In fact, Caris & Co. analyst Sandeep Aggarwal says he expects Kinect to generate about $2 billion in gross revenue for the Xbox ecosystem. Beyond sales of Kinect itself, the controller is also driving sales of most everything else Xbox related. In Aggarwal’s view, Kinect offers four distinct benefits to Microsoft:

1. Better material attach rate for the 45 million Xbox installed base
2. Higher adoption and market share gain for the console itself
3. An uptick from the sale of new titles
4. Lower attrition and higher gross new subscriber growth for Xbox Live users

“As expected, the launch of Kinect increased noticeably the overall buzz around Xbox and helped improve the adoption of the console,” he concludes. “Just before the launch, Microsoft increased its forecast for worldwide sales from 3 million to 5 million by the end of the year. This forecast seems conservative now, given the strong reception.”

So, a 50-50 chance for a deal. Sounds about right, with Carol Bartz the wild card that could swing the odds as quickly and easily as she drops the F-bomb and with Microsoft as the desperate gambler looking to win back the deed to the search market it lost. Said Citi’s Mark S. Mahaney, “Although we view the likelihood of a major transaction as unlikely near-term, we continue to view Yahoo as the only logical long-term acquisition target for any company seeking scale in Internet advertising.”

And it will hurt some Internet companies more than others.

“Should the economy run into a recession, this would be only the second downward economic cycle for the Internet. Each Internet company is at a different phase of its evolution,” Aggarwal added. “We believe that a possible recession will be felt harder by those companies that have been delivering extremely high organic growth rates, have high operating leverage, or are approaching minimum operating scale levels in 2008-2009.”

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Quite a gimmick, though Live Search Senior Director Frederick Savoye says SearchPerks, like Cashback, is actually part of Microsoft’s (MSFT) grand plan to “innovate the [search] business model.” If that’s so, the company might want to rethink it. Because Cashback really hasn’t done much to bolster Microsoft’s laggard search service, which remains a very distant third in the search market. According to Nielsen Online’s MegaView search ranking for August, searches on MSN/Windows Live declined 23.8 percent year-over-year. Its August 2008 share of the search market: 10.7 percent.

A 23.8 percent YoY fall in searches doesn’t seem like much of an innovation to the search business model. And with its search market share in decline, Microsoft clearly needs something more than a steady stream of gimmicks to stem the bleeding. Said Collins Stewart Internet analyst Sandeep Aggarwal: “Internal initiatives at [Microsoft] need time to lift off and prove their merit, but sooner or later the company will have to face the realities and decide again if a combination with [Yahoo] can speed the process.”

Aggarwal says trend reversal in FX “will put $22 million” of “negative pressure on Google’s gross margin” on a sequential basis, and will provide only a $132 million boost on a year-over-year basis, versus $248 million in Q2 and $202 million in Q1.

Aggarwal, who maintains a Buy rating and $615 price target on the stock, says that the currency shift “is not a thesis changer, but a noteworthy trend reversal to watch for.”

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