Steve Ballmer is delivering his annual state-of-Microsoft address at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas tonight–his second since assuming the duties of former CEO Bill Gates.

If anything like last year’s, Ballmer’s address will offer a broad overview of Microsoft’s (MSFT) consumer strategy for the year, touching on everything from the company’s hardware-software ecosystem to its home entertainment offerings.

Likely to figure prominently in tonight’s address: Windows 7 and the new touch-enabled PC form factors it has evidently inspired; Bing; and Natal, Microsoft’s controller-less game control system, which will launch in time for the 2010 holidays.

• The keynote begins with, what else, some introductory remarks from Consumer Electronics Association President Gary Shapiro: “Happy New Year and welcome to 2010 CES, the World Cup of innovation. The past year has been a challenge. The global recession has affected all companies. Fortunately, signs are pointing upward, and I believe CES will be remembered as a turning point.”

  Let’s hope so.

• Shapiro welcomes Steve Ballmer to the stage, and the Microsoft chief begins by noting that 2009, in case you hadn’t noticed, was a year of profound economic turbulence. But innovation persisted. And with that, he rolls a first video designed to demonstrate his point. It features “one random guy’s” experiences with technology this past year, namely Seth Meyers of “Saturday Night Live.” Seth talks to his grandmother on a Web cam. He plays videogames with a kid and loses. “Before texting existed, I never sent the wrong person a letter telling them they’re a jackass. Thanks, technology….Before Twitter, if I knew what someone’s cat was thinking, I would have had to be an idiot.”

• Ballmer: “We’re going to focus on three things tonight. The [first is the] increasing importance of the small screen, the ever-evolving PC and the future of TV. The second is the cloud. Third is natural user interface–NUI technology. The last few decades have been absolutely stunning in the changes they’ve brought.”

• And here’s the sound byte of the evening: “We Bing. And we Bing. And we Bing Bing Bing. At least in my world.” Ballmer says 2009 is a year in which the company has made incredible progress with Bing. “We added 11 million new users….We redefined what search should do for users–we work to understand user intent and anticipate what users are really looking for. We know we’re at the beginning of a long journey, but we think we’re off to a good start.”

  There’s some news about Bing today, a distribution deal that makes it the default search engine on HP PCs in 32 countries.

• Also figuring prominently in 2009: Xbox. Microsoft first launched it at CES in 2001. Today, there are over 39 million Xbox 360s around the world. And more than 500 million games. The console has generated $20 billion in total game revenue.

• Ballmer is moving on to the mobile space now. Windows Phone–technically Windows Mobile 6.5, a necessary stopgap on the path to 7.0–which debuted last fall in a nimbus of disappointment. Ballmer notes that Microsoft is announcing a new Windows Phone partnership today with T-Mobile, which is bringing HTC’s HD2 phone to the U.S. He says little about Windows Mobile 7, Microsoft’s “modern” mobile operating system, which at last check was scheduled to arrive at market sometime in late 2010.

• Ballmer is talking up Windows 7 now. PC sales jumped 50 percent the week the OS debuted, he says. And according to research outfit NPD, sales of Windows PCs grew 50 percent over the 2009 holidays and retailers sold 63 percent more PCs than they did this time last year. Gartner (IT) now sees three percent PC unit growth in 2009–nearly 300 million PCs shipped in 2009. For 2010, Gartner sees a jump of more than 12 percent.

  “Windows 7 is by far the fastest-selling OS in history,” says Ballmer. “Clearly, consumers are saying there’s never been a better time to be a Windows 7 PC….Windows 7 is a rising tide that’s lifting all boats in the PC business.”

• Ballmer calls Ryan Asdourian, senior product manager for Windows, to the stage. “We’re going to see some of Ryan’s favorite hardware and software,” he says. Among them the Sony (SNE) Vaio L–an all-in-one built for high-definition entertainment–and the Asus NX90, a slick-looking laptop designed with help from legendary audio firm Bang & Olufsen.

  “Being in Vegas, you’ve got to look sexy,” says Asdourian. Ballmer: “Good thing we brought some PCs.”

• Next, some software demos–Ray Kurzweil’s Blio Ereader App?, then a new Skydrive collaboration in Windows Live. Ballmer: “Developers baby! Developers! I love the people who’ve built this stuff.”

• Ballmer moves on to Windows Media Center and Mediaroom 2.0, which will now deliver live and on-demand TV through set-top boxes, PCs, and Windows Mobile devices like the HD2. It is coming to AT&T’s (T) U-verse. Streaming video on the HD2 looks pretty slick.

• “The world of entertainment and content will come in different forms and flavors. But no matter what the source, Windows PCs will offer the greatest entertainment experiences in the world,” says Ballmer. And with that, he shows offs some new slate PCs. Sadly, the Courier–the dual-screen multitouch device that many had been hoping to see–is not among them, as BoomTown reported earlier today. There are, however, some cool-looking offerings from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Archos.

• Ballmer rolls another Seth Myers video, “Milestones in Technology.” Not funny. Yeah, I don’t really miss “Saturday Night Live” at all anymore.

• Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft’s Entertainment & Devices division, takes the stage. “Computer science is the only science bounded solely by our imaginations,” he says, referring to Xbox. “2010 is going to be a landmark year for Xbox customers. We’ll be offering the best line of Xbox 360 games.” Examples: Mass Effect 2 and Splinter Cell Conviction. Also an episodic “psychological action thriller” called Alan Wake. “Imagine ‘Lost’ written by Stephen King, filmed by David Lynch,” implores Bach.

• Bach: “What ‘Star Wars’ is to film, what Harry Potter is to fantasy books, Halo is to videogames.” And with that, he rolls some video of Halo Reach that I can’t see because I’m watching the event remotely. The game is coming in the fall of 2010, but will be available as a multiplayer beta on Xbox Live this spring.

• Bach announces Game Room for Xbox Live! More precisely, a vintage gaming service that offers 30 classics from Atari, Intellivision, etc. The company plans to add over 1,000 games to Game Room over the next three years.

• And here comes the pitch for Project Natal: “We’re at an exciting inflection point in tech, where we can create an experience that is more intuitive. With Natal we’re freeing you from the last barrier, the game controller.” Bach rolls a video of the folks behind the Xbox’s new natural user interface, or NUI, which is due out later this year. “Project Natal will be available this holiday 2010….It will work with your existing Xbox 360.”

• “When I said 2010 was going to be a big year for Xbox 360, I was lying: 2010 is going to be the biggest year in Xbox history!”

• Bach wraps things up with some big-picture remarks and–well, I guess that’s it. He leaves the stage and the house lights come back up.

While Microsoft COO Kevin Turner did a kind of modified cheerleading act at Microsoft’s annual Financial Analyst Meeting, Entertainment and Devices President Robbie Bach played the teenage boy and Chief Research and Strategy Officer Craig Mundie the voice from the future.

During his presentation at the event at the Microsoft (MSFT) HQ in Redmond, Wash.–a series of presentations for Wall Street analysts and the media–Bach showed off the Xbox’s new Project Natal motion-sensing technology, which lets you play games and more without a controller.

Bach spazzed out nicely playing a game called Ricochet, with a storm of virtual red balls coming at him, although I was slightly worried the exertion might cause him to collapse on stage.

Turner was on before Bach, pretty much doing cleanup after CEO Steve Ballmer’s presentation, talking up all of Microsoft’s various businesses, while talking down its competitors’.

Said Turner, whose mantra was building market share for Microsoft: “Strong innovation, strong innovation investment, as well as strong operational excellence that we’re driving to compete and grow our market share.”

Strong, got it? (Frankly, I know companies always put their best foot forward at events like this–but after Ballmer’s own He-Man speech, BoomTown is a little worried that Scary Microsoft could be making a comeback, after a few post-antitrust years of Kinder-Gentler Microsoft.)

Bach, given his job, was a lot more entertaining and had more to show off, although he could not be as positive about the software giant’s mobile experience, given the juggernaut of the iPhone from Apple (AAPL).

“First of all, in Windows Mobile, as Steve pointed out, we had a challenging year from a share perspective,” said Bach. “Much tougher competition in the U.S. and certainly there is plenty of competition in this space.”

No kidding!

Natal is, of course, the pretty one for Bach’s division.

“It is about technology innovation and experience innovation. I think it will lead to a bigger and better business as well,” said Bach. “It is certainly an opportunity for us to build something new.”

Mundie also showed a lot of new futuristic stuff, which borrowed from the Natal technology, including a demo of a gesture-rich “office of the future” experience.

Said Mundie: “But as far as Microsoft, one of the greatest opportunities going forward is to realize there will be a successor to the desktop. It is the room. It is the fixed computing environment. The question is what can you do with computing when you have a much more robust man-machine interaction model and you don’t have to fold it in half and move it and run it on a battery.”

In the midst of it, though, he chit-chatted with a very scary “digital assistant” named DAG (I think it must stand for Digital Assistant Golem) on the screen, whose voice freaked me out in the exact way HAL from “2001: A Space Odyssey” always does.

After helping Mundie with a bunch of stuff, I am guessing DAG went off into the computer to work on a secret plan to kill off the human race.

Well, it was nice being here for this long on our little blue planet, Earth!

So, while we wait for DAG to destroy us, here’s the video demoing Natal that Bach showed to the audience, which is not new, but still pretty cool:

The fun never stops at Microsoft, it seems.

Well, not fun–more like a long march of khaki-clad Softies.

They will be on display bright and early this morning at the company’s annual Financial Analyst Meeting, a cavalcade of top execs at the tech giant blabbing away.

BoomTown will be there covering it in person, natch!

The Microsoft management smorgasbord includes:

CEO Steve Ballmer, COO Kevin Turner, Entertainment and Devices President Robbie Bach, Online Services President Qi Lu, Microsoft Business President Stephen Elop, Servers and Tools President Bob Muglia, Chief Research and Strategy Officer Craig Mundie, Chief Software Architect Ray Ozzie and CFO Chris Liddell.

I am betting that most of the focus at the gathering, which is being held at the worldwide HQ of Microsoft (MSFT) in Redmond, Wash., will likely be on two major events over the last week–its billion-dollar revenue miss in its fourth quarter and its just-born search and online advertising deal with Yahoo (YHOO).

The former, of course, was bad news for Microsoft, as it continues to signal weakness in its core operating system software and server businesses, due to lower demand for personal computers in the midst of the econalypse.

The latter was good news, of course, since Microsoft seemed to score a coup in nabbing the search technology business from Yahoo with no big upfront payments.

I have a lot of questions about both these issues, as will the crowd of reporters and Wall Street sharpies at the FAM, which is what they call the meeting here.

There could even be be plenty of answers, especially given that the entire leadership of Microsoft will be there.

Here is a link to a live Webcast of the FAM event, if you want to join the party too.

Yesterday, shares of Netflix got their semiregular rocket boost–with its stock up more than five percent to close at just over $42–from rumors that Amazon was interested in buying Netflix.

Oh, it’s a seemingly dreamy match–the top online retailer snapping up the upstart U.S. mail-order DVD movie and television show service.

But the speculation completely ignored the giant price needed to buy the Silicon Valley-based Netflix (NFLX)–well above its current $2.43 billion market cap, to be sure–which would be a big chunk of Amazon’s $35 billion valuation.

And it also leaves out the nearly impossible tax problem Amazon (AMZN) would acquire if it ever bought Netflix, given that Netflix has many U.S. distribution locations for its subscription rental business. Amazon does not like paying state taxes and avoids them carefully.

Instead, those interested in seeing the independent company in the embrace of a larger one might want to consider a more suitable and very interested candidate: Microsoft.

Neither Microsoft (MSFT) nor Netflix will comment about such a hookup.

But several sources close to Microsoft told BoomTown that that the partnership between Netflix and Xbox Live to allow users to watch movies and TV episodes on the Xbox 360 device–struck exactly one year ago today–is going like gangbusters, with one saying it was “en fuego.”

Very loosely translated: On fire.

So much so, several sources said, that Robbie Bach–who is president of Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices division, which includes the Xbox business–has been meeting with Netflix CEO and co-founder Reed Hastings (pictured) in recent weeks about what else the pair can do together to expand its current partnership.

The deal already in place between them is a hit, according to sources at both companies.

It gave Netflix access to 12 million Xbox members and handed Microsoft what has turned out to be a very popular application and an unusually successful joint effort.

While an acquisition would be a much bigger move, some at the software giant think it would necessarily be such a bad one for Microsoft, which has long been seeking to forge better ties in the entertainment arena.

Many of Microsoft’s major Hollywood forays over the years have been duds. So, stronger ties with Netflix–even a more robust partnership, at the very least–would give it a more definitive video strategy most think it lacks.

Its archrival, Google (GOOG), has been trying–with similarly lackluster impact–to accomplish the same results via its pricey and money-losing YouTube unit.

But Netflix–which has an office in Beverly Hills, as well as Los Gatos, Calif.–has much better relationships with the industry there, mostly because it has become such a big buyer of DVDs as it has grown its business (see charts below of subscriber and revenue growth; click on them to make them larger).

In addition, it has added more subscribers than ever in the last year and is solidly profitable, mostly due to sending consumers all those DVDs in little red envelopes.

And while a lot of execs at Hollywood studios that Netflix does business with have been wary–and told me so in no uncertain terms on my recent visit to Los Angeles–about its entry into the digital video delivery business, they have also been thrilled with the checks that Netflix has been writing them since it was founded more than a decade ago.

But, it is that main DVD business that Hastings, in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal recently, has said is “doomed.”

Noted the article:

“As soon as four years from now, [Hastings] predicts, the business that generates most of Netflix’s revenue today will begin to decline, as DVDs delivered by mail steadily lose ground to movies sent straight over the Internet. So Mr. Hastings, who co-founded the company, is quickly trying to shift Netflix’s business–seeking to make more videos available online and cutting deals with electronics makers so consumers can play those movies on television sets.”

With Internet video still in its infancy–and barely in gestation in terms of any viable business model–Netflix might indeed need help, especially since Hollywood has been slow to give it rights to more movies for online distribution.

That will be increasingly troublesome, given that digital delivery is the way consumers are headed. According to the Journal story, over 20 percent of Netflix members now use the streaming service.

But it only has about 12,000 titles–mostly older films–licensed on its online service, compared to 100,000 DVD rental titles.

That’s because, for now, much more powerful pay channels usually win out over Netflix in these online video distribution wars, which also include Amazon and Apple (AAPL), along with many others.

Thus, even with a strong and unusually long-term executive bench, the close-knit Netflix will still be facing a major battle in moving in a direction it must head in sooner than later

Such an epic journey could be easier for Netflix with a powerful ally like Microsoft.

One more interesting link would make such a relationship even smoother: Hastings is also on the board of Microsoft, having joined in 2007.

So, the savvy and innovative entrepreneur–well-known for his close-to-the-vest dealmaking and eager to not miss a key turn for his company–might very well decide to keep friends very close.

Microsoft Promotes Steven Sinofsky to President, Windows Division
Tami Reller to lead Windows Marketing and Finance

REDMOND, Wash. — July 8, 2009 — Microsoft Corp. today promoted Steven Sinofsky to president of the Windows Division. Sinofsky, a 20-year Microsoft veteran, most recently led the Windows and Windows Live Engineering Group, contributing to the Oct. 22 availability of Windows 7.

As president, Sinofsky assumes responsibility for the Windows business including both the engineering and marketing functions for Windows, Windows Live and Internet Explorer.

“Steven Sinofsky has demonstrated the ability to lead large teams that deliver great products. The work he and the team have done in getting ready to ship Windows 7 really defines how to develop and ship world-class software,” said Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. “He is a perfect fit to lead the Windows group.”

Sinofsky began his career at Microsoft in 1989 in engineering and has held multiple positions on Microsoft product teams. His full biography can be found here.

In addition, Tami Reller, currently chief financial officer (CFO) for the Windows Division, will take on the additional responsibility for marketing. Bill Veghte will be moving to a new leadership role in the company to be announced later this year. The transition between Reller and Veghte is timed to take place in late July when Windows 7 reaches the release to manufacturing (RTM) milestone.

Reller joined Microsoft in 2001 as part of the acquisition of Great Plains Software Inc. Reller was the CFO of Great Plains at the time of acquisition and had previously served in a number of senior marketing, sales and general management roles. Since joining Microsoft, she has held a variety of leadership positions including corporate vice president of marketing for Microsoft Business Solutions, where she was responsible for the launch of the Microsoft Dynamics brand. She will report to Sinofsky and will retain her responsibilities as CFO.

“In addition to her in-depth knowledge of the Windows business, I’m excited that Tami will bring to Windows her experience in marketing and finance, along with a history of fostering a strong and profitable partner ecosystem in business software,” Sinofsky said.

Jon DeVaan will continue in his role as senior vice president, reporting to Sinofsky. DeVaan managed the engineering team responsible for creating the core components of both Windows 7 and Windows Server 2008 R2.

And now, the all-hands memo from Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer:

Windows is one of the franchise brands and products for Microsoft. Each new version of Windows is a visible and significant milestone for the company. We will soon finish Windows 7 and hand it off to our partners for general availability on October 22nd.

With this transition, we want to ensure we are setting up for the next release and continue the market leadership and momentum that we have with Windows today. Accordingly, I am pleased to announce today that Steven Sinofsky will be promoted to President of the Windows Division. Windows 7 is receiving terrific feedback from customers, partners, analysts alike, and the entire Windows team has done a great job.

With this promotion, Steven assumes responsibility for the Windows business including both the engineering and marketing functions for Windows, Windows Live and Internet Explorer. Jon DeVaan will continue in his role as senior vice president, reporting to Steven. In this role, Jon will continue to manage the engineering team responsible for creating the core components of both Windows 7 and Windows Server 2008 R2 and is responsible for the PC ecosystem engagement and technical readiness.

We are also pleased to announce today that Tami Reller, currently CFO for the Windows Division, will take on the additional responsibility of marketing for the Windows Division. Tami brings a strong background in delivering successful brands to market, most recently with the introduction of Dynamics in her previous role as marketing vice president for MBS. Tami takes over the marketing responsibility from Bill Veghte who will take a new leadership role in the company to be announced later this year. Bill and Tami will work closely together through this month to ensure we deliver on the momentum currently building for the launch of Windows 7.

Under Bill’s leadership, the team has re-energized our approach to marketing and selling Windows and the PC, built stronger relationships with our partners and has laid the right plans for delivering Windows 7 into the market. In particular, the “I’m a PC” campaign has really helped energize the brand and create emotional connections between our product and our customers. Bill has a long track record of success at Microsoft in a variety of capacities and we look forward to his continued contributions.

As we start the new fiscal year, we do so with a full slate of great products, healthy businesses and strong leadership. We would like to recognize Steven, Bill and Jon for their leadership of Windows and congratulate Tami on her new expanded role.

Steve

Why?

“It completes the picture for us in terms of making the transition from just being on the business side of things to being on the consumer side of things,” said Robbie Bach, Microsoft’s president of entertainment and devices.

Seems Microsoft really is serious about the consumer cellphone business after all. But what’s it going to do with Danger? Said Jupiter analyst Michael Gartenberg, “The SideKick had strong appeal as the anti-BlackBerry for younger audiences and it will be really interesting to see how MSFT integrates the technology, business model and overall device cachet to a culture more at home selling to enterprise CIOs than it is selling to rock stars.”

Could this be the beginning of a Zune-based cellphone ?

7:40 p.m. A few more moments of guitar wankery from Slash and … well, I guess that’s it. Bach, not Gates, ends the keynote. “I’ll see you again next year,” he says as Gates waves briefly and leaves the stage. Must be rushing off to that billion-dollar-a-hand poker game at Caesars … And the lights go up. That is it. Quite a disappointment. Take away the celebrity appearances and what’s left is a well-rehearsed series of anticlimaxes and rehashes of demos past. A pity, really.
7:38 p.m.: Gates: She’s pretty good. But I’ve got my own ringer here … (Pleeeeease let it be Wayne Newton)
Nope. It’s Carrot Top. Kidding … It’s Slash it’s from Guns n’ Roses playing “Welcome to the Jungle” for real. He doesn’t miss a note either. Dry ice smoke and flashing lights.
7:36 p.m.: Bach challenges Gates to a Guitar Hero 3 match. Bach invites Guitar Hero champion Kelly Clarkson to play against Gates. … She plays Guns n’ Roses’ “Welcome to the Jungle” and doesn’t miss a note.
7:35 p.m.: Gates using the device to navigate video archives of keynotes past. Microsoft’s version of iTunes’ ‘Cover Flow.’ Messy.
7:33 p.m.: Gates uses the device to scan a photo of the Vegas skyline behind him. Clicks on the Venetian. The screen displays information for his keynote address. Pops another note indicating Ballmer’s playing nickel slots at another casino. Laughter.
7:31 p.m.: Bach brings Gates back onstage to discuss the future. … Gates takes the stage again with a handheld video recognition device. He points it at Bach and clicks. It recognizes Bach, displays his name onscreen, along with a note saying he owes Gates money.
7:29 p.m.: Fellow presenter uses Tellme to search out a movie theater, browse movie listings, purchase tickets for a movie and then send them to a friend. Pretty slick, especially given the size of the mobile advertising market.
7:27 p.m.: On to Windows Mobile and Microsoft’s Tellme service.
7:26 p.m.: Bach and fellow presenter now demoing “Sync”–an in-car voice-command technology that enables Zune owners to sync their Zunes to their car stereos and then navigate their music libraries with voice commands.
7:24 p.m.: Bach talks about Zune Social as a service that drives music transactions from discovery to purchase. Find a song you like on a friend’s page, click on it and purchase from Zune Marketplace. Again, haven’t we heard all this before?
7:22 p.m.: Listening habits are tracked via “cards.” Bands can create their own Zune Social pages as well. Essentially, MySpace for music.
7:20 p.m.: Zune Social apparently tracks your listening habits in real-time. It’s all about “people-powered music discovery.”
7:18 p.m.: Bach talking up the Zune now. … Demoing Zune Social.
7:17 p.m.: British Telecom is to begin selling Xbox 360s as Media-Room based set-top boxes. Price of relocation to UK not included with activation fee …
7:15 p.m.: In addition to this, MGM will also be adding its film library to Xbox Live. End result: Twice as many hours of on-demand programming as any cable provider out there.
7:14 p.m.: ABC and Disney will be bringing their programming to Xbox Live.
7:13 p.m.: Gates brings Robbie Bach onstage to talk about Xbox 360.
7:11 p.m.: Using Microsoft Silverlight technology, NBC and MSN will put some 3,000 hours of high-definition footage of the Beijing Olympics online. Wow: 3,000 hours of video. What a massive effort. First of its kind.
7:10 p.m.: Gates commenting on broadcast television: “It simply isn’t as fulfilling an experience as online video.”
Here comes another video segment. … Bob Costas pitching.
7:09 p.m.: Moving on to Silverlight. Gates says NBC has chosen Microsoft as its exclusive online video partner for the 2008 Olympics.
7:08 p.m.: He finishes up the design, lays his phone down on the screen and it automatically emails his design to friends for review.
7:07 p.m.: Gates, thankfully, back onstage for another demo. Wait, what’s this. Another Surface demo?! Didn’t we see this last year? Yes, we did–but given by Steve Ballmer, not Gates. Gates using Microsoft’s Surface multitouch computer to demo a snowboard-design service.
7:05 p.m.: The big achievement being touted here seems to be the connection between these services and the single log-on. As Dan Aykroyd might say: Isn’t that AMAZING?
7:04 p.m.: Windows Live Photo Gallery … in browser photo editing, sharing (via email or Flickr) and exporting to blog. Bor-ing. They would have been better off playing the farewell video again. That ‘Bib Pimpin’ segment was comedy gold.
7:02 p.m.: First up: Windows Live Calendar now with … wait for it … multiple calendar overlays (YAY! sigh…)
But wait, there’s more … Windows Live Events, an invitation/event organizing service. They really should have called it Windows Live eVites …)
7 p.m.: Gates brings Mika Krammer, a director of product management for Windows, onstage to demo some new features of Windows Live.
6:59 p.m.: And here comes the product line-up overview: Windows Vista, Windows Live, Windows Mobile ….
6:58 p.m.: A key building block of the second digital decade, the centerpiece building block will be. … (drum roll, please) … Microsoft Windows!
6:56 p.m.: “Devices will know our context and location,” Gates continues. There will be new modes of interaction and natural interfaces. “We’re very interested in simpler ways of navigating our technology.” If he were going to announce Microsoft Bob 2.0, now would be the perfect time to do it. Nope. Ah, well. “The software industry will build these new modes of interaction–touch, voice, gesture–into the software.”
6:55 p.m.: And now for a few predictions. “In the future Microsoft products and services will run on the desktop and in the cloud,” he says. Would that be the cloud with all the Google AdWords all over it? “And 3-D environments will exist for Web experiences, high-quality video and audio in a pervasive way.” Make way for Third Life …
“Devices and services will be connected.” As an example, Gates talks about photos automatically being uploaded to digital-memory application.
6:54 p.m.: Gates back onstage discussing the coming transition in leadership at Microsoft when he will step down from his day-to-day role as the company’s chairman. He says Microsoft is aligned well for success with Steve Ballmer, Ray Ozzie and others.
Moving on … “The second digital decade heralds the following: high definition experience is everywhere.”
6:52 p.m.: Video ends to thunderous applause. UPDATE: Here’s the video:

6:50 p.m.: Footage of Gates cleaning out desk, taking box of office supplies to his Ford Focus. Ford Focus–now that’s funny.
Cut to Peter Jennings: “Let’s face it, all of us here at NBC News will miss reporting on this brilliant, powerful, sexy man who just doesn’t like to pay more than $7 on a haircut.”
6:49 p.m.: Gates calls Jon Stewart and asks about a co-anchor job. Stewart turns him down.
Gates calls Hillary Clinton. She turns him down as a running mate, so he calls Obama:
Gates: It’s Bill.
Obama: Bill Shatner?
Gates: No, Bill!
Obama: Bill Clinton?
6:48 p.m.: Steven Spielberg reviews Gates’s audition reel (“X-Men” and “Matrix” re-enactments; Gates in Wolverine get-up, Gates and Ballmer in Matrix-style black trench coats) and denies him a part in his next film.
6:47 p.m.: Footage of Gates calling Bono in the middle of a U2 concert. Gates plays guitar riff on “Guitar Hero” for Bono. Bono tells him there’s no place for him in U2. Which is OK, I’m sure, since there’s certainly no place for Bono at Microsoft.
6:46 p.m.: My God … Gates in recording studio with Jay-Z… Holy … Gates singing “Big Pimpin’.” Wild laughter and applause. “It was great,” Jay-Z tells Gates, before turning to the camera and muttering, “not so much.”
6:45 p.m.: Various Microsoft execs talking about Gates. Clip of Gates in office playing with action figures: “Never doubt the power of software.” Laughter.
Quickly followed by Gates in gym working out with Matthew McConaughey, who doesn’t really strike you as a Windows user.
6:44 p.m.: “This is my last keynote. Come July, it will be the first time I won’t be working at Microsoft since I was 17.” And here comes the inevitable farewell video ….
6:42 p.m.: He mentions the progression of digital entertainment–music, movies, photos. The trend is clear: all media and entertainment will be software driven in the second digital decade. And in the third, it will all be driven by Microsoft Windows! Muahahahahaha. Kidding … Moving on … “I’ll soon step down as chairman.”
6:40 p.m.: Gates finally takes the stage. He recalls his first keynote in 1994, a time when Windows ’95 was first coming together. “It was the beginning of the first digital decade.” Ah yes, “The Digital Decade.”
6:39 p.m.: Here comes another silly video, this one set to “Believe in Magic,” featuring people from all walks of life extraordinarily happy to be using Microsoft products. They look like they’re all on Ecstasy. And it’s probably safe to say that nobody has ever looked like that while using a Microsoft product.
6:35 p.m.: Shapiro says Gates has given 10 CES keynotes, eight consecutively. He’s spoken at CES 11 times. Guess he must be the Guinness World Record holder. How ’bout that, huh?
6:33 p.m.: And here comes Gates. Wait–that’s not Gates. It’s Consumer Electronics Association President Gary Shapiro. OH RAPTURE! Disappointed applause. “In my opinion these are the best four days of the year,” says Shapiro. (Tell that to Steve Jobs next week.)
6:30 p.m.: Silly CES promo video… Correction: advertisement.
6:29 p.m.: Getting started right on time. Guess Jim Allchin and the Vista development team didn’t do Gates’s makeup this time around. Lights dim….
6:25 p.m.: In a few moments, Bill Gates, the Frank Sinatra of the Dat(a) Pack (Steve Jobs presumably in the Dean Martin role), will deliver his 11th Consumer Electronics Show keynote–and by many projections his last.
6:00 p.m.: The ballroom of the Venetian Resort Hotel Casino is pretty much packed, and like most things in Las Vegas it’s BIG. But it has to be the worst pre-keynote music EVER: from 1982 video game soundtrack to passed-out-after-the-rave techno to European disco to new wave. Really covering all the genres. At this rate, Bill Gates could take the stage to the theme from “The Dukes of Hazzard” or the “Annie” soundtrack.

7:40 p.m. A few more moments of guitar wankery from Slash and … well, I guess that’s it. Bach, not Gates, ends the keynote. “I’ll see you again next year,” he says as Gates waves briefly and leaves the stage. Must be rushing off to that billion-dollar-a-hand poker game at Caesars … And the lights go up. That is it. Quite a disappointment. Take away the celebrity appearances and what’s left is a well-rehearsed series of anticlimaxes and rehashes of demos past. A pity, really.
7:38 p.m.: Gates: She’s pretty good. But I’ve got my own ringer here … (Pleeeeease let it be Wayne Newton)
Nope. It’s Carrot Top. Kidding … It’s Slash it’s from Guns n’ Roses playing “Welcome to the Jungle” for real. He doesn’t miss a note either. Dry ice smoke and flashing lights.
7:36 p.m.: Bach challenges Gates to a Guitar Hero 3 match. Bach invites Guitar Hero champion Kelly Clarkson to play against Gates. … She plays Guns n’ Roses’ “Welcome to the Jungle” and doesn’t miss a note.
7:35 p.m.: Gates using the device to navigate video archives of keynotes past. Microsoft’s version of iTunes’ ‘Cover Flow.’ Messy.
7:33 p.m.: Gates uses the device to scan a photo of the Vegas skyline behind him. Clicks on the Venetian. The screen displays information for his keynote address. Pops another note indicating Ballmer’s playing nickel slots at another casino. Laughter.
7:31 p.m.: Bach brings Gates back onstage to discuss the future. … Gates takes the stage again with a handheld video recognition device. He points it at Bach and clicks. It recognizes Bach, displays his name onscreen, along with a note saying he owes Gates money.
7:29 p.m.: Fellow presenter uses Tellme to search out a movie theater, browse movie listings, purchase tickets for a movie and then send them to a friend. Pretty slick, especially given the size of the mobile advertising market.
7:27 p.m.: On to Windows Mobile and Microsoft’s Tellme service.
7:26 p.m.: Bach and fellow presenter now demoing “Sync”–an in-car voice-command technology that enables Zune owners to sync their Zunes to their car stereos and then navigate their music libraries with voice commands.
7:24 p.m.: Bach talks about Zune Social as a service that drives music transactions from discovery to purchase. Find a song you like on a friend’s page, click on it and purchase from Zune Marketplace. Again, haven’t we heard all this before?
7:22 p.m.: Listening habits are tracked via “cards.” Bands can create their own Zune Social pages as well. Essentially, MySpace for music.
7:20 p.m.: Zune Social apparently tracks your listening habits in real-time. It’s all about “people-powered music discovery.”
7:18 p.m.: Bach talking up the Zune now. … Demoing Zune Social.
7:17 p.m.: British Telecom is to begin selling Xbox 360s as Media-Room based set-top boxes. Price of relocation to UK not included with activation fee …
7:15 p.m.: In addition to this, MGM will also be adding its film library to Xbox Live. End result: Twice as many hours of on-demand programming as any cable provider out there.
7:14 p.m.: ABC and Disney will be bringing their programming to Xbox Live.
7:13 p.m.: Gates brings Robbie Bach onstage to talk about Xbox 360.
7:11 p.m.: Using Microsoft Silverlight technology, NBC and MSN will put some 3,000 hours of high-definition footage of the Beijing Olympics online. Wow: 3,000 hours of video. What a massive effort. First of its kind.
7:10 p.m.: Gates commenting on broadcast television: “It simply isn’t as fulfilling an experience as online video.”
Here comes another video segment. … Bob Costas pitching.
7:09 p.m.: Moving on to Silverlight. Gates says NBC has chosen Microsoft as its exclusive online video partner for the 2008 Olympics.
7:08 p.m.: He finishes up the design, lays his phone down on the screen and it automatically emails his design to friends for review.
7:07 p.m.: Gates, thankfully, back onstage for another demo. Wait, what’s this. Another Surface demo?! Didn’t we see this last year? Yes, we did–but given by Steve Ballmer, not Gates. Gates using Microsoft’s Surface multitouch computer to demo a snowboard-design service.
7:05 p.m.: The big achievement being touted here seems to be the connection between these services and the single log-on. As Dan Aykroyd might say: Isn’t that AMAZING?
7:04 p.m.: Windows Live Photo Gallery … in browser photo editing, sharing (via email or Flickr) and exporting to blog. Bor-ing. They would have been better off playing the farewell video again. That ‘Bib Pimpin’ segment was comedy gold.
7:02 p.m.: First up: Windows Live Calendar now with … wait for it … multiple calendar overlays (YAY! sigh…)
But wait, there’s more … Windows Live Events, an invitation/event organizing service. They really should have called it Windows Live eVites …)
7 p.m.: Gates brings Mika Krammer, a director of product management for Windows, onstage to demo some new features of Windows Live.
6:59 p.m.: And here comes the product line-up overview: Windows Vista, Windows Live, Windows Mobile ….
6:58 p.m.: A key building block of the second digital decade, the centerpiece building block will be. … (drum roll, please) … Microsoft Windows!
6:56 p.m.: “Devices will know our context and location,” Gates continues. There will be new modes of interaction and natural interfaces. “We’re very interested in simpler ways of navigating our technology.” If he were going to announce Microsoft Bob 2.0, now would be the perfect time to do it. Nope. Ah, well. “The software industry will build these new modes of interaction–touch, voice, gesture–into the software.”
6:55 p.m.: And now for a few predictions. “In the future Microsoft products and services will run on the desktop and in the cloud,” he says. Would that be the cloud with all the Google AdWords all over it? “And 3-D environments will exist for Web experiences, high-quality video and audio in a pervasive way.” Make way for Third Life …
“Devices and services will be connected.” As an example, Gates talks about photos automatically being uploaded to digital-memory application.
6:54 p.m.: Gates back onstage discussing the coming transition in leadership at Microsoft when he will step down from his day-to-day role as the company’s chairman. He says Microsoft is aligned well for success with Steve Ballmer, Ray Ozzie and others.
Moving on … “The second digital decade heralds the following: high definition experience is everywhere.”
6:52 p.m.: Video ends to thunderous applause. UPDATE: Here’s the video:

6:50 p.m.: Footage of Gates cleaning out desk, taking box of office supplies to his Ford Focus. Ford Focus–now that’s funny.
Cut to Peter Jennings: “Let’s face it, all of us here at NBC News will miss reporting on this brilliant, powerful, sexy man who just doesn’t like to pay more than $7 on a haircut.”
6:49 p.m.: Gates calls Jon Stewart and asks about a co-anchor job. Stewart turns him down.
Gates calls Hillary Clinton. She turns him down as a running mate, so he calls Obama:
Gates: It’s Bill.
Obama: Bill Shatner?
Gates: No, Bill!
Obama: Bill Clinton?
6:48 p.m.: Steven Spielberg reviews Gates’s audition reel (“X-Men” and “Matrix” re-enactments; Gates in Wolverine get-up, Gates and Ballmer in Matrix-style black trench coats) and denies him a part in his next film.
6:47 p.m.: Footage of Gates calling Bono in the middle of a U2 concert. Gates plays guitar riff on “Guitar Hero” for Bono. Bono tells him there’s no place for him in U2. Which is OK, I’m sure, since there’s certainly no place for Bono at Microsoft.
6:46 p.m.: My God … Gates in recording studio with Jay-Z… Holy … Gates singing “Big Pimpin’.” Wild laughter and applause. “It was great,” Jay-Z tells Gates, before turning to the camera and muttering, “not so much.”
6:45 p.m.: Various Microsoft execs talking about Gates. Clip of Gates in office playing with action figures: “Never doubt the power of software.” Laughter.
Quickly followed by Gates in gym working out with Matthew McConaughey, who doesn’t really strike you as a Windows user.
6:44 p.m.: “This is my last keynote. Come July, it will be the first time I won’t be working at Microsoft since I was 17.” And here comes the inevitable farewell video ….
6:42 p.m.: He mentions the progression of digital entertainment–music, movies, photos. The trend is clear: all media and entertainment will be software driven in the second digital decade. And in the third, it will all be driven by Microsoft Windows! Muahahahahaha. Kidding … Moving on … “I’ll soon step down as chairman.”
6:40 p.m.: Gates finally takes the stage. He recalls his first keynote in 1994, a time when Windows ’95 was first coming together. “It was the beginning of the first digital decade.” Ah yes, “The Digital Decade.”
6:39 p.m.: Here comes another silly video, this one set to “Believe in Magic,” featuring people from all walks of life extraordinarily happy to be using Microsoft products. They look like they’re all on Ecstasy. And it’s probably safe to say that nobody has ever looked like that while using a Microsoft product.
6:35 p.m.: Shapiro says Gates has given 10 CES keynotes, eight consecutively. He’s spoken at CES 11 times. Guess he must be the Guinness World Record holder. How ’bout that, huh?
6:33 p.m.: And here comes Gates. Wait–that’s not Gates. It’s Consumer Electronics Association President Gary Shapiro. OH RAPTURE! Disappointed applause. “In my opinion these are the best four days of the year,” says Shapiro. (Tell that to Steve Jobs next week.)
6:30 p.m.: Silly CES promo video… Correction: advertisement.
6:29 p.m.: Getting started right on time. Guess Jim Allchin and the Vista development team didn’t do Gates’s makeup this time around. Lights dim….
6:25 p.m.: In a few moments, Bill Gates, the Frank Sinatra of the Dat(a) Pack (Steve Jobs presumably in the Dean Martin role), will deliver his 11th Consumer Electronics Show keynote–and by many projections his last.
6:00 p.m.: The ballroom of the Venetian Resort Hotel Casino is pretty much packed, and like most things in Las Vegas it’s BIG. But it has to be the worst pre-keynote music EVER: from 1982 video game soundtrack to passed-out-after-the-rave techno to European disco to new wave. Really covering all the genres. At this rate, Bill Gates could take the stage to the theme from “The Dukes of Hazzard” or the “Annie” soundtrack.

Q: Your returns as a category. Is there any No. 1 reason for a return?
A: There are no systematic issues. The vast majority of the people just love the product, have a great experience with it. When there is an issue, we get on it and address it as quickly as possible.

Q: What explains this anecdotal evidence that it’s out of whack, compared to the Wii or the PlayStation 3 or other consoles?
A: I would go back and say the vast majority of people love their experience. We continue to go back and address all of these issues on a case-by-case basis. There is a vocal minority out there. We go off and try to address their issues as quickly and as pain-free as possible.

–Excerpt from a San Jose Mercury News interview with Todd Holmdahl, Microsoft’s corporate vice president of Gaming and Xbox Products Group.

Microsoft choked down a big plate of crow this morning, acknowledging widespread reports of Xbox 360 failures and offering full repairs for the most widely reported console malfunction, the so-called red ring of death.

“The majority of Xbox 360 owners are having a great experience with their console and have from day one,” Robbie Bach, Microsoft’s president of Entertainment and Devices, said in a statement. “But, this problem has caused frustration for some of our customers and for that, we sincerely apologize.”

“Some” of your customers? Try a third to as many as half. Because that’s what the size of the $1.15 billion anticipated repair bill Microsoft put forth today would seem to imply and anecdotal reports have already suggested that “some” may be a number as large as 33%.

And frankly, that’s not hard to believe given tales of Xbox 360 woe such as this one from gamer Rob Cassingham, who had six consoles fail on him. “The first machine I had was the Magnavox Odyssey in 1972,” he told the San Jose Mercury News. “I have never had to send any of them back. The gaming experience has been wonderful. And Xbox Live is great. But the reliability of this thing. … I had six machines, and seven (counting one replacement) crapped out. That’s not OK. If I had 100 machines and seven crapped out, that’s OK.”

My 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we’ll get him to own a Zune.”

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, USA Today, 2007.04.29

No one believes Microsoft’s Zune media player will displace the iPod anytime soon, if ever. Except, perhaps, Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices Division, who is not only paid to believe that, but to make it happen as well. Of course, these things do take time, as Bach can certainly attest. “We’re still about nine months into having Zune in the marketplace,” Bach told the San Francisco Chronicle. “We’re very pleased with the progress. We’ve sold a little over a million Zunes. In the category we’re in, the hard-disk-based category, we’ve got about 10% market share. It’s a good start. It’s not an overwhelming start. I’m not going to pretend it’s some gigantic move. … There will be new things down the path (in the fall). We just came out with a special edition pink Zune and a watermelon-colored Zune, which are the personal favorites with my kids.”

I guess the “National Park-bench brown” Zune was a nonstarter in the Bach household. Anyway … Selling 1 million of any product in nine months is certainly an accomplishment–especially when that product competes with a market leader like the iPod. That said, with Apple recently celebrating the sale of its 100 millionth iPod, Bach’s got his work cut out for him.

UPDATE: Looks like Microsoft may not have yet hit that 1-million-Zunes-sold mark. Business 2.0 points out that Bach didn’t really say Microsoft had already sold a million Zunes. “If you listen to the interview,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt writes, “what Bach said was:

When we finish our fiscal year in June we’ll have sold a little over a million Zunes, so we feel very good about that.” [emphasis added]

“That’s what we used to call an editing error,” Elmer-DeWitt continues, “one that mistakes a projection with actual sales and expands the time frame by about 15%. Microsoft still has more than a month to sell its first million Zunes, which would put it on the schedule it set for itself, not ahead.”