So RIM’s BlackBerry World conference, which kicks off later today with a keynote address from CEO Thorsten Heins, is sure to be closely watched — both for the harbingers of a turnaround and the telltale cracks and missteps indicative of further deterioration. This is a very important event for the company, one of its last opportunities to restore the faith of the thousands of partners, clients and developers who attend it and rally them behind RIM’s forthcoming new operating system, BlackBerry 10.

As one developer told me, “This is RIM’s big chance to tell the BlackBerry 10 story. And if they tell it well and persuade us to support it, maybe they’ll be able to keep their head above water.”

But that’s no easy task. BlackBerry 10 is vastly different from RIM’s current OS, with which developers are already well acquainted. Developing for it requires learning a new set of application development tools, and having faith enough in the OS to launch them on unproven hardware.

Patience for the former and a prevalence for the latter may be in short supply, given the year RIM has had to date, and developers’ tendency to gravitate toward the larger, more well-established smartphone platforms on which they can actually make money.

So with today’s keynote, Heins faces both a key challenge and an opportunity: To convince developers that RIM is worth backing, and to begin charting that bold new course that he keeps mentioning.

If he pulls it off, maybe we’ll find that RIM really is capable of its long-promised turnaround.

And if not? Well, the future looks pretty grim, as this BlackBerry World scene-setter note from RBC Capital’s Mark Sue demonstrates:

“With iPhone dominating North America and Android rapidly spreading throughout the rest of the world, sell-through of legacy BlackBerry is facing significant headwinds. We believe even RIM’s core enterprise market is at risk to rising Bring Your Own Device pressures and switching to iPhone and Android. RIM is resorting to price cuts to boost sell-through, but that may not be enough to stem the tide, in our view.”

RBC Capital analyst Mark Sue asserted in a research note dated Sunday that he thinks the company has already sold 700,000 to 800,000 Droids, which should make it possible for the company to hit his estimate of 1 million Droids for the quarter. Sue notes that consumers like the phone’s screen and fast processor, but think it could “lose some weight.” Sue also notes that sales of the Cliq and Dext phones are “okay,” but “not great.”

Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron is more conservative: he thinks Droid sales are running slightly behind plan, and that sales for the quarter will likely be 750,000 units. He also says T-Mobile seems to have become “disengaged” from the Cliq, and hasn’t sold many.

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“A significant number of buyers–21 percent (3,100 respondents)–would be interested in purchasing a Mac tablet priced at $500-700,” RBC analyst Mike Abramsky wrote in a message to clients this morning. He noted as well that this is far above the nine percent who professed to be interested in the original iPhone in an April 2007 survey. The promising early interest illustrates the market opportunity for a Mac-based tablet, Abramsky said.

Assuming, of course, Apple (AAPL) plans to bring one to market.

Clearly, there’s quite a bit of enthusiasm around the device and its Motoblur feature, which connects a variety of social networking services to the phone’s core functions.

Said Mark Sue, an analyst at RBC Capital: “Our initial take is favorable, and it seems that Motorola is carving out a niche in the crowded smartphone market by focusing on socially minded demographics as opposed to enterprise users or pro-sumers. We think it’s a step in the right direction.”

C.L. King analyst Lawrence Harris was similarly impressed. “Our initial impression of the CLIQ is that it is not an iPhone killer, but that it will be a contender,” he said in a research note issued today. “…Initial reviews suggest that the CLIQ’s build quality is excellent with a solid keyboard, two important selling points.”

And Tavis McCourt at Morgan Keegan said the CLIQ is a credible device–assuming Motorola (MOT) can sell enough of them. “MOTOBLUR clearly differentiates a Motorola Android-based smartphone from others on the market and provides Motorola a fighting chance at successfully turning around Mobile Devices with Android-based devices,” he noted today.

“The CLIQ appears to be a solid touch screen smartphone,” McCourt added, “but we will defer from offering a more confident opinion until we get a chance to test one and note that we expect the upcoming Motorola Android-based device for Verizon Wireless may be somewhat more impressive. We believe Motorola ultimately needs to sell about 2 million smartphones/quarter in order to become sustainably profitable in its Mobile Devices business.”

McCourt’s conclusion: “Given Motorola’s global distribution, this does not require a ‘home run’ product, but only a series of ‘solid’ products. The CLIQ appears to be a good first step in this turnaround.”

Clearly, there’s quite a bit of enthusiasm around the device and its Motoblur feature, which connects a variety of social networking services to the phone’s core functions.

Said Mark Sue, an analyst at RBC Capital: “Our initial take is favorable, and it seems that Motorola is carving out a niche in the crowded smartphone market by focusing on socially minded demographics as opposed to enterprise users or pro-sumers. We think it’s a step in the right direction.”

C.L. King analyst Lawrence Harris was similarly impressed. “Our initial impression of the CLIQ is that it is not an iPhone killer, but that it will be a contender,” he said in a research note issued today. “…Initial reviews suggest that the CLIQ’s build quality is excellent with a solid keyboard, two important selling points.”

And Tavis McCourt at Morgan Keegan said the CLIQ is a credible device–assuming Motorola (MOT) can sell enough of them. “MOTOBLUR clearly differentiates a Motorola Android-based smartphone from others on the market and provides Motorola a fighting chance at successfully turning around Mobile Devices with Android-based devices,” he noted today.

“The CLIQ appears to be a solid touch screen smartphone,” McCourt added, “but we will defer from offering a more confident opinion until we get a chance to test one and note that we expect the upcoming Motorola Android-based device for Verizon Wireless may be somewhat more impressive. We believe Motorola ultimately needs to sell about 2 million smartphones/quarter in order to become sustainably profitable in its Mobile Devices business.”

McCourt’s conclusion: “Given Motorola’s global distribution, this does not require a ‘home run’ product, but only a series of ‘solid’ products. The CLIQ appears to be a good first step in this turnaround.”

Amazon.com (AMZN) could be responsible for close to a third of all U.S. e-commerce transactions, RBC Capital analyst Stephen Ju asserted in a research note this morning. Ju notes that Amazon’s reported revenues consist of a mix of gross revenues from its own businesses plus net third-party commissions. To date, he notes, Amazon has not given a breakdown of the two numbers, other than as a percentage of units shipped. The question, he says, is how much third-party gross merchandise value is flowing through Amazon’s platform–and what slice of all e-commerce Amazon is actually facilitating.

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Maybe… or at least, they seem to be getting worse at a decelerating rate.

RBC Capital’s Mark Sue this morning repeated his Outperform rating on the stock and lifted his price target to $16, from $12, asserting that the company’s operating margins in mobile device many have bottomed. He also contends the company will see some benefits in the first quarter from inventory restocking, lifting his unit forecast for the quarter to 90 million from 87 million. “It’s been the most volatile global handset quarter since we can remember, yet the shock to the system seems to be dissipating,” he writes. Sue still expects global units to be down 15 percent this year, but asserts that the rate of decline appears to be slowing.

Sue adds that “it’s bad out there, but not as bad as feared, implying the multiple [on NOK shares] may expand from trough levels.” He says the company is seeing “encouraging trends” in Asia, in particular in China and India, while Europe “seems to be stabilizing.”

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It’s also apparently raised Palm’s profile as an acquisition target. Says Abramsky, “Given Pre’s and webOS’s competitive advantages and the rising importance of the Smartphone market, we foresee Palm’s rising attractiveness as an acquisition candidate.” The companies most likely to consider it as such: RIM (RIMM), Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK), Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL).

Quite an endorsement–especially for a company that hasn’t yet launched the product capable of working the restorative magic Abramsky describes.

Palm shares are up well over two percent this morning at $8.07.

RBC Capital’s Mark Sue this morning cut his Q1 forecast for global handset unit demand to 230 million, from 248 million, which would mean a sequential drop of 25 percent. For the full year, Sue now expects handset units to drop 18 percent. “Despite some inventory clearing at carriers and distributors, magnified deterioration in developed markets and sharp declines in emerging markets means global handsets may contract more than dire predictions,” he writes in a research note.

Sue thinks that Nokia (NOK) “may feel the brunt of the weakness this quarter,” given that it will also likely lose some market share. He cut his unit forecast for Nokia for Q1 to 85 million units, down from 93 million; that would be off 25 percent from the 113 million the company reported in Q4.

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“Our current checks indicate that Adobe’s end markets of enterprises, knowledge workers, designers, OEM partners and developers remain under pressure worldwide,” he writes. “Customers remain reluctant to part with cash and engage in education programs to upgrade to the newly released CS4.” He adds that checks with distribution partners find “a tough business climate” in the company’s fiscal first quarter ending this month. He says that it looks like more customers will skip the new version of Creative Suite and wait for version 5, due in a year or so.

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Abramsky’s previous cautious view was based on worries over reduced margin visibility, execution issues and recession-related growth headwinds. But he notes that the stock has dropped 28 percent since it reported fiscal Q2 results. His new three-part thesis:

• Margin visibility is improving
• Execution is recovering
• Performance exceeding lowered expectations.

Abramsky notes that the company provided an unpleasant shock for investors late last year when it guided to a sharp drop in gross margins. But he says that with mix improving and costs coming down, hardware margins should stabilize. Meanwhile, he also says the company has addressed recent execution challenges, including product delays, quality issues and shortages.

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RBC Capital’s Stephen Ju this morning repeated his Outperform rating on the stock, but cut his price target to $70, from $73, and trimmed EPS estimates. For 2009, he now sees $1.88, down from $1.94. He writes that “channel checks indicate broad-based gross margin compression across the e-commerce landscape, with aggressive price promotions used to drive traffic.” And that includes Amazon. Ju believes Amazon employed price promotions and coupons in particular for “more highly trafficked, in-season, head-of-the-curve items.” He also cut his Q4 estimate to 50 cents, from 55 cents.

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While continuing to recommend the stock, analysts at both RBC Capital and Bernstein Research today trimmed both their earnings estimates and price targets for the Internet search giant. That follows similar moves by analysts at Stifel, Morgan Stanley, AmTech and Collins Stewart.

RBC Capital’s Ross Sandler maintains an Outperform rating, but today cut his price target to $500 from $600. For 2008, his EPS estimate is now $19.14, down from $19.45; for 2009 he now sees $21.24, down from $23.46. The move, he writes, is “based on the deteriorating macro environment.” (I bet you sure are surprised to hear that.) He says search is holding up better than other forms of online advertising, but that “no company is immune to cyclical factors.”

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RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky cut his rating on the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform; his price target on the shares is now $140, down from $200. He cut his FY 2008 EPS estimate to $5.26, from $5.28; for 2009 he goes to $5.75 from $6.07; for FY 2010 he’s now at $7.38, down from $8.03. Abramsky says his new more cautious stance reflects “a worsening consumer spending environment.” He says a recent survey RBC conducted with research firm ChangeWave found a drop in the number of consumers intending to buy Macs: 29 percent intend to buy Mac laptops in the next 90 days, down from 34 percent in August, while 26 percent intend to buy a Mac desktop, down from 30 percent. Abramsky says that is the biggest decline in those measures in 2.5 years.

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RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky raises that possibility in a research note this morning. Abramsky notes that in the company’s 10-K filed on Friday, Palm disclosed a Q4 backlog of $238 million, up from $185 million one year earlier, and $121 million two years earlier. He writes that past precedent finds Q1 revenues have been 1.6x-1.9x Q4 backlog. Use the lower number and you would get $413 million, or well above the current Street consensus of $324 million. Abramsky says that would imply a loss for the quarter of four cents a share, versus the Street’s estimate of a loss of 18 cents.

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Last week, of course, the stock was under pressure from speculation about the health of CEO Steve Jobs. Today, the focus is back on the iPhone 3G, which was introduced a week ago at the company’s Worldwide Developers Conference.

RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky wrote this morning that he expects “massive” shipments of iPhones in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter ending September. He expects the company to sell 5.1 million phones in the September quarter, and 6.5 million in the December quarter. Abramsky also says he expects rising Street iPhone estimates to boost investor sentiment.

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