It seems like a month does not pass without another rumor about when Chinese Internet powerhouse Alibaba Group will have its much-anticipated IPO.

Today, in the latest loosely-sourced report, a newsletter quoted a Chinese-language site on a leaked memo that allegedly said the preparations would begin in the second half of 2013 for a public offering in late 2013 or early 2014.

Maybe not so fast, according to sources close to the situation, who note that incentives in a recent stock buyback with major shareholder Yahoo could drive a public offering to the end of 2015.

The timeframe is not a deadline, of course, but Alibaba benefits more if it does its IPO by then. Sources said the IPO will depend entirely on market timing and there is not a current plan to do so soon.

The news matters a great deal to Yahoo investors, especially because much of its market valuation is still made up of the remaining 22 percent stake it still holds in Alibaba, as well as its assets in Yahoo! Japan.

Yahoo completed the sale of half its stake in Alibaba earlier this year for $7.6 billion, netting the Silicon Valley Internet giant about $4.5 billion — most of which is being used for repurchases of shares.

As Alibaba noted at the time of that deal:

“Under the terms of the agreement with Yahoo!, Alibaba Group has the right to repurchase one-half of Yahoo!’s remaining stake upon a qualifying initial public offering in the future. Yahoo! originally acquired its stake in Alibaba Group in 2005 in exchange for US$1 billion and sale of its Yahoo! China business to Alibaba Group.”

Since then, Alibaba’s value has risen dramatically on a strong performance in its various units, including e-commerce giant Taobao.

At the time of its stock buyback with Yahoo, Alibaba’s value was $40 billion, which some think will rise strongly over the next few years.

That’s no guarantee, of course, and it depends how Alibaba’s business in China and elsewhere fares. That has not stopped some Yahoo investors, in fact, from flogging gigantic Alibaba IPO valuations, despite the fact that the company is mulling whether to keep it lower to avoid a Facebook-like debacle.

And while it’s clear the company is eventually headed for an IPO, those close to the situation said its management is not in any rush, especially with a recent influx of capital from investors such as Silver Lake, DST Global, Temasek and Yunfeng Fund.

“So many rumors have been floated on this IPO and we can expect a lot more until it actually happens,” said one source.

“People expect a better search experience on Facebook,” a Facebook spokesman told us in a statement. “We are working on improvements to better meet those expectations but are not in talks to enter into a new search partnership.”

The denial comes just one day after an erroneous report published in the Sunday Telegraph, where reporter Katherine Rushton cited anonymous sources saying Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg were in the midst of discussions to form a search partnership.

As my boss, Kara Swisher, wrote on Sunday, a deal like this wouldn’t work for a number of reasons. The social giant is already tied up in a long-term search deal with Microsoft and its Bing search engine. Not to mention that Yahoo outsourced its core search tech to Microsoft long ago. (Read Danny Sullivan’s post for another great takedown of the Telegraph report.)

This isn’t to say that Facebook isn’t working on search at all. Indeed, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg said at the TechCrunch: Disrupt conference in September, the company is definitely interested in search, and will be making moves in the arena in the future.

But those moves will likely be moves of its own, not working on search tech with partners like Yahoo.

Chalk another one up to the rumor mill.

Yahoo and Facebook are not currently in talks about forming a search alliance or building a search engine together, according to my sources, who scoffed about such a deal reported in a thinner-than-tissue-paper post by the Telegraph earlier today.

In addition, Yahoo is not anywhere near ending its search partnership with Microsoft, although new CEO Marissa Mayer has been in touch with the software giant about improving performance that has been less than lackluster over the course of its history so far.

Despite this, it would be nearly impossible for Yahoo to extricate itself from the long-term contract easily — though there are certain, but very difficult, outs. But sources tell me Microsoft would fight any attempt to end it earlier.

Thus, while Yahoo and Facebook have had a very good relationship of late, after the pair stopped warring over patents, and have also had success with its various sharing initiatives, a substantive search collaboration is not now in the mix.

Could the pair do more in terms of sharing among its users? Sure! Could they more tightly integrate services? Yep! Could they do something jointly related to advertising? Why not! But will they build a search engine together? Not likely.

Indeed, I am not even sure what such a thing means, since it would now be nearly impossible to execute, given Yahoo has outsourced its core search technology long ago to Microsoft and has been largely focused on improving search experience since then.

Of course, it’s no secret that Facebook is likely to enter the search arena in a more substantive manner in the future — CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg has said so publicly — because people expect a better experience and users have been asking for years for improvements.

So watch that space, for certain, as it could also be very lucrative for the company and perhaps give search leader Google a bit more of a race.

But the social networking site is likely to work on its own in such an effort — as well as approach the space in much different ways. Hooking up with Yahoo would bring it almost nothing it might need to make it a success.

There are some interesting what-ifs to ponder with the idea of Microsoft, Facebook and Yahoo forming some kind of Avengers-style effort to battle Google, especially if it had a mobile element. But that’s the movie version at this moment.

(Speaking of movies, I am sorry it took me so long to get to this, but I was seeing the final “Twilight” with some All Things Digital staffers. I can report that the sparkly vampires of the film are also not in search alliance talks with Facebook.)

One unusual phrase in the Telegraph article did catch my eye though, which noted that “board members expect the talks to lead to much more substantial collaboration based around Web-based search.”

Such a Facebook search tie-up rumor would certainly do wonders for a Yahoo stock pop tomorrow for all the hedge funds now piling into the Silicon Valley Internet giant, would that it were so.

But it’s not.

According to the report, social networking is becoming a more important means of communication and information gathering in China, where 36% of PC users said social media sites are their favorite source of content. Chinese users spend an average of 46 minutes per day on social media sites, the report says, while users in the U.S. and Japan spend 37 minutes and seven minutes on the sites per day, respectively.

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Though last week’s reports were overblown and premature, it certainly might come to that at some point if past is prologue — Alibaba CEO Jack Ma has declared his interest publicly a number of times and has certainly been busy lining up his financial and strategic partners to do so.

This is one very sharp sword of Damocles hovering over Yahoo that could drop at any time and very quickly. It has impact, too, because every day there are unsettling Wall Street whispers that the bid is coming — I got three today, in fact, that it would happen Monday.

Actually, the day it is most likely to happen is the moment after Yahoo once again turns down the pair’s latest offer to buy back their shares in a complex tax-free transaction.

This has been a multi-year effort on the part of the trio, one littered mostly with recrimination and tears. Lots and lots of tears.

But this time, it’s critical to the Asian partners to strike the deal with Yahoo — and before its current board does another deal with current private equity bidders it is now contemplating.

Because once new leadership is in power, Ma’s leverage goes buh-bye. Now, it is a quantum level higher with the old Yahoos than with the next ones, who will have much more control and power over the company.

Thus, the threat of a possible whole company bid at a higher prices — a tasty treat to disgruntled shareholders — keeps the pressure on Yahoo’s current directors not to make a partial deal that is considered wanting.

This bird in the hand is seen as critical to Alibaba and SoftBank, who want only to get back their stakes and not to engage in what would turn into an ugly and hostile battle for control of all of Yahoo.

As one source told me last week: “The threat of a takeover is more useful than the damage an actual takeover would cause for everyone. No one wants this to be unfriendly.”

Perish the thought!

Yahoo board member Brad Smith — who is Intuit’s CEO and president in his spare time — has become the key man in this whole complex sales process and has also taken up the central role in dealing with the Asian proposal, along with Yahoo’s interim CEO, Tim Morse, and its legal head, Mike Callaghan.

They have to wrangle what to do with Yahoo’s 40 percent stake in Alibaba and a 35 percent holding in Yahoo Japan, which makes up a great deal of the company’s value and has become its most vexing Gordian knot.

Still, after a number of previous efforts failed miserably, Alibaba and Softbank brought yet another proposal to Yahoo in early October that would spin off the stakes to them and also avoid a big tax bill.

The sides have been talking on and off amid the other noise at Yahoo of late, which this week centered on low-priced bids for a partial investment in Yahoo from two separate PE firms, Silver Lake and TPG Capital.

Now what Yahoo does with its Asian assets matters to them, too, as both have their own plans for the dispensation of those stakes as key elements of their deals.

So it is not clear what would happen if the Alibaba and SoftBank shares were sold before either deal was done.

But it is unlikely to be a positive thing.

“The Asian assets are downside protection if the core Yahoo business is melting faster than anyone thinks,” said one person. “Without it there, Yahoo might be a lot more risky to buy into.”

Like, you might say, trying to catch a falling knife.

What an amazing coincidence.

On the very day Yahoo’s board is considering actual bids from two private equity firms interested in deals to buy close to 20 percent of the company for between $16.50 and $17.50 a share, comes a spate of eerily similar breathless media postings that there’s another bid in the making for $20!

That’s totes better, right? I mean, how can Yahoo’s directors accept a real live lesser-priced bid now when there’s a prettier one in the fog just ahead?

No, really, it’s there — if you squint really, really hard.

Except it’s not even close, when you actually check with two of the key members of the group of alleged buyers, which would apparently be Blackstone, Bain Capital and Yahoo’s Asian partners, Alibaba Group and SoftBank.

Sources close to Blackstone and Alibaba said while there have been talks, which have been previously reported weeks ago here and elsewhere, there is no bid in the offing that is close to fruition and at that price.

In an unusual public statement, in fact, Alibaba’s John Spelich said flatly: “Alibaba Group has not made a decision to be part of a whole-company bid for Yahoo.”

This from a company whose voluble CEO Jack Ma is prone to making giant and noisy speeches to signal his interest in finding a way — any way — to get back shares of the Chinese Internet giant from Yahoo.

Not this time, and several sources close to Alibaba reiterated that it was nowhere near close to any bid as yet and that a price is still up in the air. In addition, sources added, Alibaba might decide to work with another PE group, such as Providence Equity.

In addition, sources noted that if Alibaba could strike an adequate deal with private equity bidders to get a large chunk of the stake back, it would be highly preferable to a hostile takeover of Yahoo that could end in tears and little else.

“The threat of a takeover is more useful than the damage an actual takeover would cause for everyone,” said one person close to the situation. “No one wants this to be unfriendly.”

So why the rumors — doubtlessly being spread around by hopelessly cynical Wall Street types interested only in stock manipulation — surfacing today?

Simple: To get some easy-to-play media outlet to bite, report it as speculative fact and cause the stock of Yahoo to take flight tomorrow.

Hey, it could happen!

Sadly, this junior-league trick has already worked — Yahoo shares were up a dollar to $16.72 in after-hours trading tonight.

It is likely to go even higher tomorrow, which could cause the board of Yahoo to delay accepting either of the partial bids from Silver Lake or TPG Capital, even if they were the best thing for the company and its employees.

Except that the job of the Yahoo board is to evaluate what’s before them and not what is perhaps, someday, soon, wait-by-the-phone, really soon, I promise is going to be delivered.

In fact, several sources noted that it’s not clear if the Yahoo board has even asked for parties to submit whole-company bids yet.

When and if Yahoo’s board does that and if something better actually does come down the pike, with a much fatter price tag of $20 or more, then the directors can mull that over.

That would be the prudent thing to do for the company, its employees and its shareholders, even if Yahoo’s stock gets a temporary lift now.

Maybe I am just a hopeless Silicon Valley romantic and not a hardened Wall Street M&A type, but the survival of Yahoo is the real point here, rather than the lining of bankers’ already fee-stuffed pockets.

And anything other than that is just fog.

Do sale rumors make a troubled asset more attractive? Yes — except when more rumors (that those sales rumors might not be true) appear.

Welcome to just another day in the life of Yahoo, which saw its shares drop more than 5.5 percent today. Its stock declined almost a dollar to close at $15.64, after it was reported by various news orgs that Yahoo might be leaning toward no sale and a shareholder dividend, and toward taking control of its own sale of its lucrative Asian assets.

That was counter to the news — from a number of the very same outlets — touting a variety of ever more elaborate and sometimes breathless sale scenarios last week, featuring various configurations of Microsoft, Google and private equity firms like Silver Lake and others.

Silver Lake, in fact, appears to be the most aggressive in the possible bidding for all or parts of Yahoo, and has been noodling such a deal most intently, and for a long time now.

It makes sense, given that Silver Lake was successful in a vaguely similar deal that ultimately saved the Internet telephony service Skype, which it eventually peddled at a high price to Microsoft.

In fact, according to several sources, Yahoo director and co-founder Jerry Yang — also a former CEO of the company, who appears to have seized the ball firmly in the strategy game — met with Silver Lake today for an unspecified little chitchat.

That said, one source told me, “what is deeply uncertain is whether Silver Lake will do something at all.”

This is par for the course in this everything-but-the-kitchen-sink drama. Because — although it makes for a boring post, and the back and forth throat-clearing before an actual event might be entertaining — so far, not very much is actually happening as yet at Yahoo, with regard to its variety of options.

Of course, this could change in an hour. Or tomorrow, or the next day. Most of all, it’s clear that Yahoo’s board has to move in some significant way before the end of the year.

So, yes, the Silicon Valley Internet giant is doing all the sales-oriented stuff it should do with its coterie of pricey bankers (presumably being paid by the hour).

Yes, it has recently hired a talent-search firm, which is eyeing the landscape to find a willing CEO. (Even more adviser costs!)

And, yes, it is still wrangling with its Asian partners — Alibaba Group and SoftBank — over how to do a tax-free transaction (you’d think from all the sweating over it that this deal was harder to solve than the European debt crisis).

And, on schedule, activist shareholders — like hedge-fund agitator Dan Loeb of Third Point — should be attacking again soon, until a deal is done.

But according to many sources both inside and outside Yahoo, what’s happening is pretty much business as usual for this Hamlet of a company, which is lugubriously debating and weighing and pondering its fate.

I suppose it should, given the importance of it all, except it is a conundrum that has been going on for far too long at Yahoo, and under a number of different leaders.

In other words, it’s like “As the World Turns,” except with some new characters and a whole lot more amnesia.

But the slowness of a very real process is also causing deep frustration with all those dealing with Yahoo now — including possible bidders, and definitely its Asian partners.

Their gripes — which are louder than in most deals — are not surprising: They refuse to sign a too-onerous NDA to look at Yahoo’s books; there’s an irksome tone of indecision on the part of the company’s board; and, as always, the incessant leaks about all of this and more are making it worse.

One bidder has likened the company to a “melting iceberg that has a lot less time than the planet has to put its house in order.”

Another bemoaned the variety of trial balloons being floated, and noted that no movement was what Yahoo seems to do best.

That’s not exactly true, of course, so expect to see more leaks about plots and plans and meetings.

But no matter what you hear, keep in mind that having Yahoo’s fate being spun about like a top on a daily basis on Wall Street and in the media is not good for the company itself — or for its employees and shareholders.

Since it makes me dizzy — even though I like a good scoop as much as the next reporter — that’s the reason I have largely stuck to reporting about the actual internal turmoil inside Yahoo, from poor employee morale to various staff rejiggerings to more relentless brain drain.

Because while everyone fiddles, Yahoo’s real prospects of maintaining its core business melt a little bit more every day.

Yahoo is on its third CEO in four years, it has lost advertising momentum to Google and Facebook, its engagement levels are dangerously slowing, its social and mobile strategies are unclear and even its powerful email product is under siege.

And in the end, it is only these things that will matter to whoever runs the company in the end.

[Photo from Mat Honan's fantastic tweet here.]

Yahoo’s interim CEO Tim Morse penned another weekly email to staff at the Silicon Valley Internet giant today; the only one from the company’s leadership, which sent out two internal memos last week.

It’s below, and again addresses the swirl of news around Yahoo’s plans as part of its ongoing strategery over the company’s future.

“I know there was some more swirl out there this week,” wrote Morse. “You know we don’t comment on rumors or speculation and for now, everything has been just that — rumors.”

Well, not so much, which I will be weighing in on soon via an old-fangled thing called reporting, Tim!

Until then, here is the latest missive:

Short note from me today. Before we head into the weekend, I wanted to give a shout out to the Flickr team for their great work on their new mobile features. What they rolled out this week got rave reviews and tons of great buzz. We also had a nice Demos and Drinks event here in Sunnyvale that I was able to check out, so thanks to all the Yahoos involved in that.

Last but certainly not least, I want to say thank you to the teams that are working hard on Advertising Week. It kicks off on Monday, and we’ve got some big stuff in store, so stay tuned on that front.

I know there was some more swirl out there this week. You know we don’t comment on rumors or speculation and for now, everything has been just that — rumors.

Rest assured, when we have something to share, we will. In the meantime, please know how much the entire executive team appreciates your great work — and please keep it up!

Have a good weekend.

Tim

Maybe because it is a Friday in August, it’s natural that the Apple iPhone 5 rumors would get jacked up again.

Today, it was an erroneous report that Apple would hold a media event on Sept. 7, which was soon countered by another post by Jim Dalrymple of The Loop that said the company would not.

The second is the right one, because — as John Paczkowski has previously written — October is when Apple plans to launch its next-gen iPhone.

Several sources we have rechecked with today underscored that the later time frame — some had thought Apple would launch its latest products sometime in September, as they had done in previous years — was accurate.

There are always a myriad of rumors around the exact dates of basic events for Apple, a company which attracts an unusual amount of attention from consumers and the media, unlike any other tech company.

As we noted in our report, which many have also written about, “the iPhone 5 will use the faster A5 processor on which the iPad 2 runs, a Qualcomm dual mode GSM/CDMA baseband, and a higher resolution eight-megapixel rear camera.”

Apple will also unveil its iCloud offering to consumers then too, which it has already released to developers in beta.

So for now, we’d like everyone to go back to their beach chairs and chillax to the haunting work of one of Apple’s favorite bands — U2 — called, of course, “October”:

One of the results of Yahoo’s weak earnings report earlier this week has been the renewal of chatter about possible changes in its leadership and even ownership.

And continued investor discomfort with its troubled stock price–Yahoo shares are down 7.25 percent year over year and an astonishing 49 percent on a five-year basis–and the level of renewed grumbling by major institutional shareholders is causing some key players to go back to their PowerPoints to reevaluate various options.

(By way of contrast, Google is down about 4.5 percent year over year–largely due to last week’s earnings release with higher than expected expenses–but still up more than 20 percent for the five years.)

As many might recall, last year Yahoo was under scrutiny by a number of interested parties–from big media companies to other digital players to private equity firms–considering a number of takeover scenarios.

Most of them were just talk and no action resulted, but that did not mean that interest went away.

The truth is, they are still out there and ruminating–this time with what sources describe as a much more amenable Yahoo board, with several of its key members willing to entertain any legitimate offers or ideas to improve the Silicon Valley search giant’s prospects.

In the last go-round, by contrast, Yahoo’s top execs–including CEO Carol Bartz–denied any interest in the swirl of rumors related to a variety of ideas.

That’s definitely changed–at least at the board level–so here are three very credible scenarios of what could happen:

Peetie, Peetie, Yahoo-Sweetie

Late last year, BoomTown wrote a post about the interest that former News Corp. COO and President Peter Chernin–who now owns his own entertainment production company–had in the situation at Yahoo.

As I wrote in November:

But multiple sources from a variety of sides said that Chernin, a well-liked and deeply experienced media and entertainment exec, has been contacted by a number of private equity firms and other investors about his interest in becoming involved should any of the various and sundry scenarios around the Internet giant pan out.

And Chernin, many sources said, has expressed a definite interest in the situation, perhaps because he was deeply involved in a previous deal when running News Corp.

At the time, it involved combining the media giant’s Myspace social networking site with Yahoo and also Microsoft’s portal MSN and creating a new company, code-named “TrafficCo.”

Indeed, that interest remains for Chernin, who has also been an increasingly active investor, including in the digital sector. He is an angel funder of the hot social media app start-up Flipboard, and also just joined the board of the popular Pandora music service.

The most likely possible scenarios have him joining with deep-pocketed partners, including Providence Equity Partners and, yes, Microsoft, as well as investment banks or advisory firms, such as Morgan Stanley and Code Advisors.

The approach being considered–which would only be done in a friendly way, with the cooperation of Yahoo’s board–would center on making a large enough investment in its shares, allowing the group to take control of the management and the board, putting Chernin in as chairman and maybe CEO (or with a new CEO–see next section).

If Microsoft were involved–and Chernin has strong ties there–such a scenario might include folding all its online properties into Yahoo and renegotiating its rocky search partnership, too.

This is an idea that intrigues a lot of people–including current Yahoo board chairman Roy Bostock, co-founder Jerry Yang and other board members–who have indicated recently to several investors and dealmakers a willingness to listen to credible player such as Chernin.

But, in this scenario, it would be up to Chernin and his partners to make a prosposal, said sources, and he might decide that the complexity of getting the power to make big changes at Yahoo is too big to tackle.

In addition, Chernin remains a successful Hollywood player, with several major television and movie projects in the works, as well as big investment possibilities in Asia.

“Does he want the headache of Yahoo at this point in his career?” asked one person, among many Chernin has talked to recently about becoming involved in the company. “Would you?”

Maybe so, if it would provide a big financial windfall. Many think an exec with a reputation like Chernin’s could easily begin to move Yahoo’s moribund stock upward quickly.

ABC (Anybody But Carol)

Here’s one truth: Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz does not get proper credit for a number of moves she has made since coming to the company two years ago, including cleaning up the messy corporate structure, de-complexifying garbled systems, cutting costs and bringing its far-flung operations into line.

Yahoo’s stock is certainly doing better than when she arrived in early January of 2009, when it was in the $12 range compared to its current $16 price point.

But here’s another: That stock price now includes more than $10 in solid assets–cash and Yahoo’s much more valuable stakes in China’s Alibaba Group and Yahoo! Japan–leaving very little true share appreciation.

And here are more truths: Bartz’s inability to get revenues growing, innovations flowing, promising start-ups acquired and–most importantly–to stop the continual exodus of talent out the door of Yahoo has made her tenure shakier than ever.

Add to that making its relationships with Asian partners more tense, almost no traction in key mobile, video and social arenas, a record of loud public declarations that have fallen flat and serious troubles in Yahoo’s search and online partnership with Microsoft–a deal Bartz struck and is charged with managing–recently highlighted in Yahoo’s earnings earlier this week.

As shareholder activist Eric Jackson, who has long agitated for change at Yahoo, wrote this week in a post:

“The truth is that investors are fed up with Bartz. Their enmity towards Bartz is palpable when you talk to them. Bartz talked a big game coming into the job and she hasn’t delivered. It’s that simple.”

Well, not that simple and maybe not fair, but it’s also clear that no one thinks Bartz will be re-upped when her contract is up in 18 months.

Thus, it’s no surprise that ideas of other possible leaders of Yahoo are being contemplated now.

Here’s the short list I have made of my choices: Akamai President and Yahoo board member David Kenny; former Microsoft exec and current Juniper Networks CEO Kevin Johnson; former AOL CEO and current News Corp. digital head Jon Miller; and Nikesh Arora, current Chief Business Officer and sales head at Google.

There are plenty more to pick from, of course, and any could be installed in conjunction with an effort such as Chernin’s.

AOL Under the Hoop

No good Yahoo scenario plotting can be contemplated without including AOL and its flashy CEO Tim Armstrong.

Armstrong has made no secret of wanting to get ahold of Yahoo properties to apply the strategy he has been trying at AOL to get it moving again.

Which is: To become the premiere digital media company.

Which is actually Yahoo’s new motto–although arguably, in word and deed, Armstrong has been much more active in pushing the concept and narrative.

That includes his incessant acquisitions of all kinds of online media properties, including the big fish–the $315 million purchase of the Huffington Post and the coronation of its even-flashier co-founder Arianna Huffington as content chief.

Armstrong has certainly not been averse to the idea of a Yahoo-AOL hookup with him at the top, and has been actively talking to anyone interested in such a deal.

And things could get a lot more interesting if AOL linked with a bigger strategic partner, such as News Corp. or Disney or even Google, Armstrong’s former stomping grounds.

Still, wishing does not make it so, especially with a much smaller and weaker set of assets than Yahoo and a still poor record on goosing its advertising sales.

AOL’s stock is down 30 percent year over year, as investors still worry about Armstrong’s ability to turn the company around, which kind of puts him in the same situation as Bartz.

“AOL is waiting under the hoop for whatever happens, which is a good place to be,” said one person close to the situation. “Why not?”

Why not, indeed–so, let the games begin.

Odd that Apple would allow something like this to be taken to an event filled to bursting with media. Good thing News Corp. didn’t hold it at a German beer garden….(Disclosure: News. Corp. owns this Web site.)

There had indeed been rumors about Steve Jobs’s health, after he didn’t show up at the Apple iPhone launch on Verizon Wireless in New York last week, as was expected.

And then they flared again, when the event to show off News Corp.’s new Apple iPad-only newspaper, the Daily, was postponed due to issues related to its subscription system.

This pair of non-Jobs events had caused a low-grade rumble in Silicon Valley that perhaps tech’s most iconic, gifted and charismatic CEO could be sick again.

In fact, I got a dozen calls last week from people asking me if I knew if anything was wrong, which I did not.

And while the tech echo chamber usually puts two and two together and comes up with three, this time all that gossip turned out to be quite correct.

Jobs is once again ill enough to have to take time off from his leadership role, which he called a “medical leave of absence” in an email to his staff released today.

So now, once again, the intense debate will begin about exactly what is happening with Jobs’s health, how much Apple should reveal and how much it will likely not, and how that is so very awful, because the people deserve to know.

In fact, we–the media and Wall Street and Apple users–already know plenty enough, which is: Jobs has had a persistent and very serious illness he has been fighting successfully for many years now.

But his outlook, from the moment he found out about his particular form of pancreatic cancer, has never been really good.

More to the point, his ability to bounce back several times has been both heartening and more than a little miraculous.

But, remember this: Both times he has taken time off for health reasons, Jobs has come back with fierce and game-changing innovation.

The iPhone came out after his first big bout with his illness, the iPad after the second.

Today, it’s happened a third time and I suspect much of what will be written about his diagnosis will be sheer speculation and only a little bit will be accurate reporting.

I am guessing this time too that Jobs will be as tight-lipped as ever about what he’s going through, which could be a wide range of medical issues, some more serious than others.

And that, I think, should be what everyone should let him do, because the public Steve Jobs has given his large audience more than enough since he got back after the last time he was sick.

Today, he said in the email: “I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can. In the meantime, my family and I would deeply appreciate respect for our privacy.”

I, for one, think he deserves exactly that and much more.

But, if you can’t get enough of him, until he hopefully recovers, will you settle for this tremendous onstage interview he gave to Walt Mossberg and me last year at the eighth D: All Things Digital conference?

It is vintage Jobs, as you will see:

PREVIOUSLY

• Apple Shares Down Nearly 8 Percent in Frankfurt on News of Jobs’s Medical Leave
• Citing Health, Steve Jobs Steps Away From Apple, Again
• Apple Opposes Proposal on CEO Succession Planning
• Deutsche Bank Joins the Running of the Apple Bulls
• Jobs: “I’m Vertical, Back at Apple and Loving Every Day of It”
• Apple Investors Are Wusses
• When Steve Jobs Said “Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish,” He Did Not Mean This Foolish
• AAPL Sauce
• Apple’s Steve Jobs: “I Have Decided to Take a Medical Leave of Absence”
• The Entire Letter: Steve Jobs Explains His Health Problem: “Hormone Imbalance”–Predicts Recovery by Spring and Will Stay On as CEO
• Ain’t Nobody’s Business If Jobs Is or Isn’t

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110117/steve-jobs-asked-for-privacy-and-he-deserves-it-this-time/feed/ 19 http://allthingsd.com/20110110/square-confirms-27-5-million-in-new-round-of-funding/ http://allthingsd.com/20110110/square-confirms-27-5-million-in-new-round-of-funding/#comments Mon, 10 Jan 2011 19:36:24 +0000 Tricia Duryee http://emoney.allthingsd.com/?p=1494 Square, the mobile payments service that’s taking on Visa and MasterCard, has confirmed it has raised a $27.5 million round of funding led by Sequoia Capital.

The funding, which has been rumored for some time, also includes previous investors Khosla Ventures, which led a $10 million round in late 2009.

The San Francisco-based start-up now has a valuation of around $240 million, up from a valuation of around $45 million in its prior round of funding, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Sequoia Capital’s Roelof Botha, who was a former CFO of PayPal, will join Square’s board.

Square charges either 2.75 percent plus 15 cents per transaction if a credit card is swiped, or 3.5 percent plus 15 cents per transaction if a credit card number is keyed into its mobile application. Square’s dongle, which plugs into an iPhone, is free, and the company doesn’t require contracts, setup fees or minimums like many of the competitors do, making it attractive to small merchants.

Mountain View, Calif.-based Intuit announced today that its GoPayment mobile payment service will offer a free credit card reader and no monthly service fees to business owners who sign up by mid-February. Square also faces stiff competition from Visa, MasterCard and American Express, which are all working on mobile solutions.

The cash will be used to build up the company’s team, which currently numbers 64 employees, including contractors. The company expects to grow its staff to 150 by year’s end, The Wall Street Journal reports.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110110/square-confirms-27-5-million-in-new-round-of-funding/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20110110/verizon-iphone-what-att-worry/ http://allthingsd.com/20110110/verizon-iphone-what-att-worry/#comments Mon, 10 Jan 2011 18:11:43 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=55493 Another question to ponder on the eve of the iPhone’s debut on Verizon: Now that its archrival has the device on which it once had an exclusive, a device that has done so much for its bottom line, how will AT&T respond?

Or, rather, how has it been responding? Because it’s clear the company has been preparing for this moment for some time. Last year, it accelerated upgrade eligibility for iPhone customers, making it easier for them to get the iPhone 4 when Apple released it. And it locked them all into two-year contracts in the process. And then, last week, it drastically reduced the price of the iPhone 3GS, halving it to $49 from $99.

Presumably, AT&T could follow this with additional pricing promotions that could further limit iPhone subscriber defections to Verizon, though at this point one could argue that it’s as well prepared for its loss of iPhone exclusivity as it will ever be.

Why? Two big reasons:

1. According to Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Larsen, nearly 80 percent of AT&T iPhone users are currently on family or corporate plans, which makes switching to a new carrier a difficult proposition.
2. Approximately 75 percent of them still have at least a year left on their contracts.

And there’s a third wild-card reason as well: How Verizon’s network fares after a big influx of data-heavy iPhone subscribers. That’s tough to predict, but two analysts I’ve spoken with said they expect Verizon to suffer some network growing pains, though not as bad as the ones suffered by AT&T. Ultimately, Verizon is starting off with a better network, and CDMA is said to be a more spectrally efficient standard than UMTS.

So will there be some AT&T subscribers who switch to Verizon when it begins selling the iPhone? Certainly. But they may not be nearly as large in number as you might think.

“AT&T has done everything it can,” Needham and Co. analyst Charlie Wolf told me this morning. “The company locked in a lot of iPhone owners by waiving early termination fees last summer. It’s moved aggressively to add a bunch of BlackBerrys and Android phones. And it should be remembered that AT&T will continue to sell the iPhone. So I doubt that the loss of subscribers to Verizon will be that large. But it could be material as it pertains to the bragging rights between AT&T and Verizon. “

PREVIOUSLY:

• Why Verizon’s iPhone Won’t Be So Bad for RIM
• How Might the Verizon iPhone Differ From the iPhone 4 (Besides Being Able to Make Calls)?
• Tired: Speculating About Verizon iPhone. Wired: Speculating About Verizon iPhone Sales.
• Verizon iPhone to Debut With Unlimited Data Plan
• Apple CEO Likely to Appear at Verizon iPhone Event
• Verizon Event Set for Tuesday–iPhone Time

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110110/verizon-iphone-what-att-worry/feed/ 3 http://allthingsd.com/20110110/tired-speculating-about-verizon-iphone-wired-speculating-about-verizon-iphone-sales/ http://allthingsd.com/20110110/tired-speculating-about-verizon-iphone-wired-speculating-about-verizon-iphone-sales/#comments Mon, 10 Jan 2011 11:16:10 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=55465 Verizon Wireless will hold an event in New York tomorrow where, as we first reported here, it will announce the availability of Apple’s iPhone on its network. And when it does, it will halt once and for all the near-pathological Verizon iPhone speculation that preceded it.

But only because those who speculated about the existence of a Verizon iPhone have been struck by a new monomania: Speculating about first-year Verizon iPhone sales numbers.

Indeed, the sales estimates are already rolling out, with the consensus so far hovering between nine million and 12 milion.

“Some think 10 million is possible in the calendar year,” Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair told me. “And I think it’s a reasonable assumption–not just because of what we’ve seen on AT&T but because you have three years of pent-up demand from users who are loyal to the Verizon network because of its coverage and reliability.”

Gleacher & Co. analyst Brian Marshall agrees, though he’s betting on sales hitting the top end of the range I mentioned.

“The iPhone on Verizon will sell 12 million units in calendar 2011 assuming there’s a ramp-up similar to the one AT&T experienced in 2007-2008 (i.e., 5 percent penetration of the postpaid subscriber base within five quarters of launch),” he told me, adding that AT&T will see a material decline in its iPhone sales as a result.

Taking a more conservative view of the iPhone’s prospects on Verizon is Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who expects Verizon to activate roughly 25 million smartphones in calendar 2011, of which nine million will be iPhones.

Barclays Capital analyst James Ratcliffe too is betting on that nine-million figure, and of those he expects approximately 500,000 to one million to be purchased by AT&T switchers. Said Ratcliffe, “We don’t believe that the addition of a Verizon iPhone will be a seismic event in the wireless competitive environment, although we do expect it to result in a modest spike in AT&T churn, as customers who love their iPhones but have become unhappy with AT&T’s network take advantage of the alternative.”

PREVIOUSLY:

• Verizon iPhone to Debut With Unlimited Data Plan
• Apple CEO Likely to Appear at Verizon iPhone Event
• Verizon Event Set for Tuesday–iPhone Time

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110110/tired-speculating-about-verizon-iphone-wired-speculating-about-verizon-iphone-sales/feed/ 2 http://allthingsd.com/20110109/verizon-iphone-to-debut-with-unlimited-data-plan/ http://allthingsd.com/20110109/verizon-iphone-to-debut-with-unlimited-data-plan/#comments Sun, 09 Jan 2011 19:05:15 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=55434 When the iPhone finally arrives on Verizon’s network, how will the carrier set it apart from the one that’s been offered by AT&T since it first debuted in 2007?

Here’s one way: By offering it with a wireless service plan free of the data caps used by AT&T.

Sources close to Verizon tell me the carrier will offer the iPhone with an unlimited data plan (presumably the same $30 unlimited plan it offers for other smartphones)–though they wouldn’t say for how long. That should distinguish it a bit more from the iPhone on AT&T, which requires a capped plan for data service.

Not that such differences worry AT&T any. “We think customers will prefer AT&T’s faster speeds and better functionality over a CDMA network device,” a spokesperson told me. And he has a point. AT&T’s UMTS network allows the use of data and voice simultaneously. Verizon’s CMDA network doesn’t–at least not yet. So, initially, Verizon iPhone users won’t be able to use the Web or check email while on a call–something AT&T iPhone users have long been able to do.

All Things D reported Friday that the special event Verizon is holding in New York Tuesday will be the carrier’s long-rumored iPhone announcement.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Apple CEO Likely to Appear at Verizon iPhone Event
• Verizon Event Set for Tuesday–iPhone Time

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110109/verizon-iphone-to-debut-with-unlimited-data-plan/feed/ 12 http://allthingsd.com/20110107/even-verizons-phones-wont-comment-about-the-impending-iphone/ http://allthingsd.com/20110107/even-verizons-phones-wont-comment-about-the-impending-iphone/#comments Fri, 07 Jan 2011 14:45:51 +0000 Ina Fried http://mobilized.allthingsd.com/?p=2019 Verizon Wireless showed off lots of smartphones at its CES press conference on Thursday, but naturally had nothing whatsoever to say about the iPhone, as I am sure will be the case until the day Steve Jobs shows it to the world.

Of course, I didn’t let the company’s silence stand in my way and proceeded to bug several executives, asking about it in all sorts of clever ways (okay, maybe not really that clever.). But, of course, Verizon has lots of practice carefully avoiding all mention of the iPhone or Apple, unless referring to a fruit grown in Washington.

I tried asking Chief Marketing Officer Marni Walden whether Verizon’s network will be strong enough to handle a crush of data demand from the iPhone, but she saw right through me.

“I obviously won’t comment on iPhone at all–rumor and speculation here,” she said. That said, she noted that the company has spent $65 billion over the last 10 years on its network to make sure that any device can run smoothly on it.

Okay, I said, but you know the company’s full roadmap for the year–are you sure that your network will be able to handle all those devices, including perhaps some unannounced ones?

“I am confident we have built a network and invested in a network that will continue to provide customers with the best possible experience,” Walden said.

So there you have it. Well, as much of “it” as you are going to get.

But it turns out that the party line extends beyond the employees and all the way down to the Verizon phones themselves. When handed a demo unit of the new Samsung LTE Android phone, I proceeded to do a Google search for Verizon iPhone–I got an error message saying that that page could not be reached (see image). Now that’s what I call good corporate messaging.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20110107/even-verizons-phones-wont-comment-about-the-impending-iphone/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20101206/analyst-verizon-wants-pseudo-exclusive-on-iphone/ http://allthingsd.com/20101206/analyst-verizon-wants-pseudo-exclusive-on-iphone/#comments Mon, 06 Dec 2010 14:45:25 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=53668 Here’s some news for the Verizon iPhone rumor mill. Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu says Verizon, which is expected to add the iPhone to its smartphone lineup early next year, doesn’t want to see it added to Sprint and T-Mobile’s lineups as well, and is willing to pay to ensure that doesn’t happen.

“We are hearing that Verizon…may be willing to pay for exclusivity to itself and AT&T. For these reasons, Verizon could be more willing to give in to Apple’s terms,” Wu said in a note to clients this morning, adding that the iPhone’s continued success has undoubtedly given Apple the upper hand in its negotiations with the carrier. “Apple is back in the driver’s seat with a record 14.1 million iPhone shipments in the September quarter helping AT&T gain share against Verizon over the last two quarters as Android starts to lose some of its luster (at least at Verizon). In addition, our sources indicate that Verizon does not believe the pending launch of BlackBerry 6 on its network is likely to have a material impact.”

An interesting bit of speculation. If Apple were to win concessions from Verizon and AT&T to keep the iPhone exclusive to those carriers, it might be able to drastically expand the device’s distribution in the States and keep its margins in line at the same time. As Wu writes, “This is important as many, including ourselves, have been concerned that Verzion iPhone economics could be less favorable given the strength of Android and higher cost of components, particularly those associated with CDMA.”

That said, with Google’s Android OS gaining market share so quickly it might be a better move strategically to sacrifice a bit of margin to bring the iPhone to more carriers and temper its rival’s growth.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20101206/analyst-verizon-wants-pseudo-exclusive-on-iphone/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20101203/oops-was-that-a-playstation-phone-i-dropped/ http://allthingsd.com/20101203/oops-was-that-a-playstation-phone-i-dropped/#comments Sat, 04 Dec 2010 00:47:23 +0000 Ina Fried http://mobilized.allthingsd.com/?p=325 We’re not sure if it was left in a bar for someone to find, but a video of the rumored PlayStation phone is now making the rounds.

It’s not the first we’ve seen of the Android-based device. Engadget posted photos last month, though the new video (below) gives more of a feel for the device in action.

Why hadn’t someone already thought of putting a game controller on a phone? Oh, wait, Nokia tried that back with the N-Gage (pictured here, for those who never had the pleasure). Of course, it didn’t have Android and required developers to create all-new games that consumers had to then buy.

It will be interesting to see whether this phone, when and if it makes it to market, is compatible with any other Sony products and if existing Android games can take advantage of the phone’s controller without having to do a big rewrite of their code.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20101203/oops-was-that-a-playstation-phone-i-dropped/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20101019/liveblogging-yahoos-3q-earnings-busy-busy-busy-so-go-away-tim-armstrong/ http://allthingsd.com/20101019/liveblogging-yahoos-3q-earnings-busy-busy-busy-so-go-away-tim-armstrong/#comments Tue, 19 Oct 2010 21:12:27 +0000 Kara Swisher http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=35801

Here we go with the Yahoo third-quarter earnings call starring CEO Carol Bartz, who has some–in the immortal words of Ricky Ricardo–‘splaining to do.

Yahoo turned in a much-needed solid quarterly earnings report, with slightly better-than-expected earnings, although still weak revenue.

Of course, there are all the takeover rumors, the exec departures and fights with partners such as China’s Alibaba Group.

2 pm PT: First on is the lovely investor relations lady, Marta, saying stuff I never pay attention to.

But Bartz came on right away and she sounded subdued and very much on script.

Good idea!

She began by explaining what she has been up to and–once again with feeling–exactly what Yahoo is.

“The key words are innovative, content, media and communications,” she stressed.

Technology is all well and good, but Yahoo is the “largest digital media, content and communications company.”

She also briefly addressed the departure of execs: “Some people leave, some get promoted and some good people arrive.”

Well, you could put such turmoil that matter-of-factly, I suppose.

Bartz then asked the question: “What have we done to re-engineer Yahoo?”

She reeled off a list she has repeated many times before, the point of which was to let us all know she has been mighty busy cleaning up the big mess she had to deal with on arrival.

So lay off, all you naysayers! It’s kind of like what President Barack Obama is saying these days, as he looks forward to huge political losses in the upcoming election.

It’s apparently a disciplined approach. “First you walk, then you run.” Then, she added, you FLY!

Don’t look down, Carol!

She promised to talk about what’s on all our minds–as in the takeover swirl related to AOL, News Corp. and a passel of private equity moneybags circling Yahoo.

2:15 pm: Time for the numbers from CFO Tim Morse, which you can see here.

He was much jauntier than usual. I wonder if that was in the script. Smile with your voice, Tim!

I mostly did not listen to this spiel, as it was a recount of the numbers I already read. But there are some nuggets.

Apparently, for example, revenue for owned and operated search is down because users are clicking on the really good new results from the Microsoft algorithmic search transition, so they are not clicking on paid search as much.

Hmmm….I wonder what happens when they get great.

Then it was on to earnings and stock repurchases, designed to goose the shares, which Yahoo considers undervalued.

So do investors.

Next, he moved on to the outlook, which was weak.

And Morse also noted the uncertainty that has to do with the search and online advertising alliance transition. “Caution is warranted,” said Morse.

“We’re pleased with our third-quarter results,” summarized Morse, seemingly ignoring the revenue issue.

2:31 pm: Bartz was then back on discussing the search alliance and the rocky relationship with China’s Alibaba Group. Rocky is my word and actually is also Alibaba’s.

At least all is well with Microsoft, Yahoo’s one-time nemesis.

It has been a big transition, of course, Bartz noted. Indeed.

Then Bartz went out of her way in praising Alibaba CEO Jack Ma, whom many sources said she has treated shabbily in the past.

It is “a good productive business relationship,” said Bartz.

Other than that, she politely suggested we all butt out of what Yahoo is going to do with the asset, a 29 percent stake of Alibaba.com worth $3.1 billion, according to the company.

Finally, Bartz said Yahoo had “potential” and promised a payoff to shareholders in the months ahead.

That would be nice.

2:38 pm: Time for Q&A.

The first question was about the search revenue growth. Soon!

The next was about search revenue and display advertising and a left-field query on engagement on smartphones.

Same answer, and also people will use Yahoo on any screen.

Next question was on display growth. Same answer.

Will any of these analysts ask the good questions about takeover rumors and other thorny management issues?

Wait, finally there came a sheepish request for clarification about the rumors–well, they are real, so realmors–about takeover plans by private equity folks, along with AOL’s Tim Armstrong.

“As tempting as it is to tell you what I really think, you know I can’t comment,” said Bartz, who really sounded like she wanted to comment.

Give in, Carol! In the words of Oscar Wilde, which is BoomTown’s operating motto: “I can resist everything except temptation.”

Nope, she will not utter a word about “hypothetical this and hypothetical that.”

Instead, the boilerplate: “We like our strategy, we like our progress, and that’s what we’re focused on.”

Next, more questions about revenue weakness. Bartz blamed it all on the drag of search revenue. “The main drag on our growth has been search revenue,” she noted.

She said it will get better once the whole transition kicks in.

Bartz did sound convincing, especially when she noted it was part of a six-year trend in decline in search. By the end of 2011, she promised, it will all be different.

But, in the immortal words of Clint Eastwood in “Dirty Harry”: “You’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?”

Now, a question about a “bloated” work force. Yahoo employee count is up seven percent, although costs are down 12 percent.

Morse: “No, we’re not bloated.”

Bartz took a question about competition in the display market, as in Yahoo is going to get smacked by rivals, such as Google.

“There is always competition and competition only makes us better,” said Bartz. “We’re running very fast and not going to give up this leadership in display very easily.”

Given Google’s inroads here, she better run faster than the Road Runner.

The last question was about monetization of mobile.

Lots of pretty, empty words from Bartz, especially since Yahoo does not have a really competitive offering compared to Google and Apple.

It should be added that both Google and Apple smoked it in terms of revenue growth in their quarterly earnings this week.

Also, I hear that Facebook social networking site is growing pretty quickly.

And it ended, with nary a decent question from Wall Street analysts about the clear turmoil at the long-troubled Silicon Valley icon and answers about what Bartz is going to do to address it.

The media is in listen-only mode for these calls, which is a shame, since I for one would love to listen to what Bartz has to say.

I know you’re busy and all, Carol, but perhaps you can talk over dinner soon?

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20101019/liveblogging-yahoos-3q-earnings-busy-busy-busy-so-go-away-tim-armstrong/feed/ 5 http://allthingsd.com/20101018/fearless-leader-bartz-out-of-foxhole-reaching-out-and-remaining-calm-until-tomorrow-that-is/ http://allthingsd.com/20101018/fearless-leader-bartz-out-of-foxhole-reaching-out-and-remaining-calm-until-tomorrow-that-is/#comments Mon, 18 Oct 2010 16:30:50 +0000 Kara Swisher http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=35675

Thus spake Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz:

“There sure are a lot of folks writing about us. There are some pretty incredible stories out there. I’m not letting it distract me, and you shouldn’t either.”

That’s from her Friday note to Yahoo employees ast week, sent to me many times, in the wake of more rumors of a variety of takeover plots emerged and more folks writing–including the all-the-late-news-that’s-fit-to-print New York Times, who seems to have just realized the Internet giant might be “adrift.”

Wrote the Times:

“The board of Yahoo, the ailing Web portal, hired Carol A. Bartz as chief executive to apply a little shock therapy.

Now, nearly two years later, the patient is still suffering from many of the same symptoms: a stagnant business, shrinking market share and a shortage of innovation.”

BoomTown had no idea whatsoever until the Times declared it so!

In any case, I much preferred Bartz’s sassy note to employees, in which she called herself “your fearless leader,” rather than from another recent note in which she described herself as writing from a foxhole.

Plus, this one had some news nuggets, such as:

That “Microsoft should be powering paid search in the U.S. and Canada by the end of this month, right on schedule.”

And that, “on Monday, we’re going Alpha in four countries on a totally new platform for global News,” dumping nine different News code bases “with ‘new’ News we can bring a new site up in a month.”

Of course, Bartz had to do a significant pretzel to manage her sunny assessment of the Yahoo homepage outage last week as a good thing.

“Several outlets indicated their surprise at such a major issue with one of the world’s largest Websites, noting the importance of Yahoo! to the daily lives of users and the fact that Yahoo! is never down,” she wrote.

Except it, um, was down.

Water under the bridge, it seems, as multiple sources tell me Bartz has been spending a lot of time reaching out to many outside Yahoo in a much friendlier manner, perhaps to tamp down the negative chatter about her salty demeanor.

She’ll likely be doing more of that quite publicly tomorrow, after the markets close, when she presumably will lead the call with investors after the company’s third-quarter earnings are announced.

Wall Street consensus is that Yahoo’s net income will rise to 15 cents a share from 13 cents a year ago and and revenues will be a flattish $1.13 billion.

Investors are likely to react badly to any lesser results, especially after Google’s stellar performance last week and the likely terrific one by Apple today.

Most of all, analysts will be especially attuned to how Bartz positions the recent spate of top exec departures and her vision for growth at the Silicon Valley icon.

There might be a clue in her note to Yahoos, which she ended with a well-used metaphor: “Let’s all look out the windshield, not the back window. That’s how we move forward.”

Personally, when driving, I always look at both, since I find it safer to always be able to see exactly what’s coming and what’s going.

.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20101018/fearless-leader-bartz-out-of-foxhole-reaching-out-and-remaining-calm-until-tomorrow-that-is/feed/ 6 http://allthingsd.com/20101013/yahoos-stock-acts-like-its-in-play-because-it-kind-of-is/ http://allthingsd.com/20101013/yahoos-stock-acts-like-its-in-play-because-it-kind-of-is/#comments Wed, 13 Oct 2010 22:34:12 +0000 Kara Swisher http://kara.allthingsd.com/?p=35503

Make no mistake–there are no definitive offers on the table to do a variety of takeover deals of Yahoo by either private equity moneybags or from big media giants such as News Corp. or smaller Web firms such as AOL.

But that does not mean that major players are not circling Yahoo (YHOO) and assessing the situation aggressively, a fact reflected in the rise in the Internet giant’s stock price today based on the many rumors swirling around it.

Despite being news to some, BoomTown had previously written about all these various scenarios, including interest from News Corp. and AOL, after the recent departure of a trio of top Yahoo media and sales execs brought into sharp relief the pressure that CEO Carol Bartz is under to turn around the company.

Yahoo shares were up almost six percent to close at $15.25, a high of late. It is up to $16.20 in after-hours trading.

According to sources close to the situation, that’s because big PE firms such as Silver Lake Partners, as well as News Corp. (NWS), AOL (AOL) and others, all have their PowerPoints and speadsheets opened up to try to figure out if there is a deal to be made to buy all or a piece of Yahoo in the wake of corporate turmoil, slow revenue growth and weak stock under the leadership of CEO Carol Bartz.

Sources said the key players in the growing soap opera are the execs who run Yahoo-affiliated companies in Japan and China. That would be Masayoshi Son of Yahoo Japan and Jack Ma of the Alibaba Group.

Yahoo owns big and lucrative stakes in both companies, assets which make up a big part of the company’s current valuation.

The sale of those stakes is what has some investors interested, since–if thorny tax issues can be solved–it would make the purchase of part or all of the well-known Silicon Valley company very inexpensive in relative terms.

Sources added that any approach would have to be nonhostile, since Yahoo still has some stringent antitakeover provisions in place from a hostile attempt a few years ago by Microsoft (MSFT).

But alternate CEOs to Bartz are part of the ruminations:

As I wrote two weeks ago, which was again reported today:

Most frequently mentioned by big investors in Yahoo: AOL (AOL) and its CEO Tim Armstrong.

Armstrong, said sources, has not shied away from the idea of Yahoo acquiring AOL and installing him as CEO with Bartz as chairman. AOL’s valuation is just $2.65 billion.

Although AOL has also been trying to turn itself around and is in a much less powerful position than Yahoo, Wall Street likes Armstrong’s story for AOL as a modern-day media and media distribution company.

“At least he has a narrative that is believable,” said one big investor in both companies. “Bartz has no vision.”

Among the other credible candidates most mentioned: News Corp. digital head Jon Miller, if the media giant were part of any deal, and Juniper Networks (JNPR) CEO Kevin Johnson, who was the architect of the failed acquisition of Yahoo by Microsoft.

What’s interesting here is what the board–and, most specifically, co-founder and former CEO Jerry Yang–is doing now.

For certain, it is receiving an incoming flood of negative communications from big shareholders, most of whom are unhappy with Bartz’s management. One big investor recently told board members that their continued inaction in the face of all the trouble was unsettling.

One big event coming up is the third-quarter earnings report by Yahoo on Tuesday, after the market closes.

If Yahoo’s sales remain as flat as they were in the second quarter, even with improved earnings, there will be even more scrutiny of Bartz to find growth.

And if Yahoo misses? Watch out.

One way might be via a big acquisition. Yahoo has recently been contemplating the local space, especially social discounting phenom Groupon. But the price would have to be high, sources said–well above $2 billion in cash and stock.

Would such a bold move be enough to keep the predators of Yahoo at bay? We’ll see, as the purple world turns.

A Yahoo PR person declined to comment on the stock rise.

Of course, rising on speculation, a higher stock is a problem for acquirers, as it makes Yahoo more expensive. Still, sources said a Yahoo deal of about $20 a share is entirely “doable.”

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20101013/yahoos-stock-acts-like-its-in-play-because-it-kind-of-is/feed/ 3 http://allthingsd.com/20101006/apple-prepping-verizon-ready-cdma-iphone/ http://allthingsd.com/20101006/apple-prepping-verizon-ready-cdma-iphone/#comments Wed, 06 Oct 2010 21:30:49 +0000 John Paczkowski http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/?p=50274 Apple (AAPL) is reportedly building a CDMA version of its iPhone that may be headed to Verizon. “People briefed by Apple” tell The Wall Street Journal that the company plans to begin mass producing the device later this year with an eye toward a first quarter 2011 launch. Note that the Journal’s report says only that a CDMA iPhone is in the works, not that it’s destined for Verizon (VZ).

An interesting bit of news, particularly given recent remarks from Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg that seemed to suggest the iPhone wasn’t headed to the carrier’s network in the near future. “We would love to carry [the iPhone], but we have to earn it,” he said earlier this month. “I can’t speak for Apple.”

Misdirection. Honesty? Perhaps the next Verizon iPhone rumor (sigh) will shed a bit more light….

UPDATE: The Journal has updated its story to say, explicitly, that Verizon will sell the iPhone. Evidently, the company’s won the right to carry it.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20101006/apple-prepping-verizon-ready-cdma-iphone/feed/ 0