Starting today, Decide.com will choose 10 deals that it is so sure about that if its prediction proves wrong and the price drops within two weeks of purchase, Decide will automatically alert the buyer and pay them the amount of the price drop (up to $200).

The new feature is being launched today by the Seattle company, which is the brainchild of the folks behind Farecast.com. Like Decide.com, Farecast predicted whether it was the right time to buy an airline ticket. Farecast is now part of Microsoft’s Bing. Unfortunately, Farecast never had a guarantee.

In a statement, Mike Fridgen, president and CEO of Decide, said: “We want to show our users this isn’t just lip service — we’re actually willing to put our money behind our data-driven recommendations.”

The guarantee will be applied to 10 designated deals on the site every day, from consumer electronics to refrigerators and videogames.

Today’s deals include an HP 14-inch laptop for $500, representing a 23 percent savings; a 55-inch HDTV from LG that costs $1,199, representing a savings of 37 percent; and the Haier 1.7 cubic-foot refrigerator for $80, representing a 20 percent savings.

If any of those products become cheaper over the next two weeks, a buyer needs only to submit a photo of themselves with the product, and then Decide will send the money via PayPal or check.

While it sounds generous, the program probably pencils out financially, too. Of course, Decide hopes that its predictions are correct, but if they aren’t, the company has some buffer, because it earns a commission on the sales it generates.

To be clear, the company is not partnering with the retailer on these deals, but it does earn a referal fee or commission from the retailer if it generates a sale. Some of those rates are hefty; Amazon, for example, pays 4 percent on electronics product referrals.

Since launching last June, Decide says it has served up more than seven million recommendations, which have resulted in an average savings of $87 per product.

Ahead of the dinner, Anderson stopped by my office to let me have a peek at his 10 predictions, and we talked them over a bit. All 10 are below, along with some comments from Anderson that emerged from our conversation.

Before diving into the predictions, Anderson tells me there is a grand theme that unifies them all: “Integrating everything.”

What does that mean? “It means a whole lot of stuff that needs to be integrated. We don’t need anything new at all. There’s so much work that needs to be done with the existing tool sets. Steve Jobs didn’t really invent anything at all. But he was great at integrating things into a product. There’s a lot more of that work to do. We have to do it in the phone world and the TV world and the health care world. We have lots of devices and lots of chips and lots of operating systems and lots of content. The bigger question is, how do human beings use it all efficiently?”

As an example, he cites the collaboration between Nuance, the speech software company, and IBM, bringing the Watson computer of “Jeopardy” fame into the area of health care. “For the first time, the idea of evidence-based medicine won’t just be in a magazine article,” Anderson says. “A doctor will be able to pick up his phone and describe four symptoms, and find out what the likely diagnosis is, what the indications are. It’s fantastic.”

So here are those 10 predictions, with additional comments from Anderson:

1. TV becomes the new center of gravity in the tech universe. All the other devices find their niches in the TV galaxy. Microsoft’s attempt to integrate Kinect into TV is a strong if qualified success. Smart phone-TV integration software becomes a new category. Pad-TV integration becomes common.

“Apple will hustle to launch the next version of Apple TV, and it will be a roaring success and be seen as Tim Cook’s first great product success. But what it really will be is Steve’s last product.”

2. 2012 will see tectonic shifts in phone markets. “Nokia will fail to come back, which is pretty clear to everyone except the people in Finland.” Samsung, Anderson says, will retain its spot as the new global leader in mobile phones by volume, and will keep this crown despite the debut of Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7.

Meanwhile, Anderson says, Google will lose control over the Android operating system, mainly because unlicensed versions of Android will multiply in type and in installed base, especially in Asian countries. “It’s already a balkanized environment. Now Google loses control of the technology entirely. China is already running an unlicensed version of Android, and I think there will be more of that.”

Finally, the smartphone will finally emerge as the dominant category of wireless phone. “Why would you have anything else? And why would sellers of content and services want you to?” he says. “It doesn’t matter if you’re in a rich country or a poor country. This stuff is cheap.”

3. Clouds are for consumers, and for start-ups. Even as a large number of big companies move pilot projects onto external clouds, it will become clear that the real trend is for enterprise to stay away from clouds in all key areas, for reasons of both security and reliability.

“The cloud guys hate this because they want to sell to enterprises,” Anderson says. “But the security issues are becoming really intense. If you’re a CIO, it’s a terrible environment, and you’re a target, for sure, especially if you’re a company with a lot of intellectual property. I’m not implying that things like SAAS (software as a service) aren’t a big trend. But no one is going to put their valuable IP on the cloud.”

4. Security splits the tech world in two, finally getting attention from CEOs. Companies with real IP start to realize they have to “go big or go home” with their security response, and their spending on protecting their “crown jewels” rises dramatically.

5. Siri stuns the world. Siri, on Apple’s iPhone 4S, has sounded the arrival of Internet personal assistants, and the world will spend this year marveling at what Siri and its rivals can and cannot do — and what they can learn to do.

“I think we’ll see a bunch of these things,” Anderson says. “Siri will get much better. It will learn how you learn. We’ve never seen people have long-term relationships with machines before, but it will be a long-term relationship, and she will remember everything, but make good use of it. She will know you learn better by seeing than hearing, or that it takes three times to tell you something. All those things that you have to program today should be learnable. None of that has been done yet. That creates a real friendship. And I think we’re going to start seeing personal assistants not just for everyday life, but for professions like medicine or car repair. Instead of just having Siri be everything, there will be many Siris for different contexts.”

6. We enter the amazing world of Dave and HAL, as voice recognition comes of age. From hospital to car, mobile to home, Kinect to Siri, exercise to play, work to entertainment, remote control to direct action, from Microsoft to Apple, from Tellme to Nuance — the time has come for computers and humans to talk to each other. With lots of funny stories, big bloopers and amazing breakthroughs, humanity at the end of 2012 will be talking to machines in a normal voice, and it will not seem unusual, nor be the cause of unending frustration.

“The voice-recognition part is almost trivial,” Anderson says. “The important part is context-sensitive understanding. It used to be that all the researchers at Carnegie Mellon used to think that all you needed was more computing horsepower to do better at voice. It turned out that was wrong. It was right for a little while, but the real problem is context. And so, if you can build up that database where you can search it contextually for what to expect, that is where you get all the mileage.”

7. E-readers prosper, but pads continue to dominate what Anderson calls the “carry-along” market. Pads and tablets will come down in price and get closer to prices of e-readers. Meanwhile, Anderson says, Amazon’s Fire will move upmarket and evolve into a full-fledged tablet.

“If you look at the specs on the Fire, it’s a tablet, but it’s hobbled,” Anderson says. “So I think that this is part of the whole strategy: Come in and sell at a low price, and then later unveil a more complete tablet. Apple will stay ahead, though. A lot of people are asking me if Amazon will catch Apple, and the answer is no. The way it’s configured right now, there’s no way the Fire will catch up with the iPad.”

8. The consumption world explodes. Get ready for new devices, new content, new bundles, new connection techniques, new distribution channels, new aggregators, new tablets, new phones, new players, new self-published authors, new garage bands, new consumption models riding on social networks. There is nothing but high energy in the content consumer market. People are now ready to spend subscription money, and the publisher response will be huge. “It’s going to be a huge melee of stuff,” Anderson says. “We’ll invent more stuff to consume, and it will be very hard to figure out who the players are from week to week, and how they’re doing. They may not even know themselves.”

9. Governments and corporations focus on intellectual property as though it were their most prized asset. It is. This new global understanding leads to a reevaluation regarding giving critical IP away for nothing versus protecting it. The age of what Anderson calls “IP naïveté” is over, and the question of proper IP valuation is here.

What is IP naïveté? “When Jeff Immelt stood on the steps of the White House the day after he was named jobs czar, and handed the plans for GE’s most important jet-engine project to Hu Jintao in order to get the permission to be allowed to bid on maybe selling engines to China — that’s IP naïveté,” Anderson says. “Thinking that’s not going to come back and show up for sale in Houston from some Chinese company in about six months is IP naïveté.”

During 2012, he says, companies and countries will start valuing their intellectual property not for its replacement value, but for figures that are magnitudes larger. State-sponsored IP theft will shift from being considered a nuisance and more along the lines of an act of aggression.

10. Amazon gets it all. Between outdoing Wal-Mart online, to beating the booksellers and delivering groceries, and making new inroads in video streaming, Amazon will prove that one company can indeed have it all. Strong Kindle and Fire sales will only be icing on the cake.

Apple rolled out a new iPhone today. Sort of.

Except it did not have a bigger, flatter screen. It did not have a sleeker, thinner body. It would not need all new polypropylene sleeves and other fancy accessories.

In other words, it was not an iPhone 5.

Oops, after all the breathless stories about this ideal and groundbreaking new device and predictions — including here — that this was the name of whatever Apple was releasing.

In fact, everyone was using that moniker for it, from local television news to vendors to my mother.

Instead, the tech giant launched the new iPhone 4S, which has a faster processor, an improved camera and Siri voice control feature, at a cheaper price.

Very slick, as usual, and full of cool Apple bells and whistles.

Still. Prolonged sighs could be felt all over the blogosphere and on Twitter, where Steve Brown tweeted me: “Can I be bummed now?!?”

You may.

Better still, Davin Bentti wrote: “The ‘S’ stands for ‘Steve, come back!’”

He was referring to the missing Apple icon Steve Jobs, who recently turned over leadership at the company to new CEO Tim Cook. Jobs’s Apple event performances are legendary.

Wall Street also had its iPhone 5 bubble burst, with investors shunning Apple stock. Shares are down almost five percent now.

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MicroHoo is funky!

At least according to Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz on the Silicon Valley search giant’s first-quarter earnings conference call about its recent financial performance.

Yahoo’s results showed a continued worrisome revenue growth stall, due in large part to a search advertising fall-off, and a still-turning turnaround.

Yahoo reported revenues of $1.06 billion, down six percent from a year ago, on net earnings of 17 cents a share, down 28 percent.

The results were essentially in line with Wall Street expectations.

2:03 pm PT: The call started right on time, as per usual. Maybe they can’t get search right anymore, but Yahoo execs sure know how to start an analysts’ confab.

Bartz started off the call, noting “overall, our turnaround is proceeding on schedule.”

Well, the schedule of a three-toed sloth, I suppose, but it’s on schedule!

Bartz is too smart, though, and quickly noted the problems with search revenue declines, related to its search and online advertising partnership with Microsoft.

Still, she then used the unusual term “funky comparisons” to dismiss the key issue.

But isn’t she the one who struck the funky deal with Microsoft that has resulted in these funky comparisons and these even funkier search advertising revenues?

Just askin’!

Bartz proceeded quickly to noting Yahoo’s advances due to technology improvements, which showed a doubling of impressions to big events such as the Super Bowl and the Oscars.

It’s a good point, since Yahoo–for all its troubles–is still a huge traffic driver, including serving up 1.3 billion page views for the Oscars.

Bartz talked about monetization and said a lot of other stuff, but got to the finances quickly.

“Search was a mixed bag,” she said flatly. You can say that again–but not in a good way.

Bartz tried to put a good-news spin on it, but had to admit that “on the downside [Microsoft's] adCenter is not seeing strong RPS,” she said.

That’s revenue per search and a key number that Yahoo had thought would be better by now.

Bartz noted that the paid search markets internationally will be delayed until MicroHoo gets its act together.

Good idea!

2:16 pm: CFO Tim Morse took over to go through the numbers.

“We had good display momentum around the globe,” he said.

But search was, um, bad. It underperformed, but Yahoo had that guarantee from Microsoft to pay out, which Morse called a “financial floor.”

Morse pretty much read the press release from here on out.

2:24 pm: Bartz was back talking up the huge audience Yahoo has abroad. And it is true–the Yahoo brand is a golden one globally.

Also video consumption is up too, as it is across the Web, in terms of views and time spent. Yahoo’s “Primetime in No Time” got 500 million streams in the quarter.

Bartz turned to mobile, which is weak no matter what she said about the laudable Livestand. It’s one of many in a very competitive market.

Same for social, which Yahoo has essentially abdicated to Facebook. That said, Yahoo has tried to weave social within its myriad of sites and it gets it, especially compared to the socially awkward Google.

Bartz summed up that she hoped everyone gets that profitability and revenue growth were on track to get better, promising more at the investor day in May.

2:30 pm: Q&A time!

The first question is about display growth. It’s a softball, since display was up.

The next is about other revenue growth areas to come.

Bartz–who seemed not so prepped for such an obvious question–ticked off shopping, travel and uuuuuh….

Morse jumped in and talked about making internal connections, which I also did not understand.

An analyst then wanted to “dig into” search problems. I’d say it’s time to call in Mike Mulligan and his steam shovel!

Relative to RPS, Bartz acknowledged it was low and everyone was studying the issue. There is a plan, apparently. Again, Bartz was maddeningly vague.

I missed the next question and then it was back to search.

Bartz was not getting too specific about search, but would say video advertising was going to do well.

She did note that Yahoo expected a dip in Q1 related to search revenue, “but the dip went a little lower than we expected and lasted a little longer than expected.”

Bartz said she had recently sat down with Microsoft execs to go over the problems. How much would I have liked to have been a fly on that wall!

The next question was about video and it turns out Bartz loves the babbling babies too! I knew we had something cool in common.

The next question is about Japan and the possible deal to sell off Yahoo’s ownership of Yahoo Japan!

Morse said diddly, except “we continue to make progress.”

A question about display and possible content verticals.

Verticals Yahoo is interested in, according to Bartz: Entertainment, lifestyle, women, gossip.

“The things people really want to do, they want to disappear,” said Bartz, which was an interesting way of putting it.

Yet another question in what was beginning to feel like an endless call.

It was about Right Media, Yahoo’s advertising exchange. Cleaning it up, etc.

The next question is about communications, as in email.

Bartz even sounded bored and messed up a few words. “I’ve had too many Diet Cokes,” she joked.

Personally, I am considering disappearing into some content, since there is yet another question.

It’s–no surprise–an RPS question!

Funky!

Search guarantee payments from Microsoft are in place for another four quarters. Thank goodness.

Bartz got more detailed about the problems. There is some kind of prediction issue, which she said Microsoft is working on.

Now a local advertising question and its relationship with Facebook.

Bartz grabbed this one by the horns, noting you don’t have to run to the social networking powerhouse to get you a social ad!

It’s about branding with a social component. Which would be, um, Facebook, which was part of Yahoo’s Chrysler campaign referenced by Bartz.

A question about daily deals.

It’s growing, but more at Groupon and LivingSocial, which Morse does not mention.

Finally, the last question.

Another gigantic softball on engagement and Yahoo’s new content platform and some mobile deets query about whether Yahoo can make it there.

Bartz said she was working on it. As to content, Bartz said stats show big lifts.

“The good news is that it’s all in the right direction,” she said.

Up would certainly be good.

Microsoft on Thursday reported earnings and revenue that topped expectations and rose significantly from a year ago amid strong sales from its Xbox unit.

For the three months ended Dec. 31, Microsoft earned $6.63 billion, or 77 cents per share, on revenue of $19.95 billion. The per-share number is up from 74 cents a year ago and ahead of the analysts’ average prediction of about 68 cents per share.

“We are enthusiastic about the consumer response to our holiday lineup of products, including the launch of Kinect,” CFO Peter Klein said in a statement. “The 8 million units of Kinect sensors sold in just 60 days far exceeded our expectations,” said Peter Klein, chief financial officer at Microsoft. “The pace of business spending, combined with strong consumer demand, led to another quarter of operating margin expansion and solid earnings per share growth.”

Not only were the results ahead of estimates financially–they were also ahead of estimates chronologically, as the company accidentally released the information before the end of regular trading on Thursday. Results were expected to be released after the closing bell.

“A preproduction draft of our earnings release was discovered by one or more media sources who then published our results to the web before market close,” Microsoft said in a statement. “After consulting with NASDAQ, we have posted our official numbers. We apologize for any confusion and will review our procedures to ensure this does not happen again.”

With the results from the past quarter, Apple passed Microsoft slightly in quarterly revenue, but did not–as some analysts thought might happen–surpass Redmond in profits as well. The company also noted it bought back $5 billion in shares during the quarter and handed out $1.3 billion in dividends to shareholders.

The gaming unit wasn’t the only part of Microsoft going strong. Redmond said its Office unit also had a big quarter, growing 24 percent from a year earlier, and that Windows 7 license sales have now passed 300 million.

“Business demand for our productivity and infrastructure products and cloud solutions is strong,” COO Kevin Turner said in a statement. “Office had a huge quarter, exceeding everyone’s expectations, and our roadmap for cloud productivity with Office 365 makes products like SharePoint, Exchange, Lync and Dynamics CRM even more attractive to our customers.”

The company noted in a PowerPoint presentation accompanying its results that nine out of 10 businesses have now started their formal migration to Windows 7. Turner also pointed to Microsoft’s longer-term move to bring Windows to ARM-based processors.

“Windows 7 continues to be the fastest-growing operating system in history, and our recent system-on-a-chip announcement demonstrates our commitment that Windows will have the power and flexibility to run everywhere and on every device,” he said.

The company also said its online advertising sales were up 23 percent during the quarter.

However, Microsoft’s outlook was limited, offering guidance only for what it expects its operating expenses to be. In the PowerPoint, Microsoft offered a bit more information, detailing its unit-by-unit expectations relative to their markets. For example, the company said that Windows growth should roughly track the PC market, adjusting for some boost the company got a year ago from the launch of Windows 7. Server sales should also track the hardware market, with long-term licensing and services revenue growing in the high single digits for the current quarter and low double digits for the full fiscal year, which runs through the end of June. The company said the entertainment unit should enjoy year-over-year revenue growth of 50 percent for the current quarter and 40 percent for the full fiscal year.

Here’s a full look at the company’s segment-by-segment results (click to enlarge):

Unaffiliated analysts, who often do a better job of predicting Apple’s performance than their professional counterparts, are taking an even more bullish view. Bullish Cross’s Andy Zaky–who called Apple’s Q4 EPS almost to the penny–for example, is looking for the company to post a $2 billion top-line beat. He sees Apple reporting $6.29 in earnings per share on approximately $26.3 billion in revenue. That’s quite a bit more than the $4.80 EPS on $23 billion that Apple’s guided for. Is it possible? We’ll find out this afternoon.

That’s according to Chitika, which has been tracking iPad adoption rates on its ad network (three billion ads served monthly across more than 100,000 sites) for some time now.

As of this month, the iPad accounts for 0.83 percent of all traffic on Chitika’s network, research director Daniel Ruby tells me. And at current growth rates, which have been steady since the device’s launch, it should hit 2.3 percent by the end of next year. To get that metric, Ruby took the past two months’ data trends for iPad growth relative to the full network’s traffic and, after accounting for spikes and dips, built out a growth line for the next twelve months. And while Chitika has taken some flak in the past for inaccuracies with its iPad sales counter, Ruby says he’s confident about this particular projection because he’s predicting a metric Chitika can directly measure.

Said Ruby, “For the sake of perspective, the iPad is already on par with Linux in terms of Internet usage market share [in North America] and is on pace to more than double its presence by the end of 2011.”

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter ModestMouse]

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has finally named a new CEO, and, despite our prediction that it would choose an internal candidate like Todd Bradley or Anne Livermore, the company instead looked to an outsider.

On Thursday afternoon, HP named Léo Apotheker–former CEO of SAP (SAP)–as its new chief executive officer.

And, in a jab at Oracle–which hired former HP CEO Mark Hurd after his ouster–it tapped Ray Lane, a former president and COO at Oracle (ORCL), as its non-executive chairman of the board. Lane is currently a managing partner at VC powerhouse Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.

Interesting choices. Particularly Apotheker, who was pushed out of SAP this past February after less than a year on the job. (He served as co-CEO with Henning Kagermann for a few years prior.)

Cathie Lesjak, who has been serving as interim CEO, will return to her previous role of CFO on November 1, when the new appointments become effective.

In a statement announcing the move, HP board member Robert Ryan said the company chose to hire Apotheker because he’s “a strategic thinker with a passion for technology, wide-reaching global experience, and proven operational discipline.”

At $40.80, HP shares are down about three percent on the news. Seems investors aren’t too keen on Apotheker’s appointment, even after weeks of leadership uncertainty.

Here’s the release:

Léo Apotheker Named CEO and President of HP

Ray Lane Joins HP as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board

PALO ALTO, Calif., Sept. 30, 2010–The Board of Directors of HP today announced the election of Léo Apotheker as Chief Executive Officer and President. Apotheker, who previously served as CEO of SAP, will also join HP’s Board of Directors. The Board also elected Ray Lane, Managing Partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, as a new member of the Board and designated him as non- executive Chairman. Both elections are effective November 1.

During Apotheker’s more than 20 years at SAP, he was a driving force in making it the largest business software applications company in the world. Apotheker helped develop and implement the most significant changes in SAP history. During his tenure, he transformed R&D and technology platforms and expanded business models and customer segments. Apotheker also helped lead SAP to 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit software revenue growth between 2004 and 2009.

Lane has served on the Board of Directors of more than 20 public and private companies and joined Kleiner Perkins in 2000. Previously, he served as President and Chief Operating Officer at Oracle Corporation. Earlier in his career, Lane also worked at Booz Allen Hamilton, EDS and IBM.

“Léo is a strategic thinker with a passion for technology, wide-reaching global experience and proven operational discipline–exactly what we were looking for in a CEO,” said Robert Ryan, lead independent director of the Board. “After more than two decades in the industry, he has a strong track record of driving technological innovation, building customer relationships and developing world- class teams.”

Ryan continued, “Léo has been a leader in anticipating the transformation taking place in our industry, and we believe he is uniquely positioned to help accelerate HP’s strategy. He has demonstrated success in the U.S. market and also has vast international experience – which will be a major asset as HP continues to expand globally, particularly in high-growth emerging markets. HP has the right assets and market positions, and now we have the best team to realize the company’s enormous potential.”

“HP has a powerful mix of businesses, products and services, one of the most innovative cultures in the industry, and an accomplished management team who have played a critical role in its success,” said Apotheker. “I am deeply honored to be joining the more than 300,000 dedicated HP employees.”

Apotheker continued, “Given HP’s diversified products and services, its financial strength, and its leadership position across markets, no other company is as well positioned to drive – and profit from – the revolutionary changes under way in the marketplace. As we move forward, HP will continue to be a valued partner with our customers as well as a fierce competitor. I look forward to working with the outstanding people at HP to write the next chapter in the company’s long and proud history.”

“I am excited to join the Board of this pioneering company, and look forward to working closely with Léo – and the rest of the Board and senior management team – as they capitalize on the changes taking place across the industry,” Lane said. “I have known and admired Léo for almost 20 years. He is ideally suited to build on HP’s strong foundation, leverage its many assets and keep the company at the forefront of innovation.”

Apotheker will succeed Cathie Lesjak, who was named interim CEO in August 2010. Lesjak, who has served as HP’s Chief Financial Officer since January 2007, remains CFO and continues to serve as a member of the Executive Council. Ryan said, “Cathie is and will continue to be an important part of HP. We are extremely fortunate to have one of the deepest, most talented senior management teams in the industry and to have someone of Cathie’s caliber lead HP during this interim period. On behalf of the entire Board, I would like to thank Cathie and our senior management team for maintaining HP’s focus on serving customers and continuing to execute our strategy.”

“Given the size of the iPhone 4 pre-order and our analysis of the expected upgrade cycle, particularly the remaining 3G users, we believe the full launch weekend of June 24-27 is shaping up to potentially be a 2 million-3 million iPhone event,” Fidacaro said in a research note today.

“[That’s] about 2-3x higher than the one million units sold over the first three days for both the 3GS and 3G launches,” the analyst added. “The strong initial demand seen during the pre-order is a positive for the June quarter and has apparently been limited by supply with new orders now indicating a July 14 delivery date.”

With 600,000 pre-orders racked up as of Wednesday and a few days yet to take more, a two-million unit launch weekend for Apple (AAPL) doesn’t seem much of a stretch. Frankly, neither does three million, given the iPhone 4′s feature set and price, as well as the fact that this year’s launch weekend begins on a Thursday rather than a Friday.

FURTHER READING

• Walt Mossberg’s iPhone 4 Review
• Analysts Raise iPhone 4 Sales Forecasts From Huge to Ginormous
• New iPhone 4 Pre-Orders Now Delayed to July 14
• Apple: Sorry We Sold 600,000 iPhone 4s Yesterday
• iPhone 4 Pre-Orders Sold Out at Apple, Suspended at AT&T
• What Happened to the White iPhone 4?
• AT&T Now Dropping iPhone Calls and iPhone 4 Pre-Orders
• And if You Have Any Questions About Your New iPhone 4, Just Ask Our Radio Shack Geniuses
• Everything You Need to Know About the iPhone 4

“We estimate Apple sold between 600-700k iPads (including online pre-orders which started on March 12th) on the first day (4/3),” he wrote. “It took Apple three days to sell a million iPhone 3GS and iPhone 3G’s, and 74 days to sell 1m original iPhones.”

Interestingly, Munster said that inventory is not quite as constrained as one would think given Apple’s decision last week to push some iPad pre-order shipments ahead to April 12.

“As of 7:30PM ET on Saturday night (4/3), 19 of 20 stores we called still had availability of all models, which is a positive for first day sales given Apple was able to fulfill most demand,” Munster wrote.

“In addition,” the analyst continued, “we noted longer than expected lines at the five Apple stores we surveyed. For example, at the 5th Ave Store in New York we counted 730 people in line at 9am (when iPad sales began) compared to our count of 350 people for iPhone 3GS, and 540 people for iPhone 3G.”

How much longer does Apple plan to continue its iPhone exclusivity contract with AT&T? Some say until June, when the device arrives on Verizon’s airwaves. Others say fall.

Not unreasonable predictions given issues with AT&T’s network and the simple fact that adding Verizon (VZ) would more than double the iPhone’s addressable market. But perhaps a bit overeager, particularly in light of Apple COO Tim Cook’s remarks about the carrier during a company earnings call Monday.

Asked about AT&T (T), the bad press its network has been receiving lately and the impact of negative reports on the Apple (AAPL) brand, Cook defended the carrier.

“First of all, AT&T is a great partner,” he said. “We’ve been working with them since well before we announced the first iPhone. And I think it is important to remember they had more mobile broadband usage than any other carrier in the world.”

Emphasizing the large view, Cook continued, “And in the vast majority of locations we think that iPhone customers are having a great experience, from the research that we have done. As you know, AT&T has acknowledged that they are having some issues in a few cities and they have very detailed plans to address these. We have personally reviewed these plans, and we have very high confidence that they will make significant progress toward fixing them.”

Now, Cook’s remarks certainly don’t preclude the possibility that Apple will end its exclusivity arrangement with AT&T. But his eager defense of the carrier suggests there’s at least a chance that his company will renew it.

Of course, Apple did a hell of a job talking up the PowerPC architecture too–right up until it dumped it for Intel’s (INTC) x86 design in 2006.

One good thing about taking a break between Christmas and New Year’s is getting to miss all the 2010 prediction stories out there about the tech world.

You know the tedious drill: The Consumer Electronics Show’s products this year indicate cloud computing has finally arrived; the Apple (AAPL) iSlate will bring world peace; it will be revealed that Google’s co-founders are aliens (wait, that one is true).

Oh, BoomTown will admit that I used to do them too–or, more precisely, was dragooned into doing them by weary editors when I was writing for The Wall Street Journal.

But, to be honest, they were mostly off-base in some significant way or, if by some chance I got one right, it was definitely a very lucky guess.

So, last year, I made a resolution I am keeping this year: No predictions.

As I wrote a year ago:

“But the real reason I am not inclined to go all Miss Cleo is simple: I have no idea what is going to happen and neither does anyone, even in their heedless guessing.”

Thus, I will only speak of certainties, and here is what I can absolutely promise for this column and All Things Digital in general in 2010:

* Breaking news of digital and media companies, including lots and lots of accurate scoops, such as a heap we managed to ferret out last year.

* Cogent and enlightening analysis of key trends in the online sector.

* Major interviews with important players in the industries we cover.

* More streaming video–including this Friday’s live onstage interviews with Palm (PALM) CEO Jon Rubinstein, Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings and Google (GOOG) Android guru Andy Rubin, all at our special event in Las Vegas during CES.

* An effort to get out of the tech-centric Silicon Valley weeds more and attempt to do longer reported pieces that take on big topics, showing that blogs can take up the banner of long-form investigative journalism from print publications and do this important work in new and innovative ways.

* The same strong commitment to the high standards and ethics in doing all of the above, which is perhaps the greatest and most critical compact we need to keep with readers.

* We also hope to grow our coverage, as well as produce a crackerjack eighth D: All Things Digital conference in June, and much more.

This site grew strongly in 2009, in terms of both traffic and engagement, and we hope to do even better in 2010 by providing readers with the highest-quality and most accurate tech and media coverage we can.

And while I cannot predict we will reach that goal, I can promise you that we will try our best.

The numbers are pretty striking:

It’s easy enough to figure out why this happening. Economies of scale mean the big guys can cater to price-conscious shoppers, and a crummy economy makes their marketing advantage over the little guys even more pronounced.

I’d argue that there’s a trepidation factor, too. I’ll admit that I’ve been wavering on buying a gadget in large part because the only place on the Web that sells it is the manufacturer’s site.  Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT) must know this, since they’ve bought the search keywords for the gizmo even though they don’t sell it. Sneaky.

Meanwhile, comScore says, overall online spending is up four percent this holiday season, running ahead of the tracking service’s prediction of a three percent bump.

“What we have at the moment is rather like wasted muscle tissue,” researcher Mark Post told the Sunday Times. “We need to find ways of improving it by training it and stretching it, but we will get there.” If Post and his colleagues are able to do that, we may end up with an environmentally friendly meat that reduces the impact of food production. Said Post, “You could take the meat from one animal and create the volume of meat previously provided by a million animals.”

Vladimir Mironov, a tissue engineer at the Medical University of South Carolina, envisions a day when we use countertop bioreactors to make our meat–steaks and chops with nutritional profiles that we have predetermined. “It would look like a coffee maker,” Mironov said back in 2007. “This is my dream.”

Sadly for Mironov, he wasn’t able to find funding. NASA turned down his request for a grant, and the lone group that did express interest in his work, taking the you-are-what-you-eat philosophy full circle, was interested in meat cultured from its members’ own cells. Mironov declined to identify that particular…diners’ club, but said, “I don’t want to participate in high-tech human cannibalism.”

Overall, Forrester predicts, U.S. consumers will purchase three million e-readers by the end of this year. That’s a bump from the analyst shop’s earlier prediction of two million. It thinks Amazon (AMZN) will claim 60 percent of the market, with Sony (SNE) taking 35 percent and the rest going to also-rans like iRex.

Have to say, I find that one a bit head-scratching: I gather that Sony’s device is supposed to have created a footprint overseas, but while I see the occasional Kindle on the subway or an airplane, I have never, ever, ever seen a Sony reader in the wild. Have you?

For what it’s worth, Forrester figures e-reader sales will double, to six million next year, pushed by media buzz along with the introduction of new devices, including the Apple (AAPL) wondertablet that everyone is convinced will show up–someday. They may even be right.

Interesting. So, given the continuing volution of the financial crisis, can we expect further budget adjustments in the future? McDonald doesn’t think so. “CIOs gave us every indication that the budgets they have now are the budgets they will have for the rest of the year,” he said. “The number who have a contingency plan is only about half, and most of those CIOs don’t believe they’re going to have to execute those contingency plans….Of the CIOs we surveyed, 38% expect to see a recovery by September 2010, and another 32% expect a recovery by March of 2010. Only 24% said it would be beyond September 2010.”

The hit reality TV show holds its 2009 season finale on Wednesday night, when either Adam Lambert or Kris Allen will be crowned as winner.

Biz360, a company that measures blog and other social media chatter for companies, has been turning its technology into an “Idol” predictor in recent weeks. Measuring both the volume and tone of coverage, it accurately predicted that Matt Girard, Allison Iraheta and Danny Gokey would be voted off the show, in that order.

But while the Biz360 folks worked through the night trying to read the tech tea leaves, they say that it is just too close to call. As of Wednesday morning, Lambert had an edge over Allen of just 1 percent, they said.

Read the rest of this post on the original site

Well, JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens’s assessment of Oracle’s business these past few months was about as wrong as wrong can be, wasn’t it? In early March, Walravens predicted the company’s February quarter would be an abysmal one. “Our due diligence suggests that the February quarter was, in some respects, the worst Oracle has experienced in over 15 years,” he said. “The tone of the commentary from our industry sources regarding new license revenue is the worst we have ever heard.”

Two weeks later the company posts better-than-expected results for that quarter and announces a dividend–its first ever. So much for Walraven’s worst-quarter-in-15-years prediction.

So what did the analyst have to say for himself in light of Oracle’s report? “It surprised me in almost every way,” he told MarketWatch. “[It] doesn’t square with what you hear from people in the industry.”

Well, it certainly doesn’t square with what we were hearing from you, Patrick…

Well, JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens’s assessment of Oracle’s business these past few months was about as wrong as wrong can be, wasn’t it? In early March, Walravens predicted the company’s February quarter would be an abysmal one. “Our due diligence suggests that the February quarter was, in some respects, the worst Oracle has experienced in over 15 years,” he said. “The tone of the commentary from our industry sources regarding new license revenue is the worst we have ever heard.”

Two weeks later the company posts better-than-expected results for that quarter and announces a dividend–its first ever. So much for Walraven’s worst-quarter-in-15-years prediction.

So what did the analyst have to say for himself in light of Oracle’s report? “It surprised me in almost every way,” he told MarketWatch. “[It] doesn’t square with what you hear from people in the industry.”

Well, it certainly doesn’t square with what we were hearing from you, Patrick…

Oh, I’m sorry, is this the part where BoomTown is supposed to make a list of some sort of what I like and don’t like, what’s hot and what’s not, what’s going to happen and such to all the various players in the digital space?

I don’t think so.

Why? Well, when I have in the past or have read them from others, it’s a lot like Nostradamus. You can read into it anything you want.

For instance: Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs wrote a public letter today that essentially says he is not dying, as many speculated he was last week–without a trace of proof.

And, presto-chango, the thickest in the blogosphere then does another twisteroo and uses it as confirmation that he is in indeed sick and it was the true reason for his Macworld keynote pullout, even though Jobs says no such thing in the letter.

Or, more mundanely, I write: “Mobile will be bigger than ever.”

Well, to start, it is a kind of duh-prognostication. Plus it is essentially meaningless, since obviously more folks on the planet means more cellphones.

Or, what about: “Twitter/Facebook/Digg/Fill-In-The-Overhyped-Start-Up will sell to a major media giant.”

Okay, maybe, if any of those major media stocks were not in the toilet and their execs decided to do another Bebo/CNET/Fill-In-The-Overhyped-Start-Up cash belly flop like last year.

You get the idea.

But the real reason I am not inclined to go all Miss Cleo is simple: I have no idea what is going to happen and neither does anyone, even in their heedless guessing.

Did we imagine Microsoft (MSFT) would launch a hostile attack on Yahoo (YHOO)? No, we did not.

Did we guess that Google (GOOG) stock would tank to half its value in a massive U.S. economic collapse? Nope, sister.

Did we know that Apple apps would take off like gangbusters, even as rumors of Jobs’s imminent demise would too? Sorry, but we didn’t, including you in the back there insisting you did.

Did we foresee that the insane valuations for Web 2.0 companies like Facebook and others would drop like the ball in Times Square on New Year’s?

Wait, we got that one right.

Here are the only predictions I can make, which is that these will be the topics that everyone will be chattering about in tech in 2009:

AppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleApple
AppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleApple
AppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleApple
AppleSteveIsSickAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleApple
AppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleAppleApple

Also:

TwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitter
TwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitter
TwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitter
TwitterTwitterTwitterDidYouKnowSteveIsSick?TwitterTwitterTwitter
TwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitterTwitter

And:

Yahoo!

Wait, that’s just me.