The social networking giant has just added five more lead investment banks to its IPO from the original six, according to an updated filing. On top of that, Facebook added another 20 investment banks that will get a piece of the action.

The new members to the lead group are Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Securities, RBC Capital Markets, Wells Fargo Securities.

Read the rest of this post on the original site »

Here’s the email that Cablevision sent to its customer base last night, explaining how they can get legal streams of the World Series delivered to their homes on the Web, via MLB.com. It’s a fancier version of the message I delivered two weeks ago, except that this time Cablevision is promising to pick up the $10 fee, too:

Is anyone going to take Cablevision up on the offer? A note from RBC Capital Markets this morning guesses that perhaps 150,000 subscribers may go for it, which would generate a $1.5 million bill for Jim Dolan and company. I’ve asked Cablevision if it can provide any numbers for the offer, which kicked off last night before Game 1 of the Series. UPDATE: “Thousands” of customers have sent in receipts for reimbursement, says a Cablevision rep.

Of course, the real risk for Cablevision isn’t the one-time payout it may have to fork over. It’s that increasing numbers of consumers learn to live without cable and get their video fix over the Web.

But that’s a risk for Fox, too: Like all of the broadcast networks, it wants the cable guys to start paying it for its programming, and if people start cord-cutting in real numbers, then the cable guys won’t have much to hand over.

Which is why it’s surprising that this rights-fee fight has lasted as long as it has–there’s no ideological difference between the two sides here, only a money gap. But the longer it remains open, the more both sides have to lose. (Disclosure: News Corp. also owns Dow Jones, which owns this Web site).

So if, come January, Verizon (VZ) were to offer the iPhone, what might happen?

Well, for one thing, the addition of a second U.S. carrier would likely slow sales of smartphones running Google’s (GOOG) Android OS a bit. “Adding Verizon would significantly blunt the competitive threat from the Android platform, whose favored status at Verizon has been critical to its building momentum,” says Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner. “We suspect the momentum could turn in the face of direct competition from the iPhone.”

For another, Apple (AAPL) would sell a hell of a lot more iPhones. Verizon has a post-paid subscriber base of 83 million. And according to Reiner, it would likely generate 12 million new unit sales for Apple next year. That would translate to more than $7 billion in incremental revenue and more than $3.00 in incremental earnings-per-share.

That’s a fairly bullish scenario–perhaps a bit too bullish. RBC analyst Mike Abramsky sees a deal with Verizon spiking iPhone sales, but he believes that spike would be dulled a bit by AT&T’s (T) decision to make its subscribers eligible for an iPhone 4 a year before their contracts expired and a few other things as well. “Prior Canadian and UK iPhone transitions to multi-carrier distribution [stimulated] an upgrade cycle and [expanded] the local smartphone market,” Abramsky explains. “However, this is offset by: 1) majority of potential iPhone buyers had already switched to 1st network; 2) Android smartphones now offer reasonable competition; and 3) iPhone upgrade offers at 1st carrier locks in existing users.”

Still, as I’ve written here before, a move to nonexclusivity in the U.S. would certainly brutalize AT&T’s subscriber base, at least a bit. Analysts have long said that a material number of AT&T iPhone users would flock to Verizon’s superior network given the chance.

“People are loving iPad as it becomes a part of their daily lives,” CEO Steve Jobs said in a statement. “We’re working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more people around the world, including those in nine more countries next month.”

The current pace of iPad sales means Apple (AAPL) appears on track to blow the doors off most analyst estimates. Earlier this year, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi predicted sales would hit five million units in the first year, while Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Katy Huberty was looking for more than six million. More recently, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky bullishly predicted sales of eight million, which at this point seem entirely realistic.

The official release below.

Apple Sells Three Million iPads in 80 Days

CUPERTINO, California–June 22, 2010–Apple® today announced that it sold its three millionth iPad™ yesterday, just 80 days after its introduction in the US. iPad is a revolutionary and magical product that allows users to connect with their apps, content and the Internet in a more intimate, intuitive and fun way than ever before.

“People are loving iPad as it becomes a part of their daily lives,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We’re working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more people around the world, including those in nine more countries next month.”

Developers have created over 11,000 exciting new apps for iPad that take advantage of its Multi-Touch™ user interface, large screen and high-quality graphics. iPad will run almost all of the more than 225,000 apps on the App Store, including apps already purchased for your iPhone® or iPod touch®.

Users can browse the web, read and send email, enjoy and share photos, watch HD videos, listen to music, play games, read ebooks and much more, all using iPad’s revolutionary Multi-Touch user interface. iPad is 0.5 inches thin and weighs just 1.5 pounds–thinner and lighter than any laptop or netbook–and delivers up to 10 hours of battery life.

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter modestmouse]

Noting that the nine countries in which the iPad debuted today are among Apple’s strongest international markets, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky said he expects the company to sell more iPads than Macs internationally–600,000 to 700,000 or more in the third quarter of fiscal 2010. Abramsky figures international Mac sales will come in at around 500,000.

Makes sense. As I noted here last week, iPad sales in the United States are believed to be outpacing those of the Mac and closing in on the iPhone 3GS.

“Industry contact feedback and previously published surveys point to strong International demand, supported by media reports of long lineups at Apple stores, and strong demand for iPads,” Abramsky wrote in a note to clients today. “iPads appear to be stocked out already at some stores and resellers, particularly in countries like Japan, Australia, and UK.”

With that in mind, Abramsky reiterates his earlier estimates for iPad sales. He believes Apple (AAPL) will sell 2.5 million iPads in Q3 and 8.1 million in calendar year 2010, adding, “Early healthy sell-through and rampant PR buzz–as it has been doing in North America–is expected to further raise demand and accelerate sell-through beyond early adopters….Over the upcoming months, we believe Apple will further ramp production to overcome initial supply shortages.” (Click on table below to enlarge.)

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter modestmouse and RBC Capital Markets]

Here’s a stunner of a data point: Apple is selling more than 200,000 iPads per week. Which means, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, that sales of the company’s new device have outpaced those of the Mac in the United States and are closing in on those of the iPhone 3GS.

“Checks indicate that US iPad sales remain strong post-launch, driven by rising consumer visibility to iPad’s user experience, sustained PR/word-of-mouth marketing, 3G iPad launch, and broadening iPad apps/content,” Abramsky wrote in a note to clients this morning. “We believe Apple is now selling >200k iPads/week, greater than US Macs (est. 110k Macs/week) and just below US iPhone 3GS first quart (246k/week).”

Evidently, there’s quite a bit of pent-up demand for the device. Retail checks in mid-May showing widespread iPad stockouts at Apple (AAPL) stores and Best Buy (BBY). The 3G iPad is sold out at many Apple stores, and about 25 percent of them now have only Wi-Fi iPads available. Waiting lists are not uncommon.

With that in mind–not to mention the device’s forthcoming international launch–Abramsky raised his global iPad outlook for 2010 from five million to eight million.

Abramsky’s is one of the most bullish iPad sales estimates to date, though it certainly has company. Earlier this year, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi predicted sales will hit five million units in the first year, while Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Katy Huberty said they’d likely exceed six million. (Click on table and chart below to enlarge.)

One last point: Before we go jumping to conclusions about cannibalization of Mac sales, recall Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s remarks after reviewing NPD’s April sales data for Apple:

The iPad launched in US Apple retail stores on 4/3, impacting nearly the entire month of Apple’s sales in April. As a result, April NPD data gives us the first sign of the degree to which the iPad cannibalizes iPod or Mac sales. From the early NPD data, it appears that the iPad has a minimal cannibalization impact on Mac sales, and could be slightly cannibalizing iPod sales.

[Image credit: Gizmodo commenter modestmouse and RBC Capital Markets]

RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky expects Apple (AAPL) to sell five million tablets in the product’s first year at market. At a retail price of $600 and a 30 percent gross margin, that would generate about $2.8 billion in revenue and add 30 cents to earnings per share. This assumes the tablet is neither a hit (iPhone) nor a niche product (MacBook Air), but ends up somewhere in between, the scenario Abramsky believes most likely.

As Abramsky cautions, nailing the sweet spot on price is crucial to the device’s success. “Pricing is key….Significant demand exists at $500-799, narrowing at $1000 at which level subsidies may be needed (assuming a mobile data version) for mass acceptance, suggesting both retail and carrier marketing/distribution similar to iPhone.”

The analyst asserts that “An Apple tablet priced at $500-700 unsubsidized ($200-300 subsidized) strikes squarely at heart of the entry level laptop and Netbook markets. Although the tablet would not offer the breadth of features or raw performance of traditional laptops, it would deliver an optimal experience for buyers looking for user-friendly, media-centric computing at entry-level price points.”

As for the effect of the tablet on other Apple products, “The tablet may cannibalize some Mac and iPod Touch buyers (est. 2-5% in scenario analysis), but the lack of Mac OS X compatibility (and emulated Windows) reduces the appeal of the tablet as a Mac replacement for Apple’s traditional premium Mac buyers.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Apple’s Tablet: MacBook Airbus?
• Apple Announces Jan. 27 Special Event: “Come See Our Latest Creation”
• Major Apple Product Announcement Set for Wednesday, Jan. 27
• Apple Pitching Tablet to Publishing Industry; Spring Launch Expected
• Time (Finally) for the Tablet? Apple Developers Supersizing Their Apps for January Event.
• The Apple Tablet Is Delayed? So What?
• $1.9 Billion in Capex? What’s Apple Planning?
• Apple’s Tablet: Read Different?
• Imaginary Demand for Mythical Apple Tablet Exceeds All Estimates
• Apple Tablet Coming to AT&T?
• New From Piper Jaffray Analyst Gene Munster: The Apple iPad
• Rumored Apple Netbook Actually an E-Book?
• iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed
• iFugly

Consider this: For the satellite radio company’s current quarter, RBC Capital Markets expected Sirius (SIRI) to add 49,000 new subscribers. At the time it was issued, that projection was described as “cautiously optimistic.” And it was…far too cautious. Because after market close Tuesday, Sirius said it added 257,028 net new subscribers in the fourth quarter–the most since the third quarter of 2008.

The company ended the year with 18,772,758 subscribers. Now that’s not the 20.6 million for which CEO Mel Karmazin had been hoping, but it’s impressive nonetheless and suggests that Sirius may indeed be turning the corner. Further evidence: The company also said it will report more than $100 million in free cash flow for the full year. This, after posting negative free cash flow of $552 million in 2008.

But according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, Palm (PALM) is coming around and 2010 will be an inflection point for the company, which will thrive as it enlists more carriers worldwide to expand its installed base–carriers like Verizon (VZ) and France’s SFR, which both announced the addition of the Palm Pre Plus and Pixi Plus to their handset lineups at the Consumer Electronics Show yesterday.

AT&T (T) will be joining Verizon and SFR, although Palm seems to be a bit coy about this officially).

“Palm’s growing global distribution and developer momentum are a clear signal to us of Palm’s unique strengths and differentiation amidst competition, and bodes well for future Smartphone leadership,” Abramsky wrote in a note to clients today.

“While addressing awareness challenges,” the analyst added, these “significant carrier agreements and innovations are clear signposts towards Palm’s successful turnaround–which in our view investors should not dismiss.”

So, even though Palm’s share of the global smartphone market fell to 1.4 percent in the third quarter from 2.7 percent a year earlier, things are looking up. “While addressing near-term turnaround challenges (e.g. awareness), we foresee further upside for the shares as Palm’s product portfolio broadens, its install base expands, it gains scale and momentum–and investor concerns dissipate,” Abramsky concludes.

And if things shouldn’t quite pan out that way, Abramsky notes, there’s always this: “Palm also remains an attractive acquisition candidate.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm’s Biggest Problem: Sprint
• Palm Disappoints
• Palm Posts Loss, Announces Stock Offering
• Analyst: Palm’s Special Sauce Is Finger Lickin’ Good
• Palm: The Turnaround Story of the Year
• Pre Makes Palm a New Man in Only Minutes a Day
• Palm: Execution Is Everything

Consensus seems to be that the Droid is the device that will get Motorola back into the game. Indeed, Technology Business Research’s Ken Hyers says the Droid is likely a “serious challenger to the iPhone.”

Over at RBC Capital Markets, Mark Sue says good things as well. “The Droids are coming and Motorola will be an important part of Verizon’s push for smartphone differentiation,” he wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “In addition to compelling products, Motorola seems to have gotten back into the good graces of the North American carrier federation, which should aggressively push the new devices.”

Of course, these endorsements don’t necessarily mean that Motorola is poised to return to its past glory. And they certainly don’t guarantee the Christmas turnaround the company is clearly hoping for. After all, the smart-phone market is far more competitive now than it was when Motorola last dominated it back in 2004.

Said Morningstar analyst Joseph Beaulieu: “[I’m not sure the Droid] will be good enough to cut through the noise that you’re getting from Apple iPhone, HTC’s Hero, Research In Motion’s BlackBerry and even Palm’s Pre and upcoming Pixi.”

Consensus seems to be that the Droid is the device that will get Motorola back into the game. Indeed, Technology Business Research’s Ken Hyers says the Droid is likely a “serious challenger to the iPhone.”

Over at RBC Capital Markets, Mark Sue says good things as well. “The Droids are coming and Motorola will be an important part of Verizon’s push for smartphone differentiation,” he wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “In addition to compelling products, Motorola seems to have gotten back into the good graces of the North American carrier federation, which should aggressively push the new devices.”

Of course, these endorsements don’t necessarily mean that Motorola is poised to return to its past glory. And they certainly don’t guarantee the Christmas turnaround the company is clearly hoping for. After all, the smart-phone market is far more competitive now than it was when Motorola last dominated it back in 2004.

Said Morningstar analyst Joseph Beaulieu: “[I’m not sure the Droid] will be good enough to cut through the noise that you’re getting from Apple iPhone, HTC’s Hero, Research In Motion’s BlackBerry and even Palm’s Pre and upcoming Pixi.”

“We are very impressed by Apple’s ability to post a record profit quarter during difficult macro spending conditions,” Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek said in a note to clients this morning. “A host of new product introductions and continued traction with the iPhone give us confidence in the sustainability of Apple’s operating model.”

Suffice it to say, Misek wasn’t the only the analyst lauding Apple’s (AAPL) fourth-quarter performance. Below a selection of commentary from other Apple watchers:

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
“September results were strong despite headwinds of iPhone production constraints and a Mac desktop offering in need of a refresh. We expect these headwinds to become tailwinds in the December quarter, which we believe will be positive for AAPL shares in the coming months.”

Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets
“With strong financial performance and product uptake amidst recession, and further catalysts (iPhone in China, Tablet, refreshed iMacs, iPhone share gains/momentum), we foresee further upside for the shares.”

Maynard Um, UBS
“Upside to virtually every metric in the qtr backs our positive view on Apple. We continue expect greater “recurring” iPhone hardware revenue (growing installed base & stickiness of the App Store), which should drive more visibility into iPhone sales (20%+ of our FY10 iPhone shipments), as well as iPhone expansion driven by new partnerships (& end of exclusivities). Longer term, we believe a service to provide seamless access & mobility of digital content across all products may be the draw (halo) that drives additional future Apple product sales.”

Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
“Overall, Q4:09 was a strong quarter for Apple, as the Mac is nearly becoming the de facto computer for the back-to-school season. Additionally, iPhone trends remain remarkably strong, with unit economics holding up at unheard of levels in the wireless industry.”

Yair Rainer, Oppenheimer
“As usual, Apple appears to be leaving plenty of room for upside surprises to both revenue and margins. On the revenue side, Apple should benefit from continued Mac momentum (particularly in Europe), higher recognized iPhone revenue, and some channel fill for both Mac and iPhone. Gross margin upside is likely to come from a higher proportion of recognized, high-margin iPhone revenue.”

“We are very impressed by Apple’s ability to post a record profit quarter during difficult macro spending conditions,” Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek said in a note to clients this morning. “A host of new product introductions and continued traction with the iPhone give us confidence in the sustainability of Apple’s operating model.”

Suffice it to say, Misek wasn’t the only the analyst lauding Apple’s (AAPL) fourth-quarter performance. Below a selection of commentary from other Apple watchers:

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
“September results were strong despite headwinds of iPhone production constraints and a Mac desktop offering in need of a refresh. We expect these headwinds to become tailwinds in the December quarter, which we believe will be positive for AAPL shares in the coming months.”

Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets
“With strong financial performance and product uptake amidst recession, and further catalysts (iPhone in China, Tablet, refreshed iMacs, iPhone share gains/momentum), we foresee further upside for the shares.”

Maynard Um, UBS
“Upside to virtually every metric in the qtr backs our positive view on Apple. We continue expect greater “recurring” iPhone hardware revenue (growing installed base & stickiness of the App Store), which should drive more visibility into iPhone sales (20%+ of our FY10 iPhone shipments), as well as iPhone expansion driven by new partnerships (& end of exclusivities). Longer term, we believe a service to provide seamless access & mobility of digital content across all products may be the draw (halo) that drives additional future Apple product sales.”

Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan
“Overall, Q4:09 was a strong quarter for Apple, as the Mac is nearly becoming the de facto computer for the back-to-school season. Additionally, iPhone trends remain remarkably strong, with unit economics holding up at unheard of levels in the wireless industry.”

Yair Rainer, Oppenheimer
“As usual, Apple appears to be leaving plenty of room for upside surprises to both revenue and margins. On the revenue side, Apple should benefit from continued Mac momentum (particularly in Europe), higher recognized iPhone revenue, and some channel fill for both Mac and iPhone. Gross margin upside is likely to come from a higher proportion of recognized, high-margin iPhone revenue.”

Excluding charges related to stock options and other items, Palm (PALM) said net losses were $13.6 million, or 10 cents a share, for the recent period. Revenue slipped to $68 million from $366.9 million in the same period last year. Excluding revenue deferred from sales of the company’s new Pre handset, Palm said adjusted revenue would have been $360.7 million. Analysts had expected the company to turn in a loss of 24 cents a share on sales of $291 million.

Palm shipped a total of 823,000 smart phone units during the quarter, up 134 percent over the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009, but down 30 percent year over year. Smart phone sell-through for the quarter was 810,000 units, up 76 percent from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009 and down 21 percent year over year.

Speaking to analysts Thursday afternoon, Palm execs claimed that “the vast majority of new sales” for the quarter were generated by the Pre. But they declined to separate Pre sales from those of other handsets.

Skeptics will no doubt look at this and conclude that Palm didn’t meet expectations for Pre shipments of about 520,000. That, or the company is still selling a hell of a lot of Centros.

“We’re making significant progress with Palm’s transformation, and our culture of innovation is stronger than ever,” said Jon Rubinstein, chairman and chief executive officer. “We’re launching more great Palm webOS products with more carriers, and turning our sights toward growth.”

A few more Jon Rubinstein remarks from the earnings call:

On additional form factors:

I’m a big believer in families of products, and we’ll continue to evolve the line in the future and have a family of products for webOS.

On Carrier Customization:

We don’t really talk about our carrier agreements.

On Pre sales:

Sell-in and sell-through…the vast majority of new sales…relate to the Pre.

On the Pixi cannibalizing Pre sales:

The Pixi is a more cost-effective offering, so yes we expect some people might come into the store looking to buy a Pre and end up with a Pixi. But others might come in looking for a Pixi and end up with a Pre. As I said, we’re big believers in families of products. We’re happy to have two webOS products on the market.

On carrier diversification:

Sprint did a phenomenal launch with the Pre. They invested heavily in advertising….We’re looking forward to launching the Pixi with them as well. We don’t talk about our roadmap, but we’ll have more carriers and more products in the future.

On Motorola’s new Motoblur service:

We don’t really know much about it. To build really great consumer products, you have to own the OS and services. And the fact that we have webOS as our asset is really important.