Yahoo will announce its $1.1 billion all-cash acquisition of the Tumblr blogging service this morning, said sources, likely just before the markets open.

That means: Very, very soon.

(Update: Looks like sooner than very soon — Yahoo officially said it promised not to screw up Tumblr at 5 am PT.)

But Wall Street likes the deal so far. Yahoo shares were up in pre-market trading this morning, close to 2 percent, to reach $27. The stock of the Silicon Valley Internet giant closed Friday at $26.52.

After the announcement of the news AllThingsD already told you about several times over the past few days, let the opinions begin over a range of the entirely unknowable right now, including:

Whether it is a good deal, or whether Yahoo has just bought themselves GeoCities 2.0; whether Tumblr’s tetchy young audience would bolt at the Yahoo ownership.

Whether Tumblr CEO David Karp — he of the sad-puppy-dog eyes and fantastically floppy hair — would wither or bloom under the leadership of Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer.

And, of course, who got rich in the whole shebang.

Karp, for sure, garnering $250 million in cash.

So sit tight to get the final word and all the quotes praising the deal as the best thing since, well, Instagram got picked up by Facebook for a mere $1 billion. Apparently, $1.1 billion is the new $1 billion.

We will cover the news, of course, despite not being invited to Yahoo parties (and somehow we’ll survive).

Groupon said it had revenue of $601.4 million, up eight percent, in the first quarter, and earnings of three cents. Those profits were in line with Wall Street expectations, but sales were better than the expected $590 million at the daily deals site.

The stock was up nearly 12 percent in after-hours trading to $6.21. Shares have risen 42.6 percent in the last six months, although that’s down 43.9 percent from a year ago.

There was no news of the search for a new leader for Groupon, which fired its CEO, co-founder Andrew Mason, in the quarter.

On a conference call later, co-CEO Ted Leonsis said that Groupon’s board had formed a search committee, but that it was “not in a hurry” to find a new company head.

But, in a statement, co-CEO Eric Lefkofsky said: “We are encouraged by our results, as our local revenues accelerated and our margins improved over the prior quarter.”

Anything up is good news for the suffering Groupon, which has been pilloried by Wall Street since its late 2011 IPO, although sentiment has improved since Mason’s ouster.

Gross billings, which is the amount consumers buy from Groupon overall, without subtracting payments to merchants, were up four percent, to $1.04 billion, on strong growth in North America. Sales were off internationally, though, by 9 percent.

International business, which has a bigger active customer base than North America, was the cause of much of Groupon’s declines, a problem execs have been trying to address with a new “One Playbook” strategy to consolidate systems.

On the conference call, COO Kal Raman called the situation “a tale of two Groupons.”

On a GAAP basis, Groupon had a loss of one cent, from two cents in the same period a year ago.

Groupon also said North American transactions on mobile devices accounted for 45 percent of the overall number, up from 30 percent last year, while email fell to less than 45 percent of the deals sold.

On a less happy note, Groupon said that its outlook for the second quarter would be below consensus.

Here’s the the Chicago-based Groupon’s official press release, as well as some tasty financial slides, so you can read it all for yourself:

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Demand Media, the online content company, said it had earned nine cents on an adjusted basis in the first quarter, on revenues of $100.6 million, topping Wall Street estimates of eight cents on $99.6 million in sales. On a fully diluted basis, earnings were one cent a share, or $700,000, compared to a loss of two cents, or $1.8 million, in the three months compared to a year ago.

“Strong growth from our owned & operated content and media properties drove our Q1 results, highlighting the unique capabilities of our content discovery, creation and distribution platform. Further, we accelerated our paid content strategy with the acquisition of Creativebug, a premier online destination for arts and crafts instruction, which will provide our large eHow crafts audience with an expanded learning experience. In addition, we signed up over 400 resellers to our new gTLD tools and received more than two million expressions of interest for domains to be registered with new gTLDs,” said Richard Rosenblatt, chairman and CEO of Demand Media in a statement. “We are excited about the distinct long-term growth opportunities for both of our businesses.”

Demand’s eHow site seems to have driven a lot of the gains in the content area.

Demand shares rose in trading yesterday by close to two percent, to close at $8.58, also its stock is down 7.6 percent for the year.

The company did not mention the planned split of its registar and content business that it announced in the last quarter in the current results, which might be covered on the conference call the Santa Monica, Calif. company will have with analysts at 2 pm PT.

In its last earnings release for the fourth quarter, Demand said it was spinning off its domain registrar business from its media one in a bid to better clarify the company to investors.

Since it went public several years ago, there has been some level of difficulty for each part of Demand to easily explain itself to Wall Street, given the very different natures of its key — but very different — revenue units. In a statement at the time, Demand said that it was “our intent to spin off our registrar business and separate into two independent, publicly traded companies.”

The company noted that the two units “divergent strategic priorities and opportunities” would be better in the new configuration with a pure-play media company and domain services company. At the time, the company said the transaction was expected to take place in the next nine to 12 months, although it required a number of company and regulatory approvals to do the tax-free spin-off to create two different stocks.

In a different kind of transaction, Demand had talked a little more than a year ago to a private equity company about taking the company private. The effort was abandoned, in which Boston-based Thomas H. Lee Partners would have purchased Demand for a price of up to $1.2 billion, due to a number of challenges. Its current market valuation is now about $744 million.

Until we hear more about the spin-off plans from Demand execs, here’s the full release from Q1 to peruse:

1Q 13 FINAL RELEASE

Samsung’s stock trades on the South Korean stock exchange, so it’s not often mentioned in the typical Apple vs. Samsung smartphone smackdown story. But it’s worth mentioning, because the big picture story here really isn’t one in which Samsung beats Apple into submission.

So consider this: According to figures pulled together by Bespoke Investment Group and helpfully flagged by Tiernan Ray over at Barrons, Apple’s share price has risen 5,749 percent over the last decade. Meanwhile, Samsung’s stock has increased just 373 percent. It’s only since March of 2012 that Samsung shares have outperformed Apple’s; they’re up 22 percent, Apple’s are down 27 percent.

Yes, Samsung plays in far, far more markets than Apple. And no, you can’t even buy Samsung shares in the United States (no American depositary receipt). So there are plenty of caveats here (Past performance does not guarantee future returns!). Still, it’s an interesting comparison given the rivarly between the two companies. As Bespoke notes, “Even with its recent pullback, Apple has crushed Samsung over the last ten years.”

True. Not that that will temper the market’s “what have you done for me lately” view of Apple’s performance. Fun comparison to consider, though.

According to a regulatory filing by Yahoo, its CEO Marissa Mayer got a $1.12 million bonus, as part of a compensation package she got when she came to the Silicon Valley Internet giant.

It was based on serving a half of a year. But, as has been previously reported, Mayer has an annual salary of $1 million, and is eligible for a $2 million annual bonus, based on meeting certain performance goals set by its board.

In addition, she has gotten numerous stock and options compensation, worth $56 million, including $14 million to make up for the loss of earnings when she left Google, where she was a top exec for many years. There are also other possible bonuses, depending on results.

The million-dollar payment is probably considered pretty much a bargain by investors, since the shares of Yahoo have risen close to 50 percent since she arrived. That’s been based largely on hopes that Mayer can turn the company around, and on the actual stellar performance of its Alibaba Group stake in China.

CFO Ken Goldman, who joined in October, was not eligible for a bonus in 2012, but was awarded a discretionary one of $100,000 nonetheless. He is also eligible for a 90 percent bonus in 2013, based on a $600,000 annual salary.

Here’s Yahoo’s 8-K filing, which also includes details of Mayer’s severance agreement:

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I like a good dichotomy as much as the next person, which is why I decided to compare the shares of Yahoo with that of Apple over the recent time period.

That’s because in what amounts to a trading-places moment, despite their differences in focus, the pair have had almost polar opposite stock performances of late.

Yahoo, of course, is the famous Internet giant that has been trying to turn itself around for a very long time; Apple is the Silicon Valley phenom that has been wowing the sector for just as much time with endless innovative products.

Typically, that state of affairs has meant that Apple has enjoyed a rocket ship of a ride from Wall Street investors, while Yahoo has suffered. That’s certainly been true on a five-year basis, with Apple up 244 percent and Yahoo down 21 percent.

But in the last six months, it has been another story altogether. In that time, Apple has been sliding to its lowest price since September, down 35 percent. Meanwhile, Yahoo has surged nearly 50 percent in the time frame.

It’s the same story for the past three months, with Apple down 27 percent and Yahoo up 17 percent; and, the last month, with the Cupertino, Calif.-based device maker down 5 percent and the nearby Sunnyvale Internet portal up 11 percent.

It’s a classic story of hope, with investors counting on Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer to turn the tide at the long-suffering company, while they worry about Apple CEO Tim Cook’s ability to keep the hits coming fast and furious.

Perhaps most ironic? That part of Mayer’s appeal is her continued repetition of Yahoo’s mobile aspirations, although the results in that key arena are still negligible and decidedly nascent. Apple, despite the stock fall-off, still handily dominates mobile money-making and on a massive scale, although increasingly competitive Google Android devices continue to gain ground.

Despite a large uptick in the stock earlier today, Groupon’s fourth-quarter results caused its shares to plunge 23 percent in after-hours trading.

The Chicago-based company said its revenues were $638.3 million in the three months, just below expectation of $640 million and up 30 percent from a year ago.

But the fourth-quarter GAAP loss was 12 cents per share, or $81.1 million, which included a loss of seven cents from a non-operating item. That compares to a 12 cent loss a year ago, but was well over the two cent loss Wall Street had expected.

This comes after Groupon’s third-quarter miss, which puts the fate of CEO Andrew Mason into some question. He and several board members had a bit of a kerfuffle several months ago over this management abilities.

Still, on a conference call on the results today, Mason struck a positive tone on the poor results.

In addition, the company’s guidance was also disappointing, with first-quarter revenue between $560 million and $610 million. That’s much lower than the $650.3 million, that investors were estimating. Groupon also said it would have a possible operating loss in Q1 up to $10 million.

Groupon shares were down to $4.63 after the markets closed, after a nearly eight percent run-up earlier in the day.

Here is the company’s official press release on Q4:

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Sterne Agee’s Arvind Bhatia upgraded Groupon to “buy” from “neutral” this morning, sending the company’s stock up 27 cents, or 5 percent, to $5.56 a share in afternoon trading. At one point in pre-market trading, the stock hit as much as $5.74.

While those gains are significant considering where the shares have been trading for the past few months, the stock overall is still down more than 70 percent since Groupon’s IPO in November.

Bhatia acknowledged how out of sync his upgrade is with the bigger picture: “This is an out-of-consensus upgrade predicated on a more constructive longer-term view of the company,” he wrote in a letter to investors. He also warned that the upgrade was not a reflection of the company’s fourth-quarter results, which are being released on Feb. 27. (Bhatia believes the stock can go as high as $9 over the next 12 months.)

Rather, his thesis is based on the belief that the Chicago company — and therefore its CEO and founder Andrew Mason — can execute on a number of fronts, by turning around its international business and leveraging its mobile commerce foothold. And, even more importantly, he believes that Groupon can evolve beyond its core push business of delivering offers by email to a model where consumers will discover deals on the site through search engines and direct traffic to the site.

In November, I wrote about this evolution to a marketplace approach, which Groupon was rolling out in Chicago and New York. At the time, Jeff Holden, the company’s SVP of Product, explained that Groupon had mastered serendipity by sending offers to people they thought might like them.

But now they are trying to become a destination where people shop for things they already know they are looking to buy. In a handful of markets, consumers can now browse and search a catalog of offers — they don’t disappear after one day. Categories span everything from local deals, including auto, restaurants and spas, to products, like bed linens and pet care.

At the time, Groupon said it had amassed 27,000 deals in North America as part of the company’s new direction. That will be a critical number to watch, since having a lot of inventory will be a crucial component to its success.

Bhatia claims that the benefit to this approach is that the deals can now be marketed effectively through search engines, like Google and Bing, as opposed to sending emails (which people are tiring of). “Currently less than 5 percent of Groupon’s revenue comes from search engine marketing,” he wrote. “In contrast, an estimated 25 percent of queries on search engines are local and 50 percent of mobile searches are for local, which suggests meaningful untapped opportunity.”

Rakesh Agrawal, a business consultant and outspoken critic on Groupon, disagreed with the company’s prospects of using Google and Bing to drive sales going forward. “Search marketing is a much more complicated sell,” he said. “Even if it were successful, the revenue they could generate pales in comparison with what daily deals were throwing off.”

Groupon is expecting fourth-quarter revenue ranging between $625 million and $675 million, an increase of 27 percent to 37 percent, compared with the same period a year earlier. It expects income from operations to be between breakeven and $20 million, compared with a loss of $15 million in the fourth-quarter 2011. Analysts are forecasting a loss of two cents a share.

Earlier today Yahoo reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates, on still-flattish revenue.

Still, up is up, even if it is not really that much up, so Wall Steet bid up shares of the Silicon Valley Internet giant in after-hours trading.

Now it’s onto the conference call with investors for CEO Marissa Mayer:

2:02 pm: Before the call, you can hear Mayer complaining about the goofy music played during the pre-conference call waiting time.

“We have to get better music,” she says to some minion. “This is not good music.”

Music to my ears! I say we get Beyoncé, lipsyncing or not.

The call starts quickly after that, with the ever-eager Mayer leaping right in with the fourth-quarter news, which is not all that bad.

It’s the first full year of growth in a while — though not the first quarter-to-quarter increase — even if it is only a very modest two percent increase.

That compares to industry-wide gains in revenue of many, many, many times that, but for Yahoo this is cause for a parade. A small parade, with good music, but a parade nonetheless.

“It’s hard to believe this is only my first full quarter here at Yahoo,” says Mayer in an upbeat tone.

She notes that her focus on product excellence and user experience was continuing, with some “early positive trends” in both products and people.

Mayer then list a series of moves, from the free food and better smartphones for employees to the addition of well-regarded entrepreneur Max Levchin to the board to the refreshes of Yahoo Mail and Flickr to the acquisition of some sassy new mobile startups.

Mayer also notes that the company under her purview had removed “385 of highest priority obstacles,” although she did not name any specifics.

I imagine what No. 332 is: Switching out the iceberg lettuce at the URL cafeteria on Yahoo’s Sunnyvale, Calif. HQ campus with some tasty organic mesclun as they have at Google, from whence Mayer came.

Better roughage means better returns!

2:14 pm: Mayer turns the call over to CFO Ken Goldman, also a newbie. As usual, he runs through the numbers that are already in all the releases already. But I am enjoying his New England accent, hoping he will say the slight increase in revenue was “wicked” good.

Goldman, in fact, calls the revenue increase “modest,” which is true, although it sounds like “mah-dist.”

What’s not mah-dist is how much stock Yahoo has bought back, using its windfall from the recent sale of assets in China. It’s $1.45 billion, with more that that left to use for more share buybacks. That should keep Yahoo’s stock up nicely.

Goldman also talks about increases in the company’s search business, although notes that the Microsoft relationship is still not the most fantastic.

He speaks more effusively of Yahoo’s Asian partners, including Yahoo! Japan and China’s Alibaba Group. It’s deserved, since they have been the company’s treasure trove against its meh core performance in recent years.

Not so tasty is the problem Yahoo has with a big-money contract dispute in Mexico, which Goldman reiterates is “without merit.”

2:28 pm: Goldman moves onto Yahoo’s cash position, which is strong and which he says is going to be used to make the company better.

Mayer is back on board, talking about key focuses over multiple years.

She says Yahoo needs a “chain reaction of growth,” which needs to be fueled by a dozen new products that become a daily habits for consumers to increase usage and other metrics.

A nuclear bomb explosion is not exactly the best metaphor for a company’s turnaround, but in Yahoo’s case it is probably a pretty good one, given how stubborn its decline has been.

Mayer then switches the metaphor to one she recently used about “returning to the roots” of Yahoo.

Actually, mixing the metaphors, Yahoo has to blast some significant roots that have gotten in the way of its innovation over the years.

“The best is yet to come,” promises Mayer, in what she says will be a multi-year effort.

Now onto questions from the analysts!

2:40 pm: The first question is about commercialization of its products. Mayer answers she is both pro-advertising and anti-ad — meaning they are good when they add to user experience and bad when they do not.

There will be slight margin declines due to this, which is the real point of the query, which Goldman says will not be too impacted.

The next question is on the weaker performance in display ads and whether mobile ads can ramp up quick enough or not.

Yahoo is not breaking out mobile revenue numbers as yet — it’s not impressive as yet, so that’s what’s going on there — although Mayer points to the number of mobile users increasing to 200 million now.

As to the declines in display, Mayer gives a non-answer, but it is likely due to big changes that new Yahoo COO Henrique De Castro has put into place in the way it sells ads and which AllThingsD.com previously reported on. Mayer earlier in the call had confirmed those changes.

The fact of the matter — which is just what the analyst was asking about — is that Mayer simply has to improve display revenue, which is Yahoo’s core business.

Mayer then addresses the issue of not providing usage metrics anymore. Yahoo has withheld a lot of them since she has taken over, and she says it is because they are not indicative of metrics that, well, she thinks you need to know.

Instead, Mayer points to other metrics that she feels are better, such as number of ads sold and price per click on search.

Speaking of search, the next question is about that. What can Mayer say — and she does — but that Yahoo must also improve in that area. Indeed, it is lucrative low-hanging fruit for the company.

Here comes an interesting observation she makes based on a question of mobile versus desktop, which Mayer says should not be separated as two areas as consumers don’t think that way.

Yahoo is tuning up a dozen products, she says, having started with Yahoo Mail and its Flickr photo-sharing app.

2:54 pm: Mayer is not saying which of this dirty dozen is next to get a makeover.

“We’re investing in small, nimble, excellent teams,” says Mayer, who then tries to reference a famous Margaret Mead quote, but ends up mangling it a bit.

It is, for the record: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed, citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”

This is true, which might make some Yahoo staffers nervous, since Mayer’s recent stack ranking of them means she can start on employee layoffs anytime she likes to separate the wheat from the chaff.

3:01 pm: Whoo-whee, this is going long and I am getting weary. Mayer has to be some kind of digital Energizer Bunny — she just flew in from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland and moved right into the prep for the Q4 earnings.

Tomorrow, she is presumably off to Las Vegas, where Yahoo’s global sales conference will start and she will doubtlessly be making an appearance.

I am exhausted simply by walking up and down the stairs at my house.

The next question is about third-party publishers and ad tech on mobile.

“Mobile monetization is new for everyone,” she says correctly, making the point that no one knows what is going to shake out.

She uses — as she has used — the example of when people thought search was not a moneymaker until Google proved otherwise.

The problem is, of course, that Google is Yahoo’s biggest rival in this new mobile ad arena, along with Facebook and many others. And Google, as its recent results showed, does know how to make money compared to Yahoo.

The next question is about mobile monetization eating into desktop revenue.

Mayer notes that Yahoo has hired 120 people with computer science degrees in the quarter to work on that area.

In other words, get ready for a symphony of geeks to return Yahoo to relevance.

Would they can pull it off, as that would be a tune worth listening to.

Speaking of something worth listening to, here is a video of Diana Ross’ song, “Chain Reaction,” to enjoy:

Yahoo reported its fourth-quarter earnings today, with earnings higher than expected, but with a continued flattish revenue.

The Silicon Valley Internet giant aid its non-GAAP net profits were 32 cents a share, compared to 25 cents in the same period a year ago. But GAAP net earnings per diluted share were 23 cents in the fourth quarter of 2012, compared to 24 cents last year.

Shares jumped just above four percent in after-hours trading to above $21 a share, given Wall Street analysts were estimating a profit of 27 cents per share in Q4.

Net revenue, without traffic acquisition costs, was expected to be $1.21 billion. It was $1.22 billion and which is essentially flat from a year ago’s $1.17 billion. Search revenue was up nicely, while display sales declined.

Overall the results showed a non-sinking but none-too-powerful ship and not very impressive given almost every other Internet company grew revenue significantly in comparison. For example, Google reported last week that core revenue was up 21 percent in the quarter.

Still, up is up, even if it is not up that much. “I’m proud of Yahoo!’s 2012 and fourth quarter results. In 2012, Yahoo! exhibited revenue growth for the first time in 4 years, with revenue up 2 percent year-over-year,” said Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer in a statement.

In other words, she’ll take two percent, given the nearly persistent revenue declines of recent years. It is progress, of course, even if investors are looking for more robust increases ahead.

Also of note: Yahoo said it repurchased 79.6 million shares at an average price of $18.24 for $1.45 billion in the fourth quarter, which most definitely was one of the reasons for its recent stock run-up.

Yahoo did not release information on consumer engagement and traffic in the Q4 report, which it had done until Mayer took over. As AllThingsD.com had previously reported, most metrics in the quarter were down significantly over last year.

The fourth quarter was the first that was entirely under the new regime of Mayer, who arrive at Yahoo in July from Google.

She’s gotten a big break from Wall Street, which has sent Yahoo’s stock up in recent months on the hopes of her turnaround plans.

Last week, Mayer said the long-suffering Silicon Valley giant would be returning “back to its roots,” as part of an effort to finally turn it around. It’s actually part of a bigger plan which AllThingsD.com had reported on previously, to focus Yahoo on being a center of content discovery on the Web, across multiple devices, with wide-ranging and “very friendly” partnerships with other companies.

More to come at the 2 pm PT, conference call with Mayer, which I will be liveblogging as usual.

Until then, here’s the official press release and deck from Yahoo:

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In afternoon trading, shares were up almost $10, touching $284. A year ago, the stock was sliding toward its 52-week low of $172.

Amazon usually grows at twice the rate of the overall e-commerce market during the fourth quarter. The last three months of 2012 should be no exception.

According to comScore’s final tally for the November-December shopping season, online spending in the U.S. totaled $42.3 billion, which was a 14 percent increase over 2011, but fell short of its expectations. Ahead of the Christmas holiday, comScore was anticipating a 16 percent jump in spending.

So, if it follows form, Amazon’s year-over-year growth should end up around 30 percent.

Amazon is forecasting net sales between $20.25 billion and $22.75 billion, representing a jump of 16 percent to 31 percent.

Youssef Squali, an analyst with Cantor Fitzgerald, wrote in a note to investors today that he is expecting Amazon to report revenue of $22.05 billion, up 27 percent. The consensus by analysts is a little more bullish, at $22.3 billion.

The positive forecasts are expected in part because of the performance by others, most notably eBay and Google, which already reported fourth-quarter earnings. EBay beat analysts’ expectations by a penny, boosted by strong sales from its mobile and marketplaces division (and it, too, was trading at a 52-week high today, with a share price above $56, up more than 2 percent). Likewise, Google’s cost-per-click business increased 2 percent compared to the prior quarter, reversing a long period of declines, partly because of a strong performance by its new Shopping group.

Interestingly, halfway through the month of December, a monster quarter by Amazon was not a done deal.

There were a few signs that sales had been soft due to one concern: Procrastination. As Amazon’s base of Prime users grows, customers are becoming more comfortable delaying purchases, since they know they can get free two-day shipping on qualifying items. Coupled with Amazon’s reputation for on-time delivery, customers were able to wait until Dec. 21 in order to get packages delivered by Christmas Eve.

Another closely watched metric for Amazon will be its profit margins.

Jeff Bezos, the company’s founder and CEO, has been particularly outspoken recently about sacrificing margins for the benefit of generating more free cash flow.

Cantor Fitzgerald’s Squali is anticipating fourth-quarter operating margins of 1.3 percent, but cautions that “we have little visibility into this metric.” Amazon spends a lot of money on building new distribution centers, offering price promotions and free shipping. It is also investing heavily in cloud computing, packaging free video streaming with Amazon Prime, and its hardware division, including Kindle.

Due to those investments, operating margins may be very low.

To that end, Squali says that any commentary by Amazon’s tight-lipped management team on Tuesday will be key for the stock’s performance going forward.

On the whole, analysts are expecting Amazon to generate a profit of 29 cents a share. Amazon left itself a lot of room with its earlier guidance, saying results could be anywhere from an operating loss of $490 million to an operating profit of $310 million, compared with an operating profit of $260 million in the year-ago period.

Tune in after the bell on Tuesday for live coverage of Amazon’s results.

Apple shares slipped below $500 in early morning trading for the first time in nearly a year, after the Nikkei said Japan Display and Sharp have begun reducing production of the liquid-crystal-display panels used in the iPhone 5 amid slower-than-anticipated global sales of the handset. Apple had reportedly planned to order enough LCD panels to build 65 million iPhone 5s this quarter (aside: that is a fantastically large number that should be viewed with at least a modicum of skepticism). But sources told the Nikkei that the company has essentially halved that order (aside: some skepticism merited here as well, perhaps). The Wall Street Journal subsequently issued a similar report.

As of this writing, Apple shares had fallen more than 3 percent to $504.25, having earlier touched $498.51. The decline extends a slide that has dragged Apple’s stock price down almost 30 percent since last fall, when anticipation for the iPhone 5 had pushed it above $700.

It’s worth noting that analysts don’t seem all that concerned by the reports that are freaking investors out today. Consensus among the few I’ve spoken to seems to be that 65 million iPhone 5s in a quarter was unrealistic to begin with, and component-order cuts like this are typical following a big holiday season ramp. As Wells Fargo analyst Maynard Um said, “We believe investors should not put too much merit in the 65 million estimate as (1) order cuts are not new news and (2) the likelihood that Apple would have shipped 65 million iPhone 5’s for the March quarter would have been miniscule, in our opinion, given the large implied sequential ramp into what is typically a seasonally slower quarter.”

The culture-celebrating hijinks continue at Yahoo, it seems.

After free food and smartphones and even dressing up as a Yahoo purple banger, CEO Marissa Mayer now has a high-ranking exec dancing for employee enjoyment.

As part of an effort to improve participation in the annual Yahoo Employee Satisfaction Survey (YESS), Mayer instituted a punishment for the lowest participation rate of any division on her executive staff.

The culprit turned out to be Jackie Reses, EVP of people and development for Yahoo, which includes the unlikely combo of human resources and business development.

Thus, Reses apparently had to dance to the hit K-pop song “Gangnam Style” with her staff at the weekly FYI employee meeting at Yahoo’s Sunnyvale, Calif., HQ on Friday.

Despite having a rep as an intense New Yorker, said one employee, Reses has some “decent moves.” Others agreed.

Also decent was one of the top results of YESS, which showed that employee belief in the future vision of the company was up 32 points year over year.

That’s not a big surprise, given the upward trajectory of Yahoo’s shares of late. But, more to the point, it has a weak comparable in last year’s survey, which painted a picture of a deeply demoralized workplace. That’s because the 2011 YESS questions went out to employees the week that the company fired CEO Carol Bartz, with most of the responses gathered in the ensuing weeks.

Despite the improvement, this year’s YESS also still showed a lot of worry about whether Yahoo leadership can execute, and whether the company can achieve strong results over the long term.

[UPDATE: One reader said the Yahoo survey is now called YEES, the Yahoo Employee Engagement Survey. I could not determine if that name change had been made.]

That’s the question that at least one Wall Street firm was asking, in a downgrade of Yahoo stock today. In dropping Yahoo’s rank to “market-perform,” Sanford C. Bernstein analysts noted worries about its turnaround efficacy, a possibly jarring reorg of its advertising unit, and also whether the future sale of its assets in China’s Alibaba Group can save the day again, as it did for last quarter’s results.

“We think there may be upside from an eventual Alibaba IPO at a valuation much higher than $50B or a Yahoo! core turn-around, but it is hard to have high conviction in either given the facts we currently have,” said the report, in part. “In addition, there is manageable but real downside risk: reorganization (e.g., of the sales force) could be negative for revenues, management could decide to invest in growth now and cut excess later, and MSFT RPS guarantee could expire without a renewal.”

Those are all good questions for investors to ask, of course, although more have been caught up in the hype/hope ahead of actual performance gains.

Still, it’s no sweat to get caught up in digital execs being made to trip the light fantastic for their weak results. So, since I was not there to enjoy Reses’ performance, click here for an also fun-tastic JibJab Gangnam video I made of her.

Case in point: The latest “buy” rating coming from J.P. Morgan Chase, complete with a shiny new price target raised to $35, up six bucks from the firm’s previous figure. That’s courtesy of Doug Anmuth, JPM’s Facebook analyst, who has been bullish on the social giant’s prospects since early on. In his latest research note, Anmuth echoes Facebook’s common refrain: Facebook’s ad prospects are still in the early days.

This comes as Facebook continues trying to convince investors that its mobile monetization strategy will eventually yield strong returns, given consumers’ massive shift to mobile devices in recent years. Facebook isn’t there yet, mind you, as the company still continues to see the lion’s share of its revenue come from desktop ads. But not for long, according to JPM: The firm expects Facebook’s mobile revenue to surpass that of desktop revenue by 2014.

For the time being, Anmuth is impressed with Facebook’s recent inroads. Facebook’s Exchange product makes good use of third-party data; that hopefully should result in better ads being shown to users, and better returns to advertisers overall. And he believes that Facebook’s most recent push into e-commerce with “Gifts” paid off significantly, bringing in a new revenue stream just in time for the holiday season.

Despite the bright outlook from J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — its three largest underwriters — Facebook’s stock hasn’t lived up to initial expectations. Share prices were cut in half during the first six months of trading, down from an opening price of $38 per share.

But Facebook has fared better on the market in recent days, hovering around the $26 to $28 range over the past two months. Shares closed at $26.62 on Monday, the last day of 2012 trading. The bulls expect that number to keep going up in the New Year.

Now Facebook needs to make its own New Year’s resolution: Proving those analysts right.

It seems like a month does not pass without another rumor about when Chinese Internet powerhouse Alibaba Group will have its much-anticipated IPO.

Today, in the latest loosely-sourced report, a newsletter quoted a Chinese-language site on a leaked memo that allegedly said the preparations would begin in the second half of 2013 for a public offering in late 2013 or early 2014.

Maybe not so fast, according to sources close to the situation, who note that incentives in a recent stock buyback with major shareholder Yahoo could drive a public offering to the end of 2015.

The timeframe is not a deadline, of course, but Alibaba benefits more if it does its IPO by then. Sources said the IPO will depend entirely on market timing and there is not a current plan to do so soon.

The news matters a great deal to Yahoo investors, especially because much of its market valuation is still made up of the remaining 22 percent stake it still holds in Alibaba, as well as its assets in Yahoo! Japan.

Yahoo completed the sale of half its stake in Alibaba earlier this year for $7.6 billion, netting the Silicon Valley Internet giant about $4.5 billion — most of which is being used for repurchases of shares.

As Alibaba noted at the time of that deal:

“Under the terms of the agreement with Yahoo!, Alibaba Group has the right to repurchase one-half of Yahoo!’s remaining stake upon a qualifying initial public offering in the future. Yahoo! originally acquired its stake in Alibaba Group in 2005 in exchange for US$1 billion and sale of its Yahoo! China business to Alibaba Group.”

Since then, Alibaba’s value has risen dramatically on a strong performance in its various units, including e-commerce giant Taobao.

At the time of its stock buyback with Yahoo, Alibaba’s value was $40 billion, which some think will rise strongly over the next few years.

That’s no guarantee, of course, and it depends how Alibaba’s business in China and elsewhere fares. That has not stopped some Yahoo investors, in fact, from flogging gigantic Alibaba IPO valuations, despite the fact that the company is mulling whether to keep it lower to avoid a Facebook-like debacle.

And while it’s clear the company is eventually headed for an IPO, those close to the situation said its management is not in any rush, especially with a recent influx of capital from investors such as Silver Lake, DST Global, Temasek and Yunfeng Fund.

“So many rumors have been floated on this IPO and we can expect a lot more until it actually happens,” said one source.

Back at the beginning of 2012, very few people would have picked AOL as the hottest Internet stock of the year.

And yet with only four trading days left, the New York-based portal is up 99.8 percent for the year, which is more than double the 49.4 percent rise in Amazon’s shares for the year to date and slightly less than four times more than Apple’s 28.4 percent.

I included AOL — which got its big lift via a series of deft financial transactions and other rejiggering of the business by CEO Tim Armstrong — in a group of 10 Web stocks, most of which saw decent rises since January 3, 2012.

After AOL and Apple, Netflix saw a 30.2 percent rise, followed by a 21.8 gain by Yahoo, which has only recently risen due to increased investor confidence in new CEO Marissa Mayer.

In contrast, Google — one of the Internet’s most powerful players — only managed a 9.8 percent increase, which was still about double Microsoft’s at a 4.2 percent bump.

That’s a whole lot better than the trio of laggards that tanked in 2012. The best of the worst has been Facebook, which is down just 29 percent. That’s a lot better than earlier this year, mostly due to increased investor confidence about its mobile prospects.

But nothing has been able to lift either Zynga (down 75.2 percent) or Groupon (down 77.6 percent) from the stock doldrums they have been caught in since their IPOs.

It’s the mirror image to AOL’s performance — a situation which could well change. After all, AOL dropped from $23.78 to $15.10 in 2011.

Here’s a pretty comparison chart to look at:

Earlier today in trading, shares of Apple briefly dropped below $500 for the first time since February, largely due to more rating cuts by Wall Street analysts.

The stock did manage to rally later, ending up on a slight rise of 1.8 percent to close at $518.83 for the day.

But the worries are increasing about the usually high-flying stock, which is down almost 26 percent over the last three months. (That said, Apple shares are up just above 28 percent for the year to date.)

Still, analysts are fretting, such as Citigroup, which had only recently initiated coverage with a buy rating for Apple at the end of November. Last night, it moved to a neutral rating and slashed the price target for shares from $675 to $575.

The biggest new worry is the sales of Apple’s latest device, with Citi’s Glen Yeung noting that “near-term supply chain order cuts, while inconclusive in nature, bring into question the strength of iPhone 5.”

Citi is one of several downgrades of late for Apple; today’s included dings from Canaccord Genuity and Pacific Crest Securities.

Now, without another product in the immediate pipeline and fears that the company’s competitiveness in the smartphone market is waning, the Cupertino, Calif., company is in the unique position of needing a new “wow” product in the months ahead to spur a rally.

There are some bright spots, though. Apple said it had sold two million iPhone 5’s over the weekend in China and a new Morgan Stanley report is indicating that iPhone and also iPad demand remain high.

But, while there has been swirl around a new take by Apple related to the television, many investors and also fans (see this great essay by Brightcove CEO Jeremy Allaire) are clearly hoping for even more.

Tonight, new Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer gave her first public interview since becoming the leader of the troubled Silicon Valley Internet giant.

Not to cranky me, of course, but to the much more amenable Fortune magazine writer and editor Pattie Sellers, who hosted the former Google exec at a dinner in Palo Alto, Calif., as part of the magazine’s Most Powerful Women franchise.

Fortune recently put a glamour shot of Mayer on the cover, and Sellers also did a profile. Now, Mayer was ready to sit down to talk about Yahoo and more.

(I wish I could have reported from the event, and almost did. I had initially been invited to the dinner at the Garden Court Hotel for about 100 guests, mostly women. But I was then waitlisted, and then told by Sellers directly that I could not attend, as the editors had decided to close out outside media and only have Fortune staffers covering it.)

Whatever! I have my ways to liveblog it and do it faster than any magazine writer can — and none involve disguising myself as a cater-waiter or solely using the Twitter feed from Fortune. As if!

Here goes:

7:50 pm: After some lovely cocktails, the audience sits down at about 10 tables of nine people and starts in on the salad course.

Soon enough, the night starts off with a speech by a McKinsey partner (and presumable sponsor of the dinner), delivering some stats as part of a study of some sort about how businesses are using — or should be using — social tools.

More than 60 percent of knowledge workers spend time exchanging information … Social can deliver an estimated $1 trillion in value.

Big news! Not! Even! Slightly! Oh dear, please get to the opening act!

Finally, Sellers gives her intro of Mayer.

8:04 pm: Sellers notes that her conference had hosted Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz in 2010 (she was ousted in 2011), and in 2011 had Mayer when she was an exec at Google (she became Yahoo CEO this year).

Now, in 2012, Mayer is top dog at Yahoo, and the youngest CEO in the Fortune 500.

“Why don’t we just call this ‘the most powerful Yahoo dinner,’” jokes Sellers.

Why not!

Mayer — for those who care, and forgive me, since I am fashion-stupid — is wearing a black frock and some heeled Mary Janes. She gets big applause when Sellers notes that Yahoo stock is up 18 percent since Mayer became CEO.

Note: It did go down when she made a shareholder misstep early in her tenure, but has gone up since she repeated mobilemobilemobile with confidence on a recent earnings call that got investors excited about her tenure.

8:08 pm: By the way, Mayer put in a call for people to vote for her as Time magazine’s Person of the Year (she is on the list of nominees — more kudos from a Time Inc. property).

Mayer starts off with basic PR messaging that she trotted out previously on the recent earnings call, around how she wants Yahoo to be focused on “delighting and engaging users” and how it is a brand that touches people every day.

Therefore, its products need to be inspiring and delightful.

Daily delight! This is the buzzword.

Also, she notes, Yahoo should be the bestest place to work.

As apparent proof of that, Mayer says that all Research In Motion BlackBerry smartphones have been banished, and that Yahoos will be using Apple’s iPhones, Google’s Android phones and Microsoft’s Windows phones.

This has been endlessly reported, even though most other Internet companies do this, but it’s a good line, anyway.

8:12 pm: By the way, iPhones are the most popular with Yahoo employees.

News at 11! (I will add that iPhones are the most popular with the Swisher boys, too, and — irony alert — one of their moms works at Google.)

Sellers then asks about what makes a good product, which is precisely why the product-savvy Mayer was brought in to fix Yahoo.

Says Mayer: “Acute user need.”

I acutely need doughnuts. Does this count?

Also, says Mayer, products have to be created in a way that is “frictionless and beautiful,” and that the offering cannot get in the consumer’s way.

Sellers asks her to name a great product. Mayer notes that she was not talking acquisitions, but quickly namechecks the iPhone and Google.

Since those companies’ market caps are a billionty times bigger than Yahoo’s, she def cannot acquire anything there.

8:17 pm: Mayer also apparently likes some kind of luxury paper made in Germany that looks like velvet. It’s Gmund, by the way.

The topic moves on to Flickr, the once hip photo-sharing service that Yahoo bought and proceeded to ignore. Meanwhile, Instagram.

Mayer says that Yahoo needs to focus on the “global suite” services that are excellent, and on executing them well.

She points out Yahoo’s fantasy football service, mentioning its recent breakdown on game day that sent fans into a tizzy.

It’s a they-love-us-so-much-they-hate-us point.

Yahoo will not do things like online maps, though, Mayer says, noting that where Yahoo cannot compete, it should partner.

Sellers asked about acquisitions.

Mayer: Mobilemobilemobile! (It worked before!)

8:22 pm: Mayer then mentions the importance of small teams that work together, such as its recent Stamped purchase.

She notes that the bigger and more strategic opportunities are around advertising technology. Calling the Rubicon Project!

Mayer veers away from a question about layoffs, a sad Yahoo tradition. I have reported previously that she will make cuts via performance reviews.

At Yahoo, she says, it’s now about performance, not potential: “No offense to potential, but what we really care about now is performance.”

No offense taken!

Also, everyone’s goals will be posted on the Yahoo Web site for everyone to see.

Oh, wait, there will surely be offense taken by those lazy potential people at Yahoo.

Mayer does add that Yahoo should be a “growth company,” and not one defined by cuts.

8:28 pm: “The consumer Internet is growing, and we need to invest,” she says.

To achieve this will be a hard job, and will take multiple years, she adds.

Sellers asks about the Disney turnaround, which Mayer is apparently fascinated with. Mayer does indeed love Disney.

Who doesn’t? (Well, me, but I am an outlier.)

Speaking of Disney, one of its directors, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, sent regrets, but has emailed a question from its board meeting in New York.

Sandberg once worked at Google with Mayer, though the pair is still not working on a search engine together.

Sandberg asks what was most surprising to Mayer about taking over at Yahoo.

Mayer says she thought the job would be hard, and her new baby would be fun. Mayer had her first child at the end of September.

“The job is fun, and the baby is easy,” says Mayer.

Sellers wants to know how Mayer gets it all done. The answer: “Ruthlessly prioritize.”

She notes that that’s why she has not talked to the media at all, and why she will not be talking after this event.

(Well, I guess I will go back to not waiting by the phone for Yahoo PR to call back. Hi Anne! — also looking forward to not getting the holiday media party invite, which is no prob as the Googlers are throwing one the same night and they usually have organic arugula picked by elves they employ that’s acutely delicious.)

Then, as a Wisconsin Green Bay Packers fan, Mayer does her version of the famous Vince Lombardi quote: “God. Family. Yahoo.”

Cheesehead moment! And Mayer and I have so much in common! Mine is: Dog. Family. Yahoo.

8:33 pm: Sellers throws in one more question from famed investor Warren Buffett, who apparently wants to know what, if Mayer was not CEO of Yahoo, would she want to run?

Not Berkshire Hathaway! Mayer says she would build something herself.

It seems as if that is what she is doing at Yahoo, so we await the result.

Until then, Mayer’s mum. So to speak.

According to sources close to the situation, several Groupon board members have been seriously discussing making major leadership changes at the Chicago-based daily deals company, including bringing in a more experienced CEO to take over for co-founder Andrew Mason.

The board of Groupon has a regularly scheduled meeting later this week; sources said such management issues are likely to be discussed there, due to increasing frustration by some directors about the novice CEO’s performance so far.

To be clear, a move to replace Mason is not likely to happen immediately, if at all. And, in any case, any changes are likely to be done with his involvement. In addition, Mason also has support on the eight-member board — director and former AOL exec Ted Leonsis has always been a key mentor to him, for example.

But it has become obvious over the last months that a substantive rift has been developing between Groupon’s key players.

That has centered on Mason’s co-founder and Groupon executive chairman, Eric Lefkofsky, and board member and co-founder Brad Keywell. They, as well as several other directors, have been urging Mason to be more aggressive and public about the company’s turnaround efforts, sources said.

“The question is not whether Andrew is a good guy, but whether Groupon needs an Eric Schmidt,” said one person close to the situation, referring to the former Google CEO who was brought in to work closely with the company’s two founders. “And there’s been a lot more pressure now on the board to consider this seriously.”

The thoughtful and affable Mason — who has been the heart and soul of Groupon’s quirky culture and innovative product strategy — has indeed sometimes seemed to be in over his head in terms of leadership once the stakes got higher and the pressure increased after its IPO was announced last June.

While the company’s struggles have been well known for a while now, discussions about Mason’s tenure as CEO have increased as its stock has dropped precipitously. That has prompted its directors and management to seek to find a way to get the company on more stable footing as a business and, perhaps more importantly, with investors.

That has included the promotion of former Amazon exec Kal Raman to COO recently to give Mason more support. Raman is now, in effect, in charge of many operational aspects of the company, although not product, marketing or technology.

Another bright light recently has been a major investment by Tiger Global Management, a well-regarded hedge fund and private equity firm, which bought up close to 10 percent of Groupon. The move sent its shares up 24 percent in the last week, to $3.88, with a $2.5 billion valuation.

But that’s still 85 percent below its public offering price a year ago, and a far cry from the hype around the company when it exploded on the scene several years ago. Once the darling of the start-up space, with its innovative new social e-commerce model and lightning-fast growth, Groupon attracted huge funding from a panoply of top-tier Silicon Valley investors.

With that came a stunning $6 billion acquisition offer from Google and, later, an even huger valuation of more than $10 billion.

All that goodwill changed immediately after the company announced its IPO last June, with continued controversy around everything from Groupon’s accounting to management turmoil to its business model to rocky relations with merchants.

And while Mason has labored to affect a more professional tone in his own style, and seemed to have created a more stable management team, continued issues in Europe and getting enough traction for a number of new promising product initiatives has been tougher to solve.

Therefore, Mason’s performance is naturally under increased scrutiny, said sources. He will surely get questions on his record tomorrow, when he is scheduled to appear onstage at Business Insider’s Ignition conference in New York.

Charles Sipkins, a spokesman for the board, declined to comment, as did Groupon spokesman Paul Taaffe.

Here’s something you haven’t seen in a while — Groupon shares rose more than 36 percent last week after Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global Management disclosed Monday that it had bought 65 million shares.

The well-known hedge fund and private equity firm, which has also bought a decent-sized stake in Yahoo recently, actually purchased the stock of the much-beleaguered daily deals company on November 9, according to its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. At the time, Groupon was at $2.76, down about 90 percent from its IPO a year ago.

That’s nearly a 10 percent stake overall for Tiger.

It seems to be part of a hedge fund party at Groupon. Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investments also disclosed a small buy of 150,000 shares last week — as well another from George Soros’ Soros Fund Management, which recently disclosed it had bought 2.5 million shares of Groupon.

Groupon stock closed at $3.95 Friday, a huge improvement — though still massively off its IPO price. Its market valuation is just $2.6 billion.

The Chicago-based Groupon had to be happy about the purchase, which give the company — as well as its CEO and co-founder Andrew Mason — some much needed breathing space. One source close to the situation noted that Coleman is considered to be a friendly and well-regarded investor.

And a reassessment of Groupon by Wall Street could also help. In a note on Monday, Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Sandler wrote that he was considering an upgrade of the stock, noting that the “everything is imploding” meme around the company was not accurate.

Still, slower growth and management changes, as well as continued troubles in its European business, remain worries. Groupon recently promoted Kal Raman, who had previously been SVP of global sales and operations, to COO to help stabilize leadership.

Still, the best medicine right now seems to be a little confidence from a rich guy, as you can see from this chart:

GRPN data by YCharts

And here’s Mason, in an video interview with me in August, talking about trying to bring back the company:

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20121124/can-the-hedge-fund-dudes-save-groupons-stock/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20121121/will-the-marissa-mayer-premium-or-is-it-those-hedge-fund-dudes-piling-in-finally-get-yahoos-stock-to-20-a-share/ http://allthingsd.com/20121121/will-the-marissa-mayer-premium-or-is-it-those-hedge-fund-dudes-piling-in-finally-get-yahoos-stock-to-20-a-share/#comments Wed, 21 Nov 2012 20:38:22 +0000 Kara Swisher http://allthingsd.com/?p=263164

They like her, they really like her.

Wall Street, that is, in regards to new Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer, assigning the former Google exec a clear premium.

And whether it is deserved or not yet from a pure performance perspective — we actually won’t know for several quarters ahead — the shares of the Silicon Valley Internet giant over the past three months have gone up 22 percent. The rise has taken place pretty much on the promise that she will finally be the one to deliver what no other Yahoo leader has done.

And that is, besides making the company relevant and innovative again: Getting Yahoo’s stock past $20 a share again.

That’s within striking distance now. Shares are at $18.40 today, close to an all-time high for the year. The recent rise certainly isn’t taking into account the results of the recent lackluster third quarter, which continued to show the worrisome downward trends — even though partial asset sales of the company’s Chinese Alibaba stake successfully masked the problems — in growth, engagement and overall profitability.

But Mayer’s confident I’ve-got-this tones on the earnings call itself — especially in pushing a mobile strategy that has not been put in place as yet in any substantive way — won over Wall Street investors, who apparently like how she sounds and, thus, are intrigued with what she might do.

While this kind of perceptual game will only get Yahoo so far, moving out of the teens in share price would be an important benchmark for the company.

The stock was last at that level in August of 2008. At the time, in fact, $20 a share was considered very disappointing, taking place after Microsoft dropped its $44.6 billion hostile bid for Yahoo a few months earlier. Indeed, $20 was a big comedown from when Yahoo shares were above $43 in 2006.

The lowest price Yahoo shares got in recent years were $9.39 in November of 2008, just before then CEO and co-founder Jerry Yang stepped down.

Now the stock is close to double that sad trough, fueled in part by some cosmetic moves to improve culture by Mayer — including free food, smartphones and a promise to end the slow-moving decision-making at Yahoo.

There has also been a start of the promised multi-billion-dollar stock buybacks by the company, although Yahoo has been cagey about how and when it is purchasing. Also helping, more recently, is that several big hedge funds are buying into the story of hope.

Following in the footsteps of successful activist shareholder Dan Loeb of Third Point, who is now on the board and is a major Yahoo investor, others like him have now joined in the party in a bigger way. That includes David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital and Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management.

The thoughtful Einhorn, who is a friend of Loeb’s, has been in and out of the stock before, buying it on hopes that now ousted CEO Carol Bartz would be Yahoo’s savior and selling it soon after it was clear she might not be. He came back in February with three million shares, sold them in May, but now has upped his stake to just over five million more under Mayer’s regime.

More substantively, Tiger’s Coleman has grabbed 25 million shares (interestingly, he’s also upped his stakes in Groupon and Facebook).

Obviously, they must believe Yahoo is set to move upward, which all depends on Mayer. She’s made one critical stock misstep early in her tenure, by announcing that she was considering keeping the huge cash windfall from its sale of Alibaba stock and not giving it back to shareholders in some form.

That dropped Yahoo’s shares to under $15, but Mayer walked back that mistake and the stock has been climbing since.

For the year to date, it’s up almost 14 percent — a nice rise — although that pales in comparison to Apple’s 39 percent rise, Amazon’s 37 percent rise and, most of all, AOL’s 136 percent leap.

The comparison to the massive stock run that AOL has had, after CEO Tim Armstrong — also a former Googler — cut costs, focused units, sold patents and bought back stock, is often made. It’s perhaps apt, but arguably Yahoo has much better and fixable assets than AOL.

More to the point, Yahoo’s price-to-earnings ratio remains unusually low — it’s 5.6, compared to the S&P’s 14.2 average — which means that the entire business is severely undervalued by Wall Street.

It is if Mayer can create real value by actually staging the comeback she is already getting credit for accomplishing. She certainly has a lot of levers to improve results, from the stock buyback to finally making a deal to sell its multi-billion-dollar stake in Yahoo! Japan to making expense cuts to buying some innovative small start-ups to creating products that aren’t, well, lame.

Most importantly, Mayer has to stop the decimation of Yahoo’s once mighty advertising business, which makes up the bulk of its revenue, as well as improve its search monetization by rejiggering its heretofore dysfunctional partnership with Microsoft. (But, as I wrote earlier this week, she will not be making new search engines with Facebook.)

A gander at this chart of Yahoo’s declining quarterly revenue should give you a good visual of the problem with the core business:

YHOO Revenue Quarterly data by YCharts

And, indeed, Yahoo’s sales have dropped 29 percent since 2007, with typically flat display revenue and declining search revenue, which was once Yahoo’s crown jewel. While operating margins have risen over the years, very few point to the company as an exciting growth story.

And it still isn’t, although investors are starting to consider it a possibility. We’ll see as Mayer makes more significant changes in 2013, hopefully underpinning the stock’s recent rise with a true story of financial strides.

But, for now, giddy shareholders probably should not get too far ahead of themselves. Not that you can stop them: Mayer fan Eric Jackson is calling for Yahoo’s stock to be over $40 again by end of 2013.

Whether the Mayer premium can do pull off that particular investor miracle or not remains to be seen.

]]> http://allthingsd.com/20121121/will-the-marissa-mayer-premium-or-is-it-those-hedge-fund-dudes-piling-in-finally-get-yahoos-stock-to-20-a-share/feed/ 0 http://allthingsd.com/20121114/andreessen-horowitz-divests-facebook-instagram-shares-but-holds-bulk-of-direct-investment/ http://allthingsd.com/20121114/andreessen-horowitz-divests-facebook-instagram-shares-but-holds-bulk-of-direct-investment/#comments Wed, 14 Nov 2012 22:30:45 +0000 Kara Swisher http://allthingsd.com/?p=269747 According to a new filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, high-profile Silicon Valley venture firm Andreessen Horowitz has distributed just over three million shares of Facebook that it got from the sale of its investment in photo-sharing site Instagram. And, as had been previously reported, Marc Andreessen, who is a Facebook director, is also planning to unload a small amount of stock to cover his personal tax liabilities. In addition, one of the limited partners of Andreessen Horowitz also asked for a distribution of the firm’s direct investment. The firm continues to hold close to 3.9 million shares of Facebook, whose stock has taken a beating since it went public earlier this year. That’s due to a number of reasons, including the end of lock-up periods of a huge number of Facebook employee shares that are now able to come onto the market.

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