AllThingsD » rebound

Econalypse Fin

John Paczkowski — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 13:45:55 +0000

“The technology downturn of 2008 and 2009 is unofficially over.”

This, according to research firm Forrester, which claims technology spending will roar back to life in 2010, ending the econalypse once and for all.

“While the Q3 2009 data for the U.S. and the global market showed continued declines in tech purchases (as we expected),” the company said in its report, U.S. and Global IT Market Outlook: Q4 2009, “we predict that the Q4 2009 data will show a small increase in buying activity, or at worst, just a small decline.”

Forrester (FORR) expects U.S. IT spending to grow by 6.6 percent in 2010 after falling 8.2 percent in 2009. Meanwhile, global IT spending, which plummeted 8.9 percent last year, will rise 8.1 percent in 2010 to more than $1.6 trillion.

Driving the recovery: Software, hardware and communications equipment. According to Forrester, worldwide spending on software is set to grow by 9.7 percent in the months ahead, spending on hardware and other computer equipment by 8.2 percent and spending on comm gear by 7.6 percent.

Said Forrester principal analyst Andrew Bartels: “All the pieces are in place for a 2010 tech spending rebound. In the U.S., the tech recovery will be much stronger than the overall economic recovery, with technology spending growing at more than twice the rate of gross domestic product this year.”

But this assumes there will be no further financial disaster in 2010. If this is not the case, then we have something else to look forward to.

“The most likely alternative to our forecast that the U.S. and global IT markets will recover in 2010 is a faltering tech market due to a double-dip recession that returns in 2010 after a brief two- to three-quarter economic recovery,” Forrester explains. “Should this happen, U.S. tech purchases would decline by 3% to 4% in 2010, with a second-half decline offsetting a first-half tech revival.”

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Is Media Spending Up? It Better Be.

Peter Kafka — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 18:00:14 +0000

Another “things are looking up, sort of, maybe” report from medialand: A survey of advertisers says that many of them intend to increase their spending in the coming months. Except for those who say they’re going to decrease spending.

Helpful, right? Check out this MediaPost piece if you want more on the survey, conducted by media-buying shop Round2 Communications.

The bigger picture: This week, as you’ll hear over and over again, is the one-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse. The BBC has both a radio drama and a made-for-TV movie commemorating/dramatizing the event.

Which means it’s the one-year anniversary of the economy’s collapse from recession to (short-lived) catastrophe. Which means this is the one-year anniversary of the collapse of the advertising business. Which means that any year-over-year results you see now had best show an increase because they’re going up against positively brutal comparisons from 12 months ago.

Remember: This ad drop was so bad that even Google (GOOG) flatlined for a bit.

So if and when you do see signs of a rebound, make sure you’re looking at them with some perspective: There’s just about nowhere to go but up. Right?

Global IT Market: Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me

John Paczkowski — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:40:57 +0000

First-quarter spending on information technology goods and services was worse than Forrester Research predicted at the beginning of the year. But it will grow no worse.

We’ve hit bottom. Finally.

In its latest “US and Global IT Market Outlook” report, Forrester (FORR) says information technology spending in 2009 will fall 10.6 percent in 2009. And while that’s far worse than the three percent decline the research outfit forecast at the beginning of the year, it’s also the nadir of this particular crisis, and we are at the beginning of a rebound that will gain momentum in 2010.

According to Forrester, anyway.

“While Q1 2009 saw a scary drop in purchases in the U.S. tech market, ironically that is good news for the long run and we expect to see a stronger rebound sooner,” Forrester analyst Andrew Bartels said in a statement. “The big drops are not precursors to further declines; rather, we think they are evidence of a temporary pause in U.S. tech purchases, which we expect to start recovering in Q4 as businesses realize that they overreacted in the first quarter.”

So after a year of gloom and doom, things are beginning to look up.