluding amortization of acquisition-related intangibles), both plus or minus a few percentage points.
Spending (R&D plus MG&A): $18.3 billion, plus or minus $200 million.
R&D spending: approximately $10.1 billion.
Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles: approximately $300 million.
Depreciation: $6.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million.
Tax Rate: approximately 29 percent.
Full-year capital spending: $12.5 billion, plus or minus $400 million.

For additional information regarding Intel’s results and Business Outlook, please see the CFO commentary at: www.intc.com/results.cfm.

Status of Business Outlook
Intel’s Business Outlook is posted on intc.com and may be reiterated in public or private meetings with investors and others. The Business Outlook will be effective through the close of business March 16 unless earlier updated; except that the Business Outlook for amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, impact of equity investments and interest and other, and tax rate, will be effective only through the close of business on Jan. 26. Intel’s Quiet Period will start from the close of business on March 16 until publication of the company’s first-quarter earnings release, scheduled for April 17. During the Quiet Period, all of the Business Outlook and other forward-looking statements disclosed in the company’s news releases and filings with the SEC should be considered as historical, speaking as of prior to the Quiet Period only, and not subject to an update by the company.

Q4 and 2011 Key Financial Information (GAAP)

Q4 Business unit revenue:

PC Client Group revenue of $9 billion, up 17 percent year-over-year.
Data Center Group revenue of $2.7 billion, up 8 percent year-over-year.
Other Intel® architecture group revenue of $1.1 billion, up 35 percent year-over-year.
Intel® Atom™ microprocessor and chipset revenue of $167 million, down 57 percent year-over-year.
McAfee Inc. and Intel Mobile Communications contributed revenue of approximately $1 billion.

Full Year Business unit revenue:

PC Client Group had revenue of $35.4 billion, up 17% from 2010.
Data Center Group had revenue of $10.1 billion, up 17% from 2010.
Other Intel architecture group had revenue of $5.0 billion, up 64% from 2010.
Intel Atom microprocessor and chipset revenue of $1.2 billion, down 25% from 2010.
McAfee Inc. and Intel Mobile Communications contributed revenue of $3.6 billion.

Risk Factors
The above statements and any others in this document that refer to plans and expectations for the first quarter, the year and the future are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “may,” “will,” “should” and their variations identify forward-looking statements. Statements that refer to or are based on projections, uncertain events or assumptions also identify forward-looking statements. Many factors could affect Intel’s actual results, and variances from Intel’s current expectations regarding such factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Intel presently considers the following to be the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company’s expectations.

Demand could be different from Intel’s expectations due to factors including changes in business and economic conditions, including supply constraints and other disruptions affecting customers; customer acceptance of Intel’s and competitors’ products; changes in customer order patterns including order cancellations; and changes in the level of inventory at customers. Uncertainty in global economic and financial conditions poses a risk that consumers and businesses may defer purchases in response to negative financial events, which could negatively affect product demand and other related matters.
Intel operates in intensely competitive industries that are characterized by a high percentage of costs that are fixed or difficult to reduce in the short term and product demand that is highly variable and difficult to forecast. Revenue and the gross margin percentage are affected by the timing of Intel product introductions and the demand for and market acceptance of Intel’s products; actions taken by Intel’s competitors, including product offerings and introductions, marketing programs and pricing pressures and Intel’s response to such actions; and Intel’s ability to respond quickly to technological developments and to incorporate new features into its products.
Intel is in the process of transitioning to its next generation of products on 22nm process technology, and there could be execution and timing issues associated with these changes, including products defects and errata and lower than anticipated manufacturing yields.
The gross margin percentage could vary significantly from expectations based on capacity utilization; variations in inventory valuation, including variations related to the timing of qualifying products for sale; changes in revenue levels; product mix and pricing; the timing and execution of the manufacturing ramp and associated costs; start-up costs; excess or obsolete inventory; changes in unit costs; defects or disruptions in the supply of materials or resources; product manufacturing quality/yields; and impairments of long-lived assets, including manufacturing, assembly/test and intangible assets.
The tax rate expectation is based on current tax law and current expected income. The tax rate may be affected by the jurisdictions in which profits are determined to be earned and taxed; changes in the estimates of credits, benefits and deductions; the resolution of issues arising from tax audits with various tax authorities, including payment of interest and penalties; and the ability to realize deferred tax assets.
Gains or losses from equity securities and interest and other could vary from expectations depending on gains or losses on the sale, exchange, change in the fair value or impairments of debt and equity investments; interest rates; cash balances; and changes in fair value of derivative instruments.
The majority of Intel’s non-marketable equity investment portfolio balance is concentrated in companies in the flash memory market segment, and declines in this market segment or changes in management’s plans with respect to Intel’s investments in this market segment could result in significant impairment charges, impacting restructuring charges as well as gains/losses on equity investments and interest and other.

Intel’s results could be affected by adverse economic, social, political and physical/infrastructure conditions in countries where Intel, its customers or its suppliers operate, including military conflict and other security risks, natural disasters, infrastructure disruptions, health concerns and fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
Expenses, particularly certain marketing and compensation expenses, as well as restructuring and asset impairment charges, vary depending on the level of demand for Intel’s products and the level of revenue and profits.

Intel’s results could be affected by the timing of closing of acquisitions and divestitures.
Intel’s results could be affected by adverse effects associated with product defects and errata (deviations from published specifications), and by litigation or regulatory matters involving intellectual property, stockholder, consumer, antitrust and other issues, such as the litigation and regulatory matters described in Intel’s SEC reports. An unfavorable ruling could include monetary damages or an injunction prohibiting us from manufacturing or selling one or more products, precluding particular business practices, impacting Intel’s ability to design its products, or requiring other remedies such as compulsory licensing of intellectual property.

A detailed discussion of these and other factors that could affect Intel’s results is included in Intel’s SEC filings, including the report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Oct. 1, 2011.

2011 Was the Second-Worst Year for U.S. PC Sales in History, Except at Apple

Arik Hesseldahl — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 15:52:29 +0000

Last year, for the first time since 2001, the U.S. market for personal computers shrank, according to separate research reports issued yesterday by the research firms Gartner and IDC. The year 2011 was, by IDC’s reckoning, the second-worst year in the PC industry’s history.

U.S. consumers and businesses bought 71.3 million PCs, representing a drop of nearly 5 percent over 2010, when they bought more than 75 million, IDC said. So much for the year.

And the fourth quarter, traditionally one of the industry’s strong points, wasn’t much help. Shipments of PCs in the fourth quarter declined by nearly 7 percent, according to IDC; Gartner said they fell by 6 percent. Hewlett-Packard saw its U.S. shipments drop by 25 percent in the IDC report; Dell by 5 percent; Acer by 14 percent; and Toshiba by 2 percent.

HP’s flirtation with spinning off its PC division last year hurt sales, as businesses and consumers lost confidence in the company. The main beneficiary of that appears to have been China’s Lenovo, the world’s No. 2 PC maker, which saw its shipments, on a global basis, surge by 37 percent, though it’s not much of a player in the U.S. market.

For the full year, HP saw its shipments fall by nearly 5 percent; Dell’s fell by more than 8 percent; and Acer’s fell 30 percent in the U.S.

So who grew? Apple. It saw its shipments grow by 18 percent in the quarter, according to IDC, and by 21 percent in the Gartner report. As of the end of the year, IDC said, Apple’s share of the U.S. market amounted to 10.7 percent, which is up from 8.8 percent a year ago.

Microsoft Execs Warn PC Industry Outlook May Be Worse Than Feared

Matt Jarzemsky — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 00:35:23 +0000

Microsoft executives warned that industry analysts’ expectations for a 1 percent decline in fourth-quarter personal-computer shipments may be too optimistic, as the aftermath of flooding in Thailand disrupts the supply of a key computer component.

The remarks suggest PC makers continue to struggle with production issues stemming from Thailand’s worst flooding in decades, which had caused the shutdown of a large chunk of the world’s hard-disk drive manufacturing operations. Meanwhile, the rise in tablets is weighing on demand for PCs and economic concerns are mounting, in part because of Europe’s debt problems.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

PCs Are Not Under Threat From Tablets or Smartphones

Bo Kim — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 17:25:39 +0000

… think of these small mobile devices as creating the next wave of users who will want larger-screen devices.

– Dell CEO Michael Dell

The World Is Overflowing With Memory Chips

Arik Hesseldahl — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 23:00:03 +0000

If you haven’t had your fill of gloomy indicators for the state of the tech ecosystem in the new year, here’s another: DRAM chips are oversupplied.

This is, of course, bad news if you’re in the business of making the commodity Dynamic Random Access Memory chips that go into PCs, servers and smartphones. A state of oversupply coupled with weak demand means the chips command lower prices than they otherwise would. The situation can be good, however, if you’re buying computers, because memory upgrades get cheaper.

The problem, as related by the research firm IHS iSuppli, is a rise in inventories of chips that its analyst Mike Howard describes as “alarming.”

ISuppli measures how much unsold inventory the chipmakers themselves have in their warehouses — which include Micron Technology in the U.S., Elpida in Japan, and the South Korean pair of Samsung and Hynix. The higher the number is, the more intense the downward price pressure becomes.

The stockpile of DRAM chips as of the end of the third quarter of 2011 stood at 12.8 weeks, which is nearly a third higher than it had been three months earlier and double what it was in early 2010. It’s also a lot higher than the typical average of 9.2 weeks.

There are a lot of factors creating the glut. Tablets like the iPad and Kindle Fire are eating into notebook sales, and don’t require nearly as much DRAM as notebooks do. And new operating systems don’t require the incremental boost in onboard memory as had been typical.

Nor is the economic uncertainty caused by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe helping. Flooding in Thailand has also disrupted the supply of hard drives which has in turn affected the overall demand for PCs and servers. Computer makers who can’t get hard drives simply won’t build as many computers, and thus won’t be buying the DRAM they otherwise would be.

Something similar happened in 2008 when the global recession sapped computer demand and caused a pileup of DRAM chips that lasted nine quarters. This cycle could turn out to be worse, iSuppli says.

Overall, iSuppli reckons the market for DRAM chips was worth about $6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011, down by 11 percent from the prior quarter, and it’s only heading further south. The worst, Howard says, is apparently yet to come.

If the economy turns upward, or even is perceived to be on the mend, the glut can work its way down pretty quickly. In 2009 the stockpile dropped by more than half over three quarters.

And if it seems obvious that these chip companies should just stop making DRAM and let demand catch up with supply, it’s actually not that easy. Chip factories, or fabs, contain billions of dollars worth of manufacturing equipment running processes that are difficult to stop and start. Also, it’s more expensive to have them sitting there doing nothing but depreciating than turning out a product that brings in revenue, even if it’s running at break-even or a slight loss.

Americans Played Anything but Social Games During the Holidays

Tricia Duryee — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 15:30:18 +0000

The number of people playing games on Facebook tanked last week, as some game makers were unable to capitalize on people’s downtime during the holidays.

The drop-off in players affected almost all developers, but did not hit all titles equally.

For example, Electronic Arts saw 1.2 million fewer monthly users over the past week for its top title The Sims Social; Zynga’s Empire & Allies game lost one million monthly users, and its newest game, CastleVille, lost 900,000, according to AppData, which publishes such information.

On the flip side, many of the games that performed well were old favorites; these logically would have longer-term, more-committed players, who would make a point of returning during the holidays to take advantage of seasonal promotions.

The games that benefited from the holidays include Zynga’s Words With Friends and FarmVille, which gained 1.3 million and 800,000 monthly active users, respectively, according to Inside Social Games. Other gainers rounding out the Top 5 were Tetris Online’s Tetris Battle; Wooga’s kingdom-building game, Magic Land; and Men vs. Women, a role-playing game by Social Point.

Still, the general direction for the week was heading down.

That contrasts with other game platforms, such as consoles, PCs and mobile, which largely benefit from the holidays and from more free time in general.

Console games often skyrocket in popularity as kids and adults unwrap new titles for Nintendo, Xbox or PlayStation on Christmas morning.

PC gaming also typically surges during the season. EA timed the launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic ahead of the holidays, in hopes of drawing new players who would be sold on sticking around for months, after spending time on the game during their time off.

But perhaps the biggest competitor came from mobile, which benefited from breaking records for the number of new Android and iOS devices that were gifted during the holidays. Flurry reported that more than one billion apps were downloaded worldwide during the last seven days of 2011, breaking the all-time weekly record. Games are often one of the most-downloaded categories of apps.

So the more important question to ask is, why would Facebook be an exception, if other platforms performed well?

Clearly, all of the platforms are competing for a limited number of minutes in the day, and so are other forms of media, like the Internet, TV and the movies. But when it comes to Facebook, a larger driver may be the environment — after all, it’s no big secret that a lot of social networking and social gaming is done in the workplace.

In a study conducted last summer, advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi found that 47 percent of respondents said they play social games at work during a typical day, and that 28 percent play for at least 30 minutes. Without that dedicated time in front of the computer every day, people may have had the opportunity to be more obsessed with other screens, such as phones or TVs.

Another potential reason that Facebook and social games did not see a lift from the holidays is because they have not yet figured out how to capitalize on the Christmas economy.

For years, console games have been timed with the end of the year, so they could be wrapped up and placed under the tree. More recently, smartphones and gift cards for music and apps have helped mobile prosper. Perhaps there wasn’t enough hype and promotion for social games to compete for people’s dollars.

Regardless of the reasons, the drop may ultimately be a small a blip on the radar screen for most game developers, who also see several spikes in activity during the year.

The bigger impact may be felt at Facebook, which takes a 30 percent cut of all virtual goods sold inside social games, and would feel the cumulative impact across all of the games.

A Look Back at IBM's Palmisano Era and the China Strategy

Arik Hesseldahl — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 17:33:14 +0000

Saturday was Sam Palmisano’s last day on the job as CEO of IBM, and Sunday was Ginny Rometty’s first.

The New York Times published something of an exit interview with Palmisano over the weekend. It read a bit like a victory lap, and that’s not undeserved. The record books will show that IBM shares during the Palmisano era (2003-2011) rose by 125 percent; sales grew from $81 billion in 2002 to an expected $107 billion; and annual profits on a per-share basis went from $3.07 to a consensus forecast of $13.38.

But it got me to thinking about one of the highlights of the Palmisano era; one that generated a great deal of attention at the time: IBM’s decision to sell its personal computer division to Lenovo, the Chinese PC maker. It was a relatively small deal, worth less than $2 billion at the time, but it was a controversial move. Despite the fact that IBM wasn’t making much money on the business, IBM PCs, especially its ThinkPad line of notebooks, were generally considered to be pretty good.

Nearly seven years later, it’s worth noting that Lenovo is now the world’s second-largest PC vendor, behind Hewlett-Packard, having vaulted past Dell earlier this year, according to the market research firm IDC. It’s also worth noting that Lenovo is in fifth place in the U.S., behind HP, Dell, Apple and Toshiba, in that order.

IBM initially owned 15 percent of Lenovo and maintained a stake in that company until February of this year, when it sold its remaining 4.3 percent shares at a profit of more than a quarter-billion dollars.

Lenovo’s biggest shareholder is Legend Holdings, of which 36 percent is owned by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a.k.a. CAS Holdings, a state-controlled entity. The state has pared back its stake, though: When the IBM-Lenovo deal was announced in 2005, Lenovo was 57 percent state-owned.

There was a lot of natural controversy, and even national security concerns in 2005, about selling so red-blooded an American product as the IBM PC to China. But there was also a solid business case to consider. The PC business was a drag on earnings because of downward price pressure exerted by Dell and all the others, and it wasn’t even leading the market, as was the case with Hewlett-Packard, which engaged in some very public contemplation about spinning off its own PC division.

But there was also a potential strategic benefit, which Michael Useem, a professor a the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Management, pointed out at the time: Making friends with China.

By selling an underperforming asset to a buyer willing to take it and run with it, IBM got solid access to the exploding Chinese market. In paraphrased remarks to the Times, Palmisano concedes the point:

Palmisano says he deflected overtures from Dell and private equity firms, preferring the sale to a company in China for strategic reasons: the Chinese government wants its corporations to expand globally, and by aiding that national goal, IBM enhanced its stature in the lucrative Chinese market, where the government still steers business.

So how has that worked out? It’s a little hard to tell from reading Big Blue’s Byzantine financial statements. In fiscal 2005, the year the deal closed, IBM reported $18.6 billion, or about 20 percent of revenue, came from the Asia-Pacific region, including China.

And though it declined to provide specific dollar amounts, it said that year that sales in China had dropped by 19 percent, but after after stripping out the PC division, would have grown by 8 percent.

For the first nine months of fiscal 2011, IBM reported that the Asia-Pacific region accounted for exactly the same dollar figure — $18.6 billion — amounting to 24 percent of its overall sales of $77.4 billion, and there’s still a quarter to go. That would put Asia on track to account for a little less than a quarter of IBM’s revenue.

In its earnings statement, IBM also makes a point of calling attention to what it calls “growth markets,” which are generally the BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China. These markets combined for 23 percent of sales in IBM’s most recent quarter.

This is about as close to understanding the size of IBM’s business in China as we’re going to get. On balance, it looks to have been a positive move, especially when you consider that if IBM had kept its PC division, it would have likely only gotten smaller and become more of a profit drag on a company that’s increasingly focused on high-margin businesses like services and consulting.

Nor can we judge by IBM’s headcount. Globally, as of the publication of its last annual report, IBM employed 426,751 people. But it has stopped providing a geographical breakdown. A report in the Times of India in 2010, mentioned by The Wall Street Journal, suggested that Big Blue’s headcount in India might be as high as 130,000; which, if true, would make it one of that country’s top 10 employers.

There is no question that IBM’s presence in China has grown. You can tell by the press releases. There was for example, a new IBM Research lab in Shanghai in 2008, and another in 2010. Just last month, IBM announced that it had closed a significant IT deal for a major health-care provider in Hong Kong, and another with a Chinese province to improve the safety of pork (which included a food-safety video I embedded below).

For better or worse, Palmisano will be remembered as the man who traded PCs for access to China. On balance, it seems to have been a good trade, but the jury is still out.

Tomorrow is the first business day of IBM’s Rometty era. Assuming she retires at age 60, a well-established IBM tradition, she’ll have about six years to make her mark. One wonders what she’ll be remembered for most.

Beyond Tablets: The Next Five Computing Form Factors

Sarah Rotman Epps — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 19:34:17 +0000

With the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2012 a few short weeks away, it’s a good time to look ahead at what’s next for consumer technology. All eyes have been on tablets: Apple sold 40 million iPads in just 18 months, with 11 million sold in this past quarter alone — phenomenal growth for a new form factor. With the Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble’s Nook Tablet finding their own successful markets, it’s easy to see why tablets attract so much attention and excitement. But computing evolution doesn’t end here — tablets, while still growing rapidly as a category, are not the final form factor.

Product strategists in the PC industry are gearing up for 2012 to be the year of the “ultrabook” — very thin, very light laptops, usually with solid-state drives (SSD), that compete with Apple’s MacBook Air — such as the Asus Zenbook and Lenovo U300s. We agree that ultrabooks’ lighter, thinner form will appeal to many consumers. Already, 21 percent of U.S. online consumers say they’re interested in owning one, according to a Forrester Research survey fielded in September. But we see the ultrabook as an evolution of the laptop rather than an entirely new form factor. So what is the next big thing in consumer computing?

The “next big thing” is likely to be many things — we anticipate accelerating form factor diversification beyond the desktops, laptops, netbooks, tablets and smartphones we have today, as we advance deeper into the Post-PC Era. Based on what we see in research and development labs, new products beginning to come to market and gaps in consumer computing experiences, we’ve identified these five form factors as the best candidates for what comes next:

Wearables: Wearable devices, or “wearables” for short, are devices worn on or near the body that sense and relay information. Many wearables, like the heads-up display (HUD) contact lenses in development at the University of Washington, are years from marketability. But other wearables are already available as consumer products, for uses such as communication and health and fitness. An increasing number of wearables in the health-and-fitness space interact with Apple iOS devices, such as the Lark Technologies vibrating wristband that doubles as an alarm clock and a sleep sensor; and BodyMedia FIT Armbands, which have four sensors to track activity, sleep and calorie intake. WIMM Labs, a Foxconn-funded start-up in Los Altos, Calif., has designed multifunctional wearables, based on Google’s Android software, that it will license to other companies.
Embedded devices: We define embedded devices as physical objects that incorporate computing processors and sensors, excluding those worn on the body, which we classify as wearables. Like wearables, embedded devices are diverse in form, ranging from devices such as Livescribe smartpens that fit into your pocket, to LG Thinq refrigerators that sit in your kitchen. Embedded devices may or may not have a display — Livescribe pens don’t; the LG Thinq appliances do. Today, embedded devices are widely used in industrial automation and automotives, and they have emerging consumer uses in home automation, entertainment and productivity.
Surfaces: Surfaces are large interactive displays, which may incorporate multitouch, voice and gesture control, facial recognition, near field communication (NFC), quick response (QR) codes or other input/output mechanisms. Today, surfaces are found mostly in public places such as hotels (Microsoft Surface tables in Sheraton bars) and conferences and events (Obscura Digital’s custom multitouch video installations), as well as in education (interactive whiteboards) and news media (red state/blue state maps), but we see potential for additional uses, especially in retail and marketing. For example, retailers such as Victoria’s Secret have commissioned the design firm frog design to create interactive displays for their retail stores. In Seoul, South Korea, retailers use surfaces to extend their reach beyond their stores: Tesco Homeplus, the No. 2 grocery retailer in South Korea, built “virtual malls” in subway stations to reach more customers without building more stores. Commuters take pictures of QR codes under the groceries they want to buy, and the groceries are delivered to their homes.
Flexible displays: Flexible displays are computing screens that can be rolled, folded or flexed. Flexible devices can take the form of personal devices, such as an e-reader, or larger surface displays, such as furniture or wallpaper. Flexible displays are likely the farthest from becoming commercialized products because of the lack of a defined use case or customer: Polymer Vision, a spinoff of Philips Electronics, promoted its flexible eBook Reader for years, but declared bankruptcy before bringing the device to market. HP has been developing printable Mylar displays that it imagines could be used for candy wrappers, armband computers for the military or living room wallpaper, but the displays are still several years from commercialization.
Miniprojectors: Miniprojectors are small devices that project a larger image onto another surface or, in the case of holographic projection, into 3-D space. Miniprojectors can be combined with cameras that recognize gesture to become interactive, similar to the Microsoft Kinect for Xbox 360. Today, miniprojectors such as the Brookstone Pocket Projector are gaining in popularity as iPhone accessories. But they’re still niche products, as consumers must purchase them separately. Apple has already filed a patent to embed interactive projectors into its iPhones, iPads and Macs. Embedded miniprojectors would appeal primarily to information workers, but there could be broader consumer uses as well, such as impromptu photo slide shows or YouTube viewing in a group.

It’s easy to read about computing wallpaper, or contact lenses with embedded heads-up displays, and think that these form factors have no bearing on what product strategists are doing today. But product strategists who see what’s coming can anticipate disruption — or even innovate and become disruptors themselves. As you think about what’s coming in 2012 and beyond, know that none of these devices will operate in isolation. The most successful products will work with other products — for example, wearables that talk to smartphones and TVs; surfaces that are activated by the presence of your smartphone. We’re living in a multidevice, multiconnection world, and the best experiences will be those that work across devices and platforms. In that sense, the next phase of the Post-PC Era doesn’t look so different from today.

Sarah Rotman Epps is a senior analyst at Forrester Research, serving consumer product strategy professionals. Follow her on Twitter at @srepps

Dell Ditches Netbooks

Lauren Goode — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 00:45:22 +0000

Dell has said it is no longer going to be making consumer netbooks, as the computer maker — and others — shift toward the emerging category of thin, powerful ultrabooks. Netbooks, which first debuted in 2007 and are typically smaller and less powerful than traditional notebooks, saw their day in the sun quickly fade following the advent of tablets. Though Dell is ditching the Inspiron Mini netbook, the company is still selling the business-aimed Latitude netbooks on Dell.com, as pointed out by The Verge.

2012: Siri Is a Stunner, Amazon Is Amazin' and Security Gets Spendy

Arik Hesseldahl — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 04:59:40 +0000

On Thursday night, I attended a dinner at New York’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel, hosted by Mark Anderson, the CEO of Strategic News Service, a newsletter that many senior tech execs subscribe to. At this annual event, which I missed last year, Anderson makes predictions concerning what he thinks will be the dominant forces shaping the technology world in the coming year. And his predictions are always interesting.

Ahead of the dinner, Anderson stopped by my office to let me have a peek at his 10 predictions, and we talked them over a bit. All 10 are below, along with some comments from Anderson that emerged from our conversation.

Before diving into the predictions, Anderson tells me there is a grand theme that unifies them all: “Integrating everything.”

What does that mean? “It means a whole lot of stuff that needs to be integrated. We don’t need anything new at all. There’s so much work that needs to be done with the existing tool sets. Steve Jobs didn’t really invent anything at all. But he was great at integrating things into a product. There’s a lot more of that work to do. We have to do it in the phone world and the TV world and the health care world. We have lots of devices and lots of chips and lots of operating systems and lots of content. The bigger question is, how do human beings use it all efficiently?”

As an example, he cites the collaboration between Nuance, the speech software company, and IBM, bringing the Watson computer of “Jeopardy” fame into the area of health care. “For the first time, the idea of evidence-based medicine won’t just be in a magazine article,” Anderson says. “A doctor will be able to pick up his phone and describe four symptoms, and find out what the likely diagnosis is, what the indications are. It’s fantastic.”

So here are those 10 predictions, with additional comments from Anderson:

1. TV becomes the new center of gravity in the tech universe. All the other devices find their niches in the TV galaxy. Microsoft’s attempt to integrate Kinect into TV is a strong if qualified success. Smart phone-TV integration software becomes a new category. Pad-TV integration becomes common.

“Apple will hustle to launch the next version of Apple TV, and it will be a roaring success and be seen as Tim Cook’s first great product success. But what it really will be is Steve’s last product.”

2. 2012 will see tectonic shifts in phone markets. “Nokia will fail to come back, which is pretty clear to everyone except the people in Finland.” Samsung, Anderson says, will retain its spot as the new global leader in mobile phones by volume, and will keep this crown despite the debut of Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7.

Meanwhile, Anderson says, Google will lose control over the Android operating system, mainly because unlicensed versions of Android will multiply in type and in installed base, especially in Asian countries. “It’s already a balkanized environment. Now Google loses control of the technology entirely. China is already running an unlicensed version of Android, and I think there will be more of that.”

Finally, the smartphone will finally emerge as the dominant category of wireless phone. “Why would you have anything else? And why would sellers of content and services want you to?” he says. “It doesn’t matter if you’re in a rich country or a poor country. This stuff is cheap.”

3. Clouds are for consumers, and for start-ups. Even as a large number of big companies move pilot projects onto external clouds, it will become clear that the real trend is for enterprise to stay away from clouds in all key areas, for reasons of both security and reliability.

“The cloud guys hate this because they want to sell to enterprises,” Anderson says. “But the security issues are becoming really intense. If you’re a CIO, it’s a terrible environment, and you’re a target, for sure, especially if you’re a company with a lot of intellectual property. I’m not implying that things like SAAS (software as a service) aren’t a big trend. But no one is going to put their valuable IP on the cloud.”

4. Security splits the tech world in two, finally getting attention from CEOs. Companies with real IP start to realize they have to “go big or go home” with their security response, and their spending on protecting their “crown jewels” rises dramatically.

5. Siri stuns the world. Siri, on Apple’s iPhone 4S, has sounded the arrival of Internet personal assistants, and the world will spend this year marveling at what Siri and its rivals can and cannot do — and what they can learn to do.

“I think we’ll see a bunch of these things,” Anderson says. “Siri will get much better. It will learn how you learn. We’ve never seen people have long-term relationships with machines before, but it will be a long-term relationship, and she will remember everything, but make good use of it. She will know you learn better by seeing than hearing, or that it takes three times to tell you something. All those things that you have to program today should be learnable. None of that has been done yet. That creates a real friendship. And I think we’re going to start seeing personal assistants not just for everyday life, but for professions like medicine or car repair. Instead of just having Siri be everything, there will be many Siris for different contexts.”

6. We enter the amazing world of Dave and HAL, as voice recognition comes of age. From hospital to car, mobile to home, Kinect to Siri, exercise to play, work to entertainment, remote control to direct action, from Microsoft to Apple, from Tellme to Nuance — the time has come for computers and humans to talk to each other. With lots of funny stories, big bloopers and amazing breakthroughs, humanity at the end of 2012 will be talking to machines in a normal voice, and it will not seem unusual, nor be the cause of unending frustration.

“The voice-recognition part is almost trivial,” Anderson says. “The important part is context-sensitive understanding. It used to be that all the researchers at Carnegie Mellon used to think that all you needed was more computing horsepower to do better at voice. It turned out that was wrong. It was right for a little while, but the real problem is context. And so, if you can build up that database where you can search it contextually for what to expect, that is where you get all the mileage.”

7. E-readers prosper, but pads continue to dominate what Anderson calls the “carry-along” market. Pads and tablets will come down in price and get closer to prices of e-readers. Meanwhile, Anderson says, Amazon’s Fire will move upmarket and evolve into a full-fledged tablet.

“If you look at the specs on the Fire, it’s a tablet, but it’s hobbled,” Anderson says. “So I think that this is part of the whole strategy: Come in and sell at a low price, and then later unveil a more complete tablet. Apple will stay ahead, though. A lot of people are asking me if Amazon will catch Apple, and the answer is no. The way it’s configured right now, there’s no way the Fire will catch up with the iPad.”

8. The consumption world explodes. Get ready for new devices, new content, new bundles, new connection techniques, new distribution channels, new aggregators, new tablets, new phones, new players, new self-published authors, new garage bands, new consumption models riding on social networks. There is nothing but high energy in the content consumer market. People are now ready to spend subscription money, and the publisher response will be huge. “It’s going to be a huge melee of stuff,” Anderson says. “We’ll invent more stuff to consume, and it will be very hard to figure out who the players are from week to week, and how they’re doing. They may not even know themselves.”

9. Governments and corporations focus on intellectual property as though it were their most prized asset. It is. This new global understanding leads to a reevaluation regarding giving critical IP away for nothing versus protecting it. The age of what Anderson calls “IP naïveté” is over, and the question of proper IP valuation is here.

What is IP naïveté? “When Jeff Immelt stood on the steps of the White House the day after he was named jobs czar, and handed the plans for GE’s most important jet-engine project to Hu Jintao in order to get the permission to be allowed to bid on maybe selling engines to China — that’s IP naïveté,” Anderson says. “Thinking that’s not going to come back and show up for sale in Houston from some Chinese company in about six months is IP naïveté.”

During 2012, he says, companies and countries will start valuing their intellectual property not for its replacement value, but for figures that are magnitudes larger. State-sponsored IP theft will shift from being considered a nuisance and more along the lines of an act of aggression.

10. Amazon gets it all. Between outdoing Wal-Mart online, to beating the booksellers and delivering groceries, and making new inroads in video streaming, Amazon will prove that one company can indeed have it all. Strong Kindle and Fire sales will only be icing on the cake.

Seven Questions for Seagate CEO Steve Luczo About the Effects of the Thailand Floods

Arik Hesseldahl — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 13:45:10 +0000

Name an executive of any company that makes any kind of computing hardware that contains a hard drive, and you can bet they’re worried about Thailand.

The country is now beginning the arduous job of cleaning up from the floods that killed upwards of 600 people and dealt a body blow to its industrial and manufacturing base.

One industry hit especially hard is the computer business. The world relies on factories in Thailand to turn out critical components used to build hard drives, and factories there are out of commission for now. This is not a trivial problem — the factories in question are not easy to replace, retool and restart once they dry out. Nor is the answer simply for the hard drive manufacturers to build new factories somewhere outside the flood zone.

This is the kind of supply chain disruption that the computer industry hasn’t seen in many years. I had a chance to talk with Steve Luczo, the CEO of Seagate Technology, for his view of the situation. Seagate has been relatively lucky in that its factories haven’t been directly impacted like those of Western Digital and Toshiba. But many companies that supply Seagate with necessary components have been hit, and it will be some time before they’re back on their feet.

Luczo told me that the computer industry as a whole — including companies who make PCs, servers, workstations and any other device that contains a hard drive, whether a set-top box or an enterprise storage device — can expect acute supply-chain disruptions to last well into 2012, and that it will take until the end of 2013 for the industry to return to its pre-flood operating posture. You read that right: It will be two years before the supply of hard drives is anywhere near “back to normal,” and there are simply no easy solutions for getting it fixed.

An estimate by the market research firm IHS iSuppli pegs the available supply at 125 million units, which is about 29 percent short of demand of 175 million units. By its reckoning, more than one-quarter of the world’s hard drive manufacturing capacity has been disrupted in one way or another, including 45 percent of the capacity devoted to making hard drives for personal computers. I spoke with Luczo by phone yesterday, and tossed in an extra eighth question because of the importance of the subject.

AllThingsD: Steve, at a high level, I think everyone understands the problem. There’s been a terrible flood in Thailand, and a lot of factories that make crucial parts for hard drives are out of commission. To that end, I think people expect this to be a temporary problem that works itself out in a couple of months. But you say it’s a much more complex problem than most people realize. You’re tracking this situation day to day, and probably hour by hour. So, how bad is it, really? And what’s likely to happen?

Luczo: What’s surprising to us is that even with all the data out there — we’re six weeks into it — there are a lot of fairly sophisticated companies that haven’t fully come to grips with the depth of the problem and the duration that is likely to occur. What is going to happen in the next couple of weeks is that the real shortage begins to show up right about now. There was already a lot of built inventory and a lot of finished goods moving through the system. And now all that is gone, and I think customers are starting to see shelves of parts go empty, and realizing that they’re not going to be filled for anywhere from one to two months. So the concern is heightened.

We heard Meg Whitman talk about this on HP’s earnings call Monday. She said HP stepped in and started doing some strategic buying. She says HP is going to see effects at least through the first half of next year. Apple talked about it on its earnings conference call, too. Are you hearing from them?

Tim Cook at Apple was way in front of this. I saw Tim the first week it happened, and took him through the situation, and in 15 minutes he understood the magnitude of it. Meg was on the second week of her job as CEO when I went to see her, and she got it right away. HP’s procurement VP, Tony Prophet, was also early to understand this. Companies like that reached out to us early on, because they understood that this is going to be an extended problem. They started asking for longer supply agreements. Deals that would typically last about a year, they’re now asking for two years.

How bad is it really going to be? What’s your outlier worst-case scenario, and then what do you think is a little more realistic?

If you think pre-flood, a mix [of products] that the customers need, the industry had the capacity to ship about 190 million units a quarter. Pre-flood, we expected the demand to be pretty consistent at about 180 million a quarter, with a bump in September 2012 for Windows 8. We now believe the March quarter is going to much more difficult than the December quarter, and December is going to be about 120 million or so. We think the March quarter will be about 120 million, in the best-case scenario. And that’s with customers mixing down pretty aggressively; and by that, I mean companies like Western Digital, who don’t have access to the sliders [a critical component in a drive], are shipping one- and two-headed devices so they can ship more units. So instead of shipping a drive that contains two disks and four heads, which is what the market needs right now, they’ll be shipping a one-disk, one-head or one-desk, two-head product. They’ll be maximizing the units they can sell, rather than shipping the product the customer actually needs. … So we see something like 130 million for March on the optimistic side, and then 150 million for June, 170 for September and then 190 million for December. And so by the end of 2012 you’re back to being close to industry demand. But even then, you’ve not included the impact of that missed 100 million units. And that will take another year to absorb, because it’s not like the industry is building new factories to chase that demand. We can’t over-invest to meet some bubble and then get stuck with excess capacity.

I think, intuitively, people expected companies like Seagate to just build more factories outside of the flood zone, but it’s not that simple, is it? Would this not be a moment to add capacity?

There are some in the investment community who think that’s what is going to happen, and that there will end up being a supply glut after all this is over, but it’s not the case. For us, it’s more a function of how to recover the supply chain and then work with the customer to get a good read on what their needs are for the next several quarters. If we see a multiquarter shortage that goes beyond what I described before, then we would think about maybe putting some capital in place. But we’re not going to do that to solve a temporary problem, because we end up being stuck with the excess capacity. Now if it turns out there is no recovery, and then the industry is more constrained than I first described — and that, by June, the industry is still 30-40 million units short and looks like it will be for the next six quarters — we might revisit. But then we’d want longer-term commitments to make sure we’re not overinvesting. But we’re not to that point yet.

What is this doing to prices? And what does that mean to the person who wants to buy a computer or server this year or next year?

If you look at a 10-year moving average trend, the industry has in general seen prices come down about 2 to 3 percent a quarter, and that is for a particular product. In 2009, there was a little price erosion, and that was because the storage industry recovered quickly from the recession. And there had been massive capital cutbacks, so there were big shortfalls through all of 2009 and into 2010. Then, when the Greece crisis happened, that put a big flatline on a lot of growth, and the industry had put in a lot of capital because everyone expected there would be growth. So, since spring of 2010, the price erosion has been higher than normal, which would show that supply is greater than demand. And what this flood has done is drive the supply curve down, while the demand curve has stayed constant. For OEMs [original equipment manufacturers, or the PC and server manufacturers like Apple, HP and Dell, who buy directly from Seagate], you’re seeing an average increase of about 20 percent, and in the channel [resellers who sell parts to smaller PC and server vendors], probably much higher. So all the sensational quotes you see about pricing are about those that occur in the channel, where we have no control whatsoever.

The markups in the channel are much higher? Are the channel guys taking advantage of this?

Yes, they’re higher, but I don’t think they’re taking advantage. I’ve heard stories about drives that we sell to OEMs for $60 that show up in the channel at $105. Normally the channel price is within about 10 percent of the OEM price. It’s just the law of supply and demand. They can’t get supply. The channel is getting about a third, at most, of the supply they would typically get. The OEMs are the ones with the supply agreements, so everyone in the channel is way short. In some market segments, supply is about 70 percent below what the demand is. And so those shortages are very acute. The channel is selling the few drives that are out there to whoever needs them the most and is willing to pay for them.

So what does all this mean for Seagate, specifically?

For us it’s a different story, because we’re going to be driving more volume than our competitors, because we’re not as directly affected, and we’re going to be making some technology transitions. When we do that, it lets us take cost out of our product, so we can offer more capacity for the same or fewer parts. That helps us drive down pricing. Our goal is to recapture some of the more aggressive pricing of the last eight quarters, in order to sort of get our business back in balance. Our long-term business model calls for gross margins of 22 to 26 percent. And we use our manufacturing expertise to drive down our costs and then pass that on to our customers. This quarter, end users really won’t see it, because product has been built and has been on the shelves. As the shortages just started occurring, you’re starting to see prices increase in the channel. And then at the OEM there will be shortages in some high-value areas like enterprise storage or cloud computing. You’re going to have to see price increases, because there’s such big shortages.

One thing that occurred to me when I first wrote about this a month or so ago is that it represents an opportunity for the flash memory chip companies to make some inroads against hard-drive guys like you, mainly on notebooks. Is there a threat that flash could pick up some of the demand?

Some of it, but not very much. I think to the extent that there is a high value purchaser who can afford to pay $200 for 100 gigabytes, then that market will expand from 1-2 percent to 3-4 percent. Of the 35 to 40 percent shortage that exists, could you see a little of that get absorbed by silicon? The answer is yes. But there’s a cap. There’s just not enough of a raw supply of silicon to meet all the demand. Our industry will ship 400 exabytes this year. We would have shipped 450, were it not for the floods. Of that, 180 exabytes is notebooks. Reduce that by 30 percent, and you get about 55 or 60 exabytes. If you were to take all of the capacity from Samsung’s newest state-of-the-art flash factory, and dedicated it just to notebooks, it would only put out 7 exabytes a year. Plus, there are already other markets demanding flash, like tablets and cellphones and other things. So it’s not like you can steal from those other markets. You’re not going to take a $32 product and replace it with a $350 product. Can you do it at the edges of the market? Sure. But the threat is capped by the amount of silicon available and the price point for flash storage, which is still an order of magnitude higher.

HP Beats the Street, but Guidance for 2012 Is Weak

Arik Hesseldahl — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 21:23:39 +0000

Hewlett-Packard managed to maintain its long-running streak of beating the expectations of Wall Street analysts — now 26 of the last 27 quarters — with an earnings report that bested the consensus by four cents.

Earnings per share were $1.17, versus the consensus of $1.13, on sales of $32.3 billion, also slightly ahead of the consensus.

However, the guidance looks weak. HP said it sees fiscal year 2012 earnings coming in at at least $4, well below the consensus of $4.56, and not really even in the “just right” territory that I wrote about this morning.

“We need to get back to the business fundamentals in fiscal 2012, including making prudent investments in the business and driving more consistent execution,” CEO Meg Whitman said in a statement.

HP shares took a beating today, but so did the rest of the market. HP closed down more than 4 percent at $28.84. The shares are down more than 36 percent since the start of the year.

Here’s the full earnings news release:

PALO ALTO, CA–(Marketwire -11/21/11)- HP

Fiscal 2011 non-GAAP net revenue of $127.4 billion, non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $4.88 and free cash flow of $9.1 billion grew 1%, 7% and 8%, respectively, over the prior year

Fiscal 2011 GAAP net revenue of $127.2 billion, GAAP diluted earnings per share of $3.32 and cash flow from operations of $12.6 billion

Fourth quarter non-GAAP net revenue of $32.3 billion, non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.17 and free cash flow of $1.2 billion were down 3%, 12% and 43%, respectively, from the prior-year quarter

Fourth quarter GAAP net revenue of $32.1 billion, GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.12 and cash flow from operations of $2.4 billion

HP today announced financial results for its fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended Oct. 31, 2011.

“HP has a great opportunity to build on our strong hardware, software, and services franchises with leading market positions, customer relationships, and intellectual property,” said Meg Whitman, HP president and chief executive officer. “We need to get back to the business fundamentals in fiscal 2012, including making prudent investments in the business and driving more consistent execution.”

“While FY11 proved to be a challenging year, we grew non-GAAP EPS 7% and generated $12.6 billion in cash flow from operations,” said Cathie Lesjak, HP executive vice president and chief financial officer. “We’re remaining cautious heading into FY12 but are focused on delivering our earnings outlook and driving shareholder value.”

Earnings highlights

—————— —————————— ————————–
Q4 FY11 Q4 FY10 Y/Y FY11 FY10 Y/Y
—————— —————————— ————————–
GAAP net revenue
($B) $ 32.1 $ 33.3 (3%) $127.2 $126.0 1%
—————— —————————— ————————–
GAAP operating
margin 2.5% 9.9% (7.4 pts) 7.6% 9.1% (1.5 pts)
—————— —————————— ————————–
GAAP net earnings
($B) $ 0.2 $ 2.5 (91%) $ 7.1 $ 8.8 (19%)
—————— —————————— ————————–
GAAP diluted EPS $ 0.12 $ 1.10 (89%) $ 3.32 $ 3.69 (10%)
—————— —————————— ————————–
Non-GAAP net
revenue ($) $ 32.3 $ 33.3 (3%) $127.4 $126.0 1%
—————— —————————— ————————–
Non-GAAP operating
margin 9.7% 12.0% (2.3 pts) 10.8% 11.4% (0.6 pts)
—————— —————————— ————————–
Non-GAAP net
earnings ($B) $ 2.4 $ 3.1 (23%) $ 10.4 $ 10.9 (4%)
—————— —————————— ————————–
Non-GAAP diluted
EPS $ 1.17 $ 1.33 (12%) $ 4.88 $ 4.58 7%
—————— —————————— ————————–

Information about HP’s use of non-GAAP financial information is provided under “Use of non-GAAP financial information” below. Unless otherwise specified, all revenue amounts below are calculated on a GAAP basis.

Full year fiscal 2011
GAAP net revenue for the full fiscal year 2011 was $127.2 billion, up 1% compared with the prior year or down 1% when adjusted for the effects of currency. GAAP operating profit was $9.7 billion, and GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $3.32, down 10% from the prior year.

Non-GAAP net revenue for the full fiscal year 2011 was $127.4 billion, up 1% compared with the prior year or down 1% when adjusted for the effects of currency. Non-GAAP operating profit was $13.8 billion, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $4.88, up 7% from the prior year.

Fiscal 2011 non-GAAP net revenue includes an additional $0.2 billion of revenue resulting from the exclusion of contra revenue associated with sales incentive programs implemented in the fourth quarter in connection with the wind down of HP’s webOS device business, net of fourth quarter webOS device revenue. Non-GAAP earnings and operating profit information excludes after-tax costs of $3.3 billion, or $1.56 per diluted share, related to the wind down of HP’s webOS device business, impairment of goodwill and purchased intangible assets, amortization of purchased intangible assets, restructuring charges and acquisition-related charges.

Fourth fiscal quarter 2011
For the quarter, GAAP net revenue of $32.1 billion was down 3% from the prior-year period. Non-GAAP net revenue of $32.3 billion was down 3% from the prior-year period as reported and down 6% when adjusted for the effects of currency.

GAAP diluted EPS was $0.12, down 89% from the prior-year period. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.17, down 12% from the prior-year period.

Fourth quarter non-GAAP net revenue includes an additional $0.2 billion of revenue resulting from the exclusion of contra revenue associated with sales incentive programs implemented in connection with the wind down of HP’s webOS device business, net of webOS device revenue for the period. Fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings information excludes after-tax costs of $2.1 billion, or $1.05 per diluted share, related to the wind down of HP’s webOS device business, impairment of goodwill and purchased intangible assets, amortization of purchased intangible assets, restructuring charges and acquisition-related charges.

Fourth fiscal quarter 2011 trends and regional performance
In the Americas, fourth quarter GAAP net revenue was $14.5 billion, down 4% year over year and down 5% when adjusted for the effects of currency. Non-GAAP net revenue in the Americas was $14.6 billion, down 3% year over year and down 4% when adjusted for the effects of currency.

Europe, the Middle East and Africa GAAP revenue of $11.7 billion was down 6% year over year and down 10% when adjusted for the effects of currency. GAAP revenue in Asia Pacific was $6.0 billion, representing a 3% increase year over year, and down 4% when adjusted for the effects of currency.

GAAP revenue from outside of the United States in the fourth quarter accounted for 65% of total HP revenue. BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) generated revenue of $3.8 billion, up 9% over the year-ago period, for 12% of total HP revenue.

Revenue in HP’s commercial businesses declined 2% year over year. Revenue in HP’s consumer businesses, within PSG and IPG, was collectively down 9% year over year.

Fourth fiscal quarter 2011 business group results

Services revenue of $9.3 billion grew 2% year over year with a 12.8% operating margin. Technology Services and Application Services revenue grew 3% and 2%, respectively, while IT Outsourcing revenue grew 1% and Business Process Outsourcing revenue declined 2%.

Enterprise Servers, Storage and Networking (ESSN) revenue declined 4% year over year with a 13.0% operating margin. Networking revenue was up 5%, Industry Standard Servers revenue was down 4%, Business Critical Systems revenue was down 23%, and Storage revenue was up 4%.

HP Software revenue grew 28% year over year with a 27.7% operating margin. HP Software revenue was driven by revenue growth in licenses and services of 33% and 36%, respectively.

Personal Systems Group (PSG) revenue declined 2% year over year with a 5.7% operating margin. Commercial client revenue grew 5%, and Consumer client revenue declined 9%. Total units were up 2% with 5% growth in desktop units and 1% growth in notebook units.

Imaging and Printing Group (IPG) revenue declined 10% year over year with a 12.8% operating margin. Commercial revenue was up 4% year over year with commercial printer hardware units up 5%. Consumer printer hardware revenue was down 8% year over year with an 8% decline in units.

Financial Services revenue grew 18% year over year driven by double-digit growth in both lease volume and portfolio assets. The business delivered a 10.3% operating margin.

Asset management
HP generated $2.4 billion in cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter. Inventory ended the quarter at $7.5 billion, with days of inventory up 4 days year over year to 27 days. Accounts receivable of $18.2 billion was up 1 day year over year to 51 days. Accounts payable ended the quarter at $14.8 billion, flat from the prior-year period at 52 days. HP’s dividend payment of $0.12 per share in the fourth quarter resulted in cash usage of $239 million. HP also utilized $500 million of cash during the quarter to repurchase approximately 17 million shares of common stock in the open market. HP exited the quarter with $8.1 billion in gross cash.

Outlook
For the first quarter of fiscal 2012, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted EPS in the range of $0.83 to $0.86, and GAAP diluted EPS in the range of $0.61 to $0.64.

First quarter fiscal 2012 non-GAAP diluted EPS estimates exclude after-tax costs of approximately $0.22 per share, related primarily to the amortization and impairment of purchased intangibles, restructuring charges and acquisition-related charges.

HP expects full year fiscal 2012 non-GAAP diluted EPS of at least $4.00 and GAAP diluted EPS of approximately $3.20.

Full year fiscal 2012 non-GAAP diluted EPS estimates exclude after-tax costs of approximately $0.80 per share, related primarily to the amortization and impairment of purchased intangibles, restructuring charges and acquisition-related charges.

In order to more effectively manage HP as one company and align its guidance policy with its long-term objective of delivering profitable growth, HP will only be providing a quarterly and annual earnings per share outlook. The company believes that earnings per share is a better indicator of successful execution across its various business levers. HP remains committed to high levels of disclosure and transparency, including general commentary on its expectations relating to future revenue and business segment performance, and will continue to provide detailed segment-level financial performance data for completed fiscal periods.

More information on HP’s quarterly earnings, including additional financial analysis and an earnings overview presentation, is available on HP’s Investor Relations website at www.hp.com/investor/home.

HP’s Q4 FY11 earnings conference call is accessible via an audio webcast at www.hp.com/investor/2011q4webcast.

About HP
HP creates new possibilities for technology to have a meaningful impact on people, businesses, governments and society. The world’s largest technology company, HP brings together a portfolio that spans printing, personal computing, software, services and IT infrastructure to solve customer problems. More information about HP is available at http://www.hp.com.

HP's Look Ahead to 2012 Must Be Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold, but "Just Right"

Arik Hesseldahl — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 13:55:05 +0000

Hewlett-Packard will today report results for its fourth fiscal quarter and its 2011 fiscal year. It will be the company’s first earnings announcement under its new CEO Meg Whitman, who stepped in as CEO two months ago.

It will also be the first earnings release since the infamous fiasco of Aug. 18, when HP shocked investors with a truckload of news: The shutdown of the webOS hardware business, the now-concluded review of strategic options for the PC business, the acquisition of the British software firm Autonomy and a lowering of its revenue outlook.

The consensus of Wall Street analysts calls for HP to report sales of $32.1 billion and per-share profits of $1.16. At that level, sales growth would amount to about 3 to 4 percent on a sequential basis. Which, writes analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein Research in a note to clients on Friday, is substantially slower than the 8 to 14 percent HP usually grows sales in its fourth quarter.

HP consistently beats the consensus number — 25 of the last 26 quarters, by Sacconaghi’s count — so there’s a pretty good chance the company will do it again, despite an aggressive pricing environment for PCs, economic weaknesses in Europe and headwinds from the effect of currencies. When HP issued profit guidance in August for this quarter — the range was $1.12 to $1.16 a share — it implied that operating margins would be down by about 0.3 percent to up by 0.1 percent. This would be, Sacconaghi writes, the worst quarter-on-quarter change in operating margin since HP acquired Compaq in 2002.

Yet the results for the quarter are almost of secondary concern. All eyes will be on guidance that HP gives for 2012. It must be realistic, but not too low; achievable, so not too high. Guidance that Goldilocks could love — just right. HP has been lowering its guidance all year, but that was under prior CEO Léo Apotheker. The right number for EPS guidance in 2012, Sacconaghi says, is at least $4.25 a share, though he’s estimating HP will finish 2012 at $4.80, which is a reduction from his previous estimate of $5.15.

Also, it should set some clear priorities for capital allocation, Sacconaghi writes. HP took a lot of heat for paying $11.7 billion for Autonomy. Whitman has yet to set the table strategically for HP: Does it need more “transformation”? Or is it a mature company with slow predictable growth targets that routinely gives cash back to shareholders in much the same way IBM does? In choosing the latter, Sacconaghi says, HP could grow sales by at least 2.5 percent a year and per-share profits by 9 to 10 percent a year for the next three to five years.

HP can expect to produce free cash flow next year, in the range of $8 billion to $10 billion. If it were to buy back $4 billion worth of stock, it would reduce the share count by about 7 percent, and thus goose its EPS accordingly. One important signal on this front is the addition of activist investor Ralph Whitworth to HP’s board. Whitworth is likely to advocate the return of cash to shareholders and lean against big acquisitions.

Finally, there are lots of challenges in HP’s individual business units, none of them insurmountable. The printer unit is still recovering from the effects of the earthquake in Japan. Certain high-demand models are running short, yet there’s a lot of lower-demand models in inventory. Sacconaghi expects sales in the unit to drop 6 percent. In services, HP has had some problems delivering profit growth. Expect some explanation around that in the commentary today. In the PC business, expect some explanation of the effects HP is seeing from the flooding in Thailand which is causing a worldwide shortage of hard drives. In the Business Critical Server business, which is where HP sells its high-margin Itanium-based servers, the impact from the ongoing brawl with Oracle is making it difficult to close deals, Sacconaghi writes.

Overall, he insists that HP — despite its troubles over the last year — remains an attractive investment for patient investors. It still leads the market segments it participates in, except services, and still has fair room for growth. Sacconaghi rates HP as “outperform,” and expects it to hit a price of $37.

Hewlett-Packard Dons Its Ultrabook Suit

Arik Hesseldahl — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 17:11:23 +0000

It’s been about three weeks since Hewlett-Packard announced its decision to keep its PC division, formally known as the Personal Systems Group, or PSG. Today marked the first serious batch of new PC introductions from HP since that decision.

The one getting all the attention is an offering in the Ultrabook category that’s priced at $900. It’s called the HP Folio¹³, and aside from its price, its headline feature is that it delivers a full nine hours of battery life.

The Ultrabook is a concept primarily being pushed by Intel, so much so that Intel even owns the trademark rights to the name. Inside the Folio¹³ are the latest Intel Core processors. It represents the hopes of a PC industry that has seen anemic sales with little sign of a bounceback, though that depends on whom you ask.

Major challenges have been the continued popularity among consumers of Apple’s iPad, and to a lesser extent other tablets, and the impressive sales of Apple’s MacBook Air, which now accounts for nearly a third of Apple’s notebook sales. It may not be an Ultrabook technically, but conceptually the similarities are substantial: Thin, light, sporting solid-state drives and speedy boot-up times.

And while the MacBook Air is a big winner for Apple, there’s as yet little evidence that there’s much demand for a similar product running Windows. Last month, it emerged that Acer and Asus expect to sell only 100,000 each by the of 2011, which would amount to between one third and one half of what they originally hoped.

Yes, it’s early days for Ultrabooks — machines that support Intel’s full design vision won’t be on the market for another several months. And the industry is just now starting to bang the drum seriously for the Ultrabook. Asus Chairman Jonney Shih talked about the category in an interview with Walt Mossberg at AsiaD last month.

In its press releases, HP expressed the hopes of an entire industry when it quoted IDC analyst Crawford Del Prete saying he expects PC makers — including HP — to sell 95 million Ultrabooks by 2015. At their current levels, there’s nowhere to go but up.

Ballmer Didn't Necessarily Say Full Windows Is Coming to Phones, but Might It?

Ina Fried — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 20:11:03 +0000

Much is being made over Steve Ballmer’s statements Tuesday at Microsoft’s annual shareholder meeting, which some have taken to indicate that Microsoft plans to bring Windows 8 to the phone.

While answering a question about whether or not we are in a post-PC era, Microsoft’s CEO insisted that Windows would continue to be at the center of things.

“We are in the Windows era,” Ballmer said. “We were, we are and we always will be. That’s kind of what we get paid to do.”

Here’s where things get a little tricky. During the next part, Ballmer talked about several initiatives that the company has going on around Windows and makes some comments that at least one reporter took to mean that Windows 8 is coming to the phone.

Here’s what Ballmer said (I’ve used ellipses to mark where there are brief pauses):

“We’ve got broad Windows initiatives … driving Windows down to the phone … with Windows 8 … you’ll see incredible new form factors powered by Windows from tablets, small, large, pens, smaller, bigger, room-size displays. We are in an era in which the range of smart devices is continuing to expand. That’s a fantastic thing for Microsoft. That is a real opportunity.”

So the question is, in which phrase was he referring to Windows 8? From listening to the audio — I wasn’t in the room — it’s tough to tell whether the Windows 8 piece is part of the sentence about the phone or part of the next one. (I recommend listening to it for yourself. It’s at about 47:30 into the webcast, which is available from Microsoft’s investor relations site.)

But here’s what we do know. Microsoft is moving its phone and desktop operating systems closer together.

Things are furthest along in the look and feel department, where Windows 8’s new look bears a striking resemblance to Windows Phone 7. The Metro look that pervades the phone operating system is at the heart of the new start menu for Windows 8 that Microsoft first showed off at our D9 conference in June.

What has yet to happen is the opportunity for developers to write code once and have it run seamlessly on phones, PCs and tablets. Likewise, consumers can’t buy software that runs on all three devices.

Microsoft has made moves to separate the tools developers use to write their programs from the underlying hardware, be it PCs or phones. With Windows Phone, developers are writing their applications in either Silverlight or XNA — the tools first used to develop for the Xbox. With new-style Windows 8 apps, developers are writing in various Web languages, including HTML5 and Javascript. Microsoft is using this approach, among other things, to expand Windows to run on both traditional PC processors and those using the ARM core found in smartphones and tablets.

That leaves the door open for Redmond to make any number of changes, including moving the phone and PC to a more common architecture, without necessarily forcing developers to do another rewrite.

HTML5: A Look Behind the Technology Changing the Web

Don Clark — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 08:00:40 +0000

A year and a half after Steve Jobs endorsed it in an unusual essay, a set of programming techniques called HTML5 is rapidly winning over the Web.

The technology allows Internet browsers to display jazzed-up images and effects that react to users’ actions, delivering game-like interactivity without installing additional software. Developers can use HTML5 to get their creations on a variety of smartphones, tablets and PCs without tailoring apps for specific hardware or the online stores that have become gatekeepers to mobile commerce.

That promise—and the lure of Apple Inc. devices in particular—is sweeping aside alternative technologies. In the latest development, Adobe Systems Inc. said Wednesday it will pull back on pushing the rival Flash format opposed by Mr. Jobs for mobile devices.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

China's Lenovo Proves There's Life in the PC Market Yet

Arik Hesseldahl — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 19:50:55 +0000

There’s still life in the PC industry. For evidence, look no further than the results of Lenovo, the China-based manufacturer that bought out IBM’s PC business a few years ago.

As The Wall Street Journal reported today, Lenovo’s profits rose by 88 percent, and it eclipsed Dell as the world’s No. 2 manufacturer, behind Hewlett-Packard. The company has been growing in part through acquisitions — it recently paid 465 million euros (about $640 million) for the German PC outfit Medion — but also by playing well in markets where people are still buying their first PCs, says Peter Hortensius, the president of Lenovo’s Global Product Group.

Lenovo’s results did good things for shares of rival HP, which last week announced that it will keep the PC unit it had previously considered spinning off. Its shares rose 1.8 percent to $26.06. Shares in Dell rose more than 1 percent to $15.29, while Intel fell 17 cents, or less than 1 percent.

Hortensius told me that much of Lenovo’s strength comes from being the top vendor in the world’s leading market, China, and also in its No. 3 market, Japan. In the world’s No. 2 market, the U.S. — not so much. Lenovo is fifth there, but that’s an improvement from prior periods, he says.

Another strength he noted is in emerging markets like Brazil, where lots of people are still buying their first device and just getting their first Internet connection and not ready to think about buying tablets or smartphones just yet. But Lenovo’s a big player there, too, and sells Android based smartphones and tablets in China. It also plans to sell tablets running Windows 8 when it’s released. And as part of a four-screen strategy, he said, the company will have more to say on the subject of smart TVs soon.

What it doesn’t have, at least in the U.S. yet, is a strong brand presence. And so it has crafted a marketing campaign around “people who do.” So what do you do when you need to get attention for a less-well known PC brand? You drop a laptop out of a plane, naturally. Of course there was a technical reason for doing it: Proving that the machine could boot up in time to deploy a parachute and land safely, though I have to wonder just how soft that landing was in reality. I embedded the spot below just because it looks cool.

Can HP Still Deliver for Investors?

Arik Hesseldahl — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 12:59:21 +0000

With so many changes rocking the top managerial ranks at Hewlett-Packard during the last year, investors have punished the stock. About 18 months ago, HP shares were trading for more than $53. Today they’re trading at roughly half that.

Now that new HP CEO Meg Whitman has decided to keep the PC business rather than spin it out as her predecessor Léo Apotheker had proposed, HP appears to be heading back, however slowly, toward the kind of stability for which it had long been known.

But can it still perform? Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi took the opportunity to examine the company’s business units and finds that, yes, the prospects for growth aren’t unreasonable. The current portfolio of HP’s business, he estimates, is likely to grow its sales organically by a combined 2.5 percent on an annual basis going forward. Add to that additional growth from the planned shifts toward higher-margin IT service, networking and software businesses, and the picture gets brighter, Sacconaghi writes in a note to clients issued yesterday. HP, he argues, should be able to grow its per-share earnings by 9 to 10 percent annually over the next three to five years.

Part of his assumption is that HP uses about $4 billion of its $8-$10 billion in annual free cash flow for share buybacks, which will help goose earnings on a per-share basis by reducing the number of outstanding shares; plus another $3 billion annually for acquisitions, buying companies at reasonable multiples of about five times revenue.

So how does each sector of HP’s business look?

PCs: Sacconaghi reckons that the global market for PCs will grow about 6 percent a year on a unit basis, down from historical averages of about 10 percent, and that it will grow on a revenue basis by about 2 percent a year through 2015. As the biggest supplier of PCs in the world, HP will, at the very least, hold its market share. While PCs are HP’s largest business, accounting for $40 billion in its last fiscal year and about one-third of its overall sales, the unit generates only 13 percent of operating profits. And, yes, while tablets are a threat, Sacconaghi sees no reason that PCs and tablets can’t grow together. The increasing need for an Internet connection everywhere and the increasing amount that consumers are willing to spend on technology, coupled with price declines over time, mean that consumers will be willing to spend more on notebooks and tablets.

Printers: As with PCs, HP is the market leader in printers, and as that market grows its revenue by about 3 percent a year, HP will probably hold on to its share of the market. Tablets may have a long-term impact on printing behavior, but Sacconaghi argues that consumer behavior tends to change slowly. A decade ago, he says, investors worried that email and the paperless office would kill printing. “Despite these ostensible headwinds, HP and Lexmark collectively grew their supplies revenues by 7 percent per year between 2000 and 2010, driving low to mid single digit growth for the printer industry.” HP’s printer division accounted for $25.8 billion in revenues in the last fiscal year, or about 20 percent overall, and because of its 17 percent operating margin, delivered 29 percent of the company’s profits. It’s a classic razor blade business, as HP loses between 20 and 25 percent on the printing hardware, only to make it up on supplies that command a 60 percent margin. The presence of tablets could actually boost printing, and thus increase the sale of those supplies down the road. Overall, the printer business should continue to grow at about 3 percent a year, Sacconaghi says.

Enterprise, servers, storage and networking: Sacconaghi expects HP to grow revenues in the ESSN unit by about 2 percent a year, slightly below the industry growth rate of 3 percent. He bases this on the expectation that HP can grow its networking business, hold its market share in the Intel-based servers, and lose share in its enterprise storage business to players like EMC and NetApp, and also lose share in the Unix storage business because of Oracle’s decision not to support the Itanium chip.

Services: This unit should grow by about 2 percent annually, slower than the market, which is growing at 4 percent. “We believe that outsourcing is a maturing business, and that EDS, which HP purchased in 2008, is and was an underperforming asset,” Sacconaghi writes. “As a result, we forecast HP’s outsourcing revenues to remain flat.” Expect it to grow in line with the enterprise hardware business, and along with the consulting business.

Software: The market research firm IDC expects the end markets for HP’s software to grow by 7 percent a year. If you assume that HP makes more software acquisitions, which Sacconaghi does, then you can reasonably predict its software revenue will grow by 10 percent a year.

So what’s the risk to all this? Leadership. “Ultimately, our projections for HP are predicated on the company choosing a disciplined financial approach to running the company that includes modest revenue growth, small and leverageable acquisitions, a strong operations focus, and high returns of capital to shareholders,” Sacconaghi writes. The last two CEOs who tried to “transform” HP — Carly Fiorina and Léo Apotheker — failed.

HP’s isn’t “broken,” but in fact offers a favorable risk for patient investors, Sacconaghi says. He rates HP shares as an “outperform,” with a price target of $37.

Phil McKinney, CTO of HP's PC Unit, Heads for the Exit

Arik Hesseldahl — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 23:05:11 +0000

With Hewlett-Packard finally having decided to keep its Personal Systems Group rather than spin it off, that group’s chief technology officer, Phil McKinney, has announced — in a statement on his personal blog — that he’s leaving. His last day at HP will be Dec. 31. His statement is below:

Earlier today, I announced that I will be retiring from HP.

This is not the traditional retirement. I’m not planning on spending my days playing golf or sitting around the house driving my wife crazy. I have far too much passion, energy and ideas to sit on the sidelines.

My definition of retirement is the freedom to write, speak, mentor, advise and teach without the restrictions of the traditional employee/corporate structure.

My passion is to help innovators get better at innovating and I’ve spent the better part of the last dozen years fulfilling that mission. My time at HP started out as an advisor on innovation that turned into a request to join for a year or so to “help grow the innovation culture at HP”. That was 9 years ago. I can honestly say they I’ve done everything that is within my power to fulfill that objective.

In helping grow the innovation culture at HP, I had the privilege to mentor, be a part of and lead teams that delivered some amazing innovations including: Blackbird, Firebird, Envy 133, Gabble, Twynergy, Pluribus, Vantage TouchWall, DreamScreen and many more.

These innovations were the catalyst for HP making it on to the Most Creative Company lists for the first time. The innovation teams at HP deserve the recognition.

So what am I going to do after HP?

Repeat what I did at HP by helping others get better at innovation.

In the near term, I will be focusing on the launch of my first book, Beyond The Obvious. At the same time, I will be expanding my efforts on the blog, podcast, speaking and teaching Killer Innovation Workshops.

I’m also excited that once again, I will be able to take on board seats, advisory roles and mentoring opportunities since I will no longer have to worry about conflict of interest and other corporate restrictions.

HP has asked me to stay on through a transition period and to ensure that a number of customer obligations are completed. I anticipate that my last official day at HP will be 12/31.

HP's TouchPad: The Tablet That Refused to Die

Arik Hesseldahl — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 12:45:16 +0000

Hewlett-Packard’s TouchPad is back for sale at Best Buy.

Unceremoniously killed under HP’s prior CEO on Aug. 18 after disappointing sales, the device quickly found a market after retailers and HP itself slashed the prices on remaining stock.

This time, according to a Best Buy press release, a 32 gigabyte TouchPad is going for $149, with the purchase of an HP- or Compaq-branded notebook or desktop PC. Sold separately, the price jumps to $599.99.

HP, for its part, has sold out of its internal stock of the device, according to a statement on the company’s Web site. TouchPads can, however, still be found on Amazon and on eBay.

By bundling the TouchPad with PCs at its biggest retail partner, HP is giving itself an arguable edge against Acer, Dell and Toshiba in what is sure to be a cutthroat holiday season for PC and tablet sales. After about a month on the market, and before the product wound up on the chopping block, Best Buy sold less than 10 percent of the 270,000 TouchPads it had in inventory.

It’s hard to know how long the deal can last. Sources familiar with HP’s build plans say the initial TouchPad order was for between 1.8 million and two million units, though a third source disputed that number without elaborating. Regardless of the number ordered, sources familiar with the deal say that HP’s decision to kill the product had no immediate effect on the build plans, as components had already been purchased and manufacturing was under way. A source familiar with the matter says the manufacturer is Taiwan-based Inventec, not Compal, as has been previously reported. HP was contractually obligated to take delivery on the remaining units in the pipeline.

That means the TouchPad is now officially a loss leader. As an IHS iSuppli teardown analysis in August showed, HP’s cost to build a 32GB TouchPad is $328.65. At $149.99, HP takes a paper loss of more than $178 per unit.

HP isn’t exactly crying over the lost money. Remember that as part of the hot mess of news it announced on Aug. 18, the company included plans for a $1 billion charge to account for costs related to shutting down the TouchPad and webOS hardware business.

Whatever happens, this is probably the last hurrah for the TouchPad — for real this time. That is, unless no one takes advantage of the offer to buy one along with a PC. Any stock left over after the holiday season rush will probably wind up in Best Buy’s equivalent of the bargain bin.

Hewlett-Packard: One Messy Piece of Business Cleared Up, Many to Go

Arik Hesseldahl — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 20:16:49 +0000

“Glad that long national nightmare is over.”

That was the comment — paraphrased from Gerald Ford’s inaugural address upon the close of the Nixon presidency — that I received in an email from an industry source on Friday. The quote was sent in reference to the now-concluded business surrounding Hewlett-Packard’s exploration of “strategic options” concerning its Personal Systems Group.

Now that HP CEO Meg Whitman has concluded that the company is stronger with PCs than without them, there remains a fair bit of unfinished business from the dog’s breakfast of changes announced on Aug. 18.

First and foremost are the questions about the future — or lack thereof — of HP’s webOS business.

The only thing we know for certain is that HP is out of the business of hardware that runs the operating system it picked up in last year’s $1.2 billion acquisition of Palm. HP killed that business after sales of its TouchPad tablet device proved initially disappointing, only to see reduced prices spark a surge in interest from buyers.

During a conference call with analysts earlier this week, Whitman conceded that HP “needs to be in the tablet business” — and that it intends to participate in that business using Microsoft’s tablet-friendly Windows 8 operating system. She also said a long-term decision regarding the webOS software business is forthcoming within the “next couple of months.” HP has already carried out a round of layoffs in that division.

Another not very encouraging sign amid the ongoing uncertainty is the departure of Richard Kerris — who had headed up HP’s webOS developer outreach efforts — for a similar Windows-related job at Nokia.

And related to that is the fate of Jon Rubinstein, the former CEO of Palm and former head of Apple’s iPod business unit. Once the public face of webOS — and of Palm before that, as its final CEO — he has not been visible at all during any of HP’s recent upheavals.

That said, rumors have been almost nonexistent about Rubinstein seeking or being recruited for a job elsewhere. It’s not like he needs the work, but his apparent future is about as cloudy as that of the webOS itself. Currently he’s a product guy without a product; his role at HP is unclear. In July, he was bumped from his title as general manager of the webOS unit and moved into an iffy “product innovation role” within PSG.

One thing is true: Rubinstein has a close relationship with Todd Bradley, who leads the PSG unit.

At least Bradley’s fate is cleared up: The high-profile exec has been the subject of numerous reports and rumors, including a March report in The Wall Street Journal that said he had been recruited by chipmaker Intel. Since then, Bradley has been regularly asked about his future plans.

It was an open secret in Silicon Valley that Bradley feuded with HP’s prior CEO, Léo Apotheker, and was not consulted about the PSG spinoff plan before it was floated to the public.

Still, he stood the best chance of being named the CEO of whatever new company emerged from the plan. Yet Bradley’s voice was heard solidly behind Whitman’s yesterday, both on the conference call and in an interview with AllThingsD.

Bradley made it clear he intends to stay with HP for the forseeable future. His tone, both in public comments and in that joint interview with Whitman, seemed sincere — meaning he has likely arrived at some understanding with Whitman that will keep him at HP.

And Whitman can’t afford to lose a key member of an important business unit just now. (Although, as he has been passed over three times for HP’s top job in recent years, any lingering hopes that Bradley may have harbored of ever being CEO are probably now dashed.)

Outside of the consumer and PC space is the matter of Autonomy, the British software firm for which HP paid $11.7 billion, in a deal also announced on Aug. 18. There’s no question that the purchase price was high, representing a 64 percent premium above Autonomy’s share price, for starters. Many investors have frowned upon the deal, and some have even gone so far as to sue HP over how it was handled, mainly because HP shares cratered after it was announced. What is still to be fully explained is how HP extracts enough value from Autonomy — and if enough value can be extracted to justify the price paid.

Finally, there’s the matter of HP’s results in the coming quarter. With the company in a quiet period ahead of its Nov. 21 earnings announcement, there are few hints as to whether or not HP will meet its already reduced expectations for the quarter. Whitman insisted that no major announcements are expected before then, suggesting that there won’t be any negative pre-announcements.

But much will depend on the tone of the forward guidance HP gives as it looks to 2012. With its shares down nearly 33 percent so far this year — they closed Friday at $27.94, up 85 cents, or more than 3 percent, following Thursday’s decision — it can’t afford to miss another quarter. Once a tech company known for the stability it has given investors, HP has had nothing but unpleasant surprises for the last 14 months.

Now that one piece of the evolving story of the new HP is settled, many more are still in motion.

I talked about this and many of HP’s issues on The Wall Street Journal’s online “Markets Hub” show on Friday, and have embedded it here:

[ See post to watch video ]