And if you don’t want to invest that much time, here’s the super-short version: Head to a pirate review site like Scenesource, look for any movie you want and then look in the comments for links to cloud-based storage lockers where you can grab a copy of the movie, for free.

You may have to try a couple of links, because they eventually get shut down, but it should still be very easy–and more comfortable for mainstream users than dealing with BitTorrent software, which has been the preferred piracy method for some time.

Greenfield’s larger point (registration required) is that the rise of Internet-connected TVs–look around this year’s Consumer Electronics Show and you’ll realize that the next set you buy will almost certainly have a Web connection, whether you want it or not–and cheap bandwidth is going to create a giant headache for big media.

Big media and technology companies can try to fight it with legal and mechanical tactics, or half-steps like UltraViolet, the “everybody but Apple” coalition. But the best long-term answer is to make media consumption incredibly cheap, and incredibly easy, so that it’s more convenient for mainstream users to get it legally than to go through the pirate sites.

That’s an incredibly hard thing to do, because it involves trading big, existing revenue streams for smaller ones down the line. But not doing it can be even more costly: Ask the music labels.

Evidence: Last night’s “VC Demo Day,” where investors paraded themselves, pageant-style, in front of a room full of would-be Twitters at AOL’s New York headquarters. The goal: To convince the assembled digerati that they were worthy of writing their fledgling company a check.

Even mighty Union Square Ventures, which lands deals like Twitter, Zynga and Foursquare, sent partner Brad Burnham out to explain why they’d like the chance to do more.

Clever idea for a networking event, and a smart inversion of start-up pitchfests like Y Combinator’s Demo Days.

And if it felt slightly weird to see investors clamoring to spend money less than two years after the economy fell into a dark hole, no one was letting on.

Most entertaining pitch? No contest: That would be GreenHill SAVP’s Brian Hirsch, who put together this video featuring some of his portfolio companies (listed below the clip). Make sure you get at least a minute into this one.

In order of appearance:
Jed Alpert–founder, Mobile Commons
Dan Drechsel–CEO, FTRANS
Len Ostroff–CEO, Three Stage Media
Nick Pahade–CEO, TRAFFIQ
Eric Frank–founder and president, Flat World Knowledge (cartoon)
Apar Kothari–founder/CEO, MyNines
Roshan Bangera–co-founder, Pontiflex

The Pali Capital researcher has rethought his prediction for Viacom’s 2010 U.S. ad sales and now says they’ll drop by three percent. He previously estimated an increase of two percent.

His logic is straightforward: The cable network conglomerate (MTV, VH1, Comedy Central, etc.) has had a hard time hanging onto viewers, and advertisers are following suit. Greenfield:

The risk to our estimates has increased substantially… particularly with Viacom’s ratings remaining mostly down year-over-year during Q3 qtr-to-date… If Viacom is able to turn its ratings positive over the next couple of quarters and the economic rebound begins to meaningfully impact cable network industry ad spending, Viacom could conceivably grow ad revs in calendar 2010 (as we had been forecasting), however, that feels aggressive.

In a research note this morning, Greenfield asserts that, with just over a year to go on the News Corp. (NWS) unit’s search advertising deal with Google (GOOG), “it appears as though Google simply does not care about social search.” He contends it is difficult to imagine Google paying anywhere near what they were previously shelling out to MySpace, “especially as the inherent functionality of social networks is diminishing the importance of search.” The current deal expires in June 2010.

Greenfield estimates that MySpace will get about $300 million in revenue from Google in both the June 2009 fiscal year and in FY 2010, or about 35 percent of revenues in each year. He says there could be some competition for a new deal from Yahoo (YHOO), AOL (TWX) and MSN (MSFT), but he nonetheless sees a 50 percent drop in search fees. He also notes that Fox Interactive Media, the NWS unit that includes MySpace, is seeing costs increase even as revenues shrink.

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In a research note earlier today, Pali Research analyst Richard Greenfield noted that the combination of the declining value of National’s public holdings and “unfriendly credit markets” are going to force Redstone to take action. Greenfield thinks his best move would be to put Viacom (VIA) up for sale, but that Redstone isn’t likely to allow that.

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Pali Research analyst Richard Greenfield thinks Viacom Chairman Sumner Redstone ought to consider that question carefully. In a research piece this morning, Greenfield recalls that in July 2006 he wrote a report entitled “Dear Mr. Redstone: Take Viacom Private.” Since that time, he says, Viacom has installed a new CEO and CFO, topped EPS expectations in 2006 and 2007, showed improving cable ratings and bought back $3.3 billion of stock, or about 11% of the shares outstanding. But in that period, the stock has dropped 2%, cutting its one-year forward EPS multiple to 10.6X from 14.4X.

Greenfield thinks that “given increasingly broad investor distaste for Viacom’s management team and the lack of respect and confidence in the company’s earnings prospects,” Redstone should “seriously revisit our go-private analysis.”

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It was a fancy gold-leaf setting for the gathering of Silicon Valley and European digital media execs, investors and entrepreneurs, a kickoff to two days of discussion about the state of tech and media in this glam town on the Riviera.

Why am I here? (No, not a boondoggle!)

Actually, to learn more about the most interesting European players, as Walt Mossberg and I consider whether to take our successful D: All Things Digital conference to Dublin next fall.

On my way to the dinner, I ran smack into Facebook bigwig Owen Van Natta and PR head Brandee Barker in front of the conference hotel. They had just flown in, as Van Natta is being interviewed here.

Though they looked horrified to see me as their first greeter, the pair were too exhausted to flee screaming from BoomTown’s usual stalking–which has now gone international–and went off for some much-needed sleep after a busy few weeks of Microsoft-shaking-down and social-ads-launching.

Nonetheless, even without them, Facebook and social networking were Topic A at the dinner among the attendees.

Tomorrow: Barry Diller on why he sliced and diced his Net assets and more.

Until then, here’s some cogent thoughts from four attendees–ubiquitous Israeli entrepreneur Yossi Vardi, very sharp Richard Greenfield of Pali Capital, friendly Netvibes CEO Tariq Krim and charming FON founder Martin Varsavsky–in a video: