“Our proprietary checks in Apple’s supply chain suggest slight increases to our production forecasts for CY1Q11,” Fidacaro said in a note to clients today. “Our read on CDMA iPhone production shows a ramp up from prior forecasts and positive revisions for the GSM iPhone as well. Early indications from the Verizon presale of the CDMA iPhone were [also] strong. Thus, we are raising our iPhone shipment estimates substantially.”

Fidacaro had been looking for Apple to ship 17.7 million iPhones in the March quarter and 70.5 million in fiscal 2011. Now he’s forecasting 19.8 million and 76.7 million–a 92 percent increase year-over-year.

That, along with a significant upward revision to his iPad shipment estimates, driven by the presumed debut of iPad 2–32.1 million in fiscal 2011, up from 27.3 million (a 330 percent increase year-over-year)–prompted Fidacaro to raise his price target on Apple to $465 from $445.

Spare change for Apple shares?

The first signs of trouble came in the form of a cancellation of a media briefing scheduled by Hewlett-Packard for Feb. 15 in New York concerning a new batch of HP business notebooks. I’m now told the event will be rescheduled. (Update: See HP’s statement below.)

Meanwhile, Dell told Bloomberg News that four of its PCs are affected, all of them in the higher end of the lineup: XPS and Alienware, both gaming-oriented machines, and the Vostro line, aimed at businesses.

Update: Dell spokeswoman Elizabeth Shine just sent a statement.

“Dell and Intel are in communication regarding the design issue in the recently released Intel 6 Series support chip set, code-name Cougar Point. This affects four currently-available Dell products, the XPS 8300, the Vostro 460, the Alienware M17x R.3 and the Alienware Aurora R.3 as well as several other planned products including XPS 17 with 3D.

For customers impacted by this issue, Dell offers a couple of solutions. Customers experiencing issues will be supported under the warranty and service terms. Once we have new chip sets from Intel in early April, we will provide a motherboard replacement that corrects the design issue at no cost to our customers. Replacements will be provided at the customers’ location and convenience via authorized Dell service providers. Affected customers may also take advantage of the applicable return policy, which may vary by region.

We will provide further details as they become available.”

What’s not clear yet is whether any shipments at Apple will be affected. As usual, Apple’s product plans are shrouded in the mists of corporate secrecy. The company declined to give a statement, citing a policy of not commenting on future products. But if history is any judge, it’s about time for Apple to update the MacBook Pro. The last update, as the MacRumors Buyer’s Guide helpfully reminds us, was on April 13, 2010, or nearly 300 days ago. The average number of days between updates is closer to 200. Though even if Apple is running later than it would like to on introducing certain Macs, it would probably never admit it.

Intel, for its part, is now starting to help people who recently bought PCs to figure out if they’re affected by the problem. A page on its support Web site walks users through the process of determining whether they have the chipset in question and, if they do, directs them to contact the “place of purchase” or an Intel field sales rep.

Update 2:I just received a statement from HP spokeswoman Marlene Somsak on the issue:

“HP is working with Intel and our distribution partners to address this industrywide issue. The issue relates to only a small fraction of HP PCs sold or ordered since on or about January 9 2011 when the Intel technology became available commercially. HP and Intel are working together to minimize any inconvenience to customers.

For HP, the issue is primarily limited to certain consumer notebooks and certain consumer desktops. One commercial desktop PC model marketed to small business customers in the Europe-Middle East-Africa region is affected. No other commercial desktop products currently shipping are affected. No HP commercial notebooks, ProLiant servers or workstations are affected.

To deliver a high-quality experience to our customers, on January 31 2011 HP stopped manufacturing products with the affected Intel technology and initiated a shipment hold on products in HP and channel inventory.

Customers can return their affected product and choose a comparable product or receive a refund. We will continue to work closely with Intel and our retail partners to address the needs of our customers.”

Supply chain sources tell China’s Economic Daily News that Apple has lined up four new component suppliers for the iPhone 5, which they claim is scheduled for a summer launch. Meanwhile, Taiwanese trade pub DigiTimes is reporting that Apple recently bolstered its printed circuit board (PCB) supply chain in preparation for the next iteration of the iPad. Where the company once used just three PCB suppliers for the device, it’s now using seven. Not a surprise, really, given the 14.8 million iPads Apple sold in 2010. DigiTimes’ sources claim they’re scheduled to begin small-volume shipments next month, before going all out in April. Which jibes nicely with that annual refresh cycle I mentioned earlier and rumors of a spring launch.

As I’ve noted here before, the iPad 2 is expected to be thinner than its predecessor and manufactured with the same unibody approach Apple’s been using for the MacBook. It’s also expected to feature an LCD backlit display, a front-facing camera and Facetime video chat support. Finally, some reports suggest it is powered by one of Qualcomm’s multimode chips and will run on both GSM and CDMA-based networks around the world.

Evidently, RIM is looking to ship one million PlayBooks in the first quarter alone. Market sources tell the occasionally reliable DigiTimes that Quanta Computer has begun volume production of the PlayBook with a shipment target “expected to top one million units.” Which seems a decent number. That said, it does pale in comparison to early iPad shipments, the obvious touchstone here. Apple sold more than 300,000 iPads the day the device went on sale. And just 27 days later it had sold one million.

Dear Apple Store Customer,

You recently received a Shipment Notification email from Apple advising you that your iPhone has shipped.

This email is to confirm that your delivery will occur on June 23rd. Although Apple and FedEx tracking information may currently indicate a later date, you can check the FedEx website the morning of the June 23rd to track your package to your doorstep.

In the event that you will not be available to accept delivery on June 23rd, it may be more convenient to use our pre-sign delivery option by visiting our Order Status website at http://www.apple.com/orderstatus.

Sincerely,

The Apple Store Team

The reason for the change in delivery date isn’t clear, though it might be that Apple is hoping to protect its servers from meltdown by staggering initial iPhone activations over two days.

Read Walt Mossberg’s iPhone 4 Review »

This according to Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Katy Huberty, who says Apple’s manufacturing partners now expect to ship 2.5 million iPads between March and May, considerably ahead of her previous estimate of 750,000 for the June quarter.

What’s more, they are now forecasting shipments of eight to 10 million iPads in calendar 2010, considerably more than prior expectations of five million-plus.

Current Street consensus is for Apple (AAPL) to sell three to four million iPads, but Huberty figures the company will sell over six million iPads.

“We continue to believe the market under-appreciates longer-term iPhone/iPad demand,” Huberty writes. “Negative investor sentiment on the iPad centers on the lack of a ‘killer app’ or new technology.”

Adding detail, the analysts says that “Near-term, we believe iPad will target the sizeable sub-$800 consumer notebook market, which equates to 30 million units in the US and 120 million units globally. Medium-term, newly introduced content (books, magazines, video) and iPad-optimized apps could broaden the addressable market and strengthen iPad sales momentum later this year.”

FURTHER READING:

Launch Day iPads Sold Out

iPad Available at “Most Best Buy Stores” This Saturday

Apple Grabs iPad Trademark From Fujitsu

Apple Now Accepting iPad App Submissions

Early Supplies of iPad Accessories Dwindling?

Initial iPad Demand Greater Than Initial iPhone Demand

iPad TV?

Apple’s Tablet: Read Different?

Rumored Apple Netbook Actually an E-book?

Coming Soon From Apple: Big Touch?

iTablet: Apple’s Killer App for Higher Ed

COMPLETE IPAD COVERAGE

[Image credit: Bitolithic]

In his latest note on the company, Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek says Palm’s (PALM) already substantial troubles are mounting. Palm’s latest problem: Delays in the long-rumored launch of its smartphones on AT&T (T). Originally expected this spring, sources now say the debut of new Pixi and Pre models has been pushed back until summer.

“Beyond generally lacklustre handset sales in the current quarter, which are already reflected in our previous estimates, we have recently learned that AT&T has delayed the planned launch of the Pre and Pixi on its network from April to June/July,” Misek writes.

“Moreover, we believe that this is more than just an ordinary delay,” the analyst adds, “as AT&T has cited a long list of technical issues with the Pre and Pixi. Furthermore, the carrier has decreased its initial order size and has decided to sharply reduce its marketing budget for the launch.”

So: A delayed launch on another major carrier, a smaller first order and a soft marketing budget. On top of these issues, Misek cites a mysterious “list of technical issues.” I’m not quite sure what he is hinting at; my sources tell me there are no problems with the devices on AT&T’s network–but perhaps Misek knows something they don’t.

Leaving the mystery list aside, this is bad news all around for Palm, which clearly needs the additional distribution it will get through AT&T sooner rather than later. Misek is slashing his February quarter unit shipment forecast to 670,000 from 720,000 and his 2011 forecast to 3.58 million units from four million.

Honestly, this getting difficult to watch.

Palm is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after Thursday’s closing bell.

FURTHER READING:

• Could WebOS Licensing Be Palm’s Salvation?
• Palm’s Salvation? Less Push, More Pull.
• And if Palm’s Project JumpStart Doesn’t Work Out, There’s Always “Project Defibrillator”
• Double Face-Palm: Analysts React to Palm’s Lowered Guidance
• Time to Start Looking for a Buyer, Palm?
• 2010: Year of the Palm? Maybe Not…
• Analyst: Palm May Be Acquired in the Next Two Years

It’s interesting, then, to learn that Apple is delaying shipment of both its 27-inch iMac models by two weeks. That seems an ill-timed postponement, one that will likely push many orders past the Christmas holiday.

Reached for comment, Apple (AAPL) offered little in the way of explanation: “The new iMac has been a huge hit and we are working hard to fulfill orders as quickly as possible,” a company spokesperson told me. “We apologize for any inconvenience or delay in delivery this may cause our customers.” He did not address issues with the machine’s display or reports that they might be responsible for the two-week shipping delay.

So it’s not entirely clear what’s going on here. It could be that Apple is delaying shipment of the 27-inch machines until it resolves display issues. Or it could also be that demand for the machine is so great, Apple simply can’t keep up with it. If the former, this is a potential blow to the company, which could see holiday sales adversely affected. If the latter, Apple may be headed for another blowout quarter. We won’t know the answer until Apple tells us or until it next reports quarterly earnings.

Never mind that it faces some particularly long, historic odds. That it has launched a new bet-the-company product in the worst economy we’ve seen in 50 years, for example. That with the Pre, it is challenging Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, one of the most successful mobile phones in history. That it’s competing in a market crowded by the likes of Research in Motion (RIMM) and Nokia (NOK), which shipped an astonishing 468 million phones in calendar 2008.

Never mind all that. Because, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, Palm (PALM) has the “special sauce”–the means of orchestrating a second act, perhaps even one of Jobsian proportions.

“Following a period of decline and facing oblivion, we believe Palm has the potential for a remarkable smartphone turnaround,” Abramsky writes in a lengthy research note on the wireless industry that I mentioned here yesterday as well. “With its new strategy, WebOS product line and under the direction of a new management team headed by ex-Apple executive Jon Rubinstein, Palm (like RIM and Apple) is, in our opinion, well-positioned for smartphone leadership.”

Abramsky sees a promising future: “Our outlook calls for Palm to quickly recover, growing from an estimated 1.3 percent data-centric smartphone shipment market share (0.2 percent TAM) or 2.2 million units in calendar 2009 to 3.6 percent share (1.3 percent of TAM) or 18.2 million units in calendar 2012. Targeting the PIM-centric segment of the Palm legacy, Palm in our view faces near-term risks, but has the ‘special sauce.’” (Click on table below to enlarge.)

And what, exactly, is that? The stuff that goes between the two all-beef patties and the lettuce and cheese?

Not quite. Abramsky’s idea of special sauce includes vertical integration, “controlling the end-to-end smartphone software and hardware platform, a ground-up developed smartphone OS platform with unique innovations like multitasking, Synergy (user data integration), developer-friendly SDK, and compelling and clever hardware/software designs [that] all combine to offer a unique, iconic smartphone experience, differentiated from incumbent vendors.”

A hell of an ingredient list. But it’s one that the Pre and Palm’s webOS largely deliver on–despite some drawbacks. And if Palm can improve on that list, the company should have little trouble wooing back disenfranchised users and winning new ones.

Abramsky, again: “The huge positive reception to the launch of Palm’s Pre, its first WebOS device–despite the already broad awareness of iPhone–illustrates pent-up demand for innovative, non-intimidating smartphone user experiences. The accolades for Pre also show Palm has the potential to provide that rare iconic smartphone experience, above competitors, some incumbents and in the company of RIM and Apple.”

Which is pretty much what Palm has set out to do, as CEO Jon Rubinstein noted in the company’s last earnings call. “There is room for three to five players in this space,” he said. “We don’t have to beat one another to prosper.”

You do have to execute, though. And execution hasn’t historically been one of Palm’s strong suits. Perhaps it will improve with the addition of that special sauce Abramsky’s talking about.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm: The Turnaround Story of the Year
• Pre Makes Palm a New Man in Only Minutes a Day
• Palm: Execution Is Everything

Never mind that it faces some particularly long, historic odds. That it has launched a new bet-the-company product in the worst economy we’ve seen in 50 years, for example. That with the Pre, it is challenging Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, one of the most successful mobile phones in history. That it’s competing in a market crowded by the likes of Research in Motion (RIMM) and Nokia (NOK), which shipped an astonishing 468 million phones in calendar 2008.

Never mind all that. Because, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky, Palm (PALM) has the “special sauce”–the means of orchestrating a second act, perhaps even one of Jobsian proportions.

“Following a period of decline and facing oblivion, we believe Palm has the potential for a remarkable smartphone turnaround,” Abramsky writes in a lengthy research note on the wireless industry that I mentioned here yesterday as well. “With its new strategy, WebOS product line and under the direction of a new management team headed by ex-Apple executive Jon Rubinstein, Palm (like RIM and Apple) is, in our opinion, well-positioned for smartphone leadership.”

Abramsky sees a promising future: “Our outlook calls for Palm to quickly recover, growing from an estimated 1.3 percent data-centric smartphone shipment market share (0.2 percent TAM) or 2.2 million units in calendar 2009 to 3.6 percent share (1.3 percent of TAM) or 18.2 million units in calendar 2012. Targeting the PIM-centric segment of the Palm legacy, Palm in our view faces near-term risks, but has the ‘special sauce.’” (Click on table below to enlarge.)

And what, exactly, is that? The stuff that goes between the two all-beef patties and the lettuce and cheese?

Not quite. Abramsky’s idea of special sauce includes vertical integration, “controlling the end-to-end smartphone software and hardware platform, a ground-up developed smartphone OS platform with unique innovations like multitasking, Synergy (user data integration), developer-friendly SDK, and compelling and clever hardware/software designs [that] all combine to offer a unique, iconic smartphone experience, differentiated from incumbent vendors.”

A hell of an ingredient list. But it’s one that the Pre and Palm’s webOS largely deliver on–despite some drawbacks. And if Palm can improve on that list, the company should have little trouble wooing back disenfranchised users and winning new ones.

Abramsky, again: “The huge positive reception to the launch of Palm’s Pre, its first WebOS device–despite the already broad awareness of iPhone–illustrates pent-up demand for innovative, non-intimidating smartphone user experiences. The accolades for Pre also show Palm has the potential to provide that rare iconic smartphone experience, above competitors, some incumbents and in the company of RIM and Apple.”

Which is pretty much what Palm has set out to do, as CEO Jon Rubinstein noted in the company’s last earnings call. “There is room for three to five players in this space,” he said. “We don’t have to beat one another to prosper.”

You do have to execute, though. And execution hasn’t historically been one of Palm’s strong suits. Perhaps it will improve with the addition of that special sauce Abramsky’s talking about.

PREVIOUSLY:

• Palm: The Turnaround Story of the Year
• Pre Makes Palm a New Man in Only Minutes a Day
• Palm: Execution Is Everything

In a research note issued this week, Canaccord analyst Peter Misek speculates that Apple (AAPL), which recently debuted an iPhone capable of shooting and editing video, plans to bring the same functionality to the iPod.

“We believe Apple is now targeting to enter the low-end camcorder market by adding this functionality into its iPod lineup,” he writes. “…We believe Apple will unveil various iPod versions with camcorder functionality. We believe this will drive sales not only for traditional MP3 players, but as a new competitive dynamic to the lower end camcorder market that is now dominated by Flip line of digital camcorders.”

Misek sees such a move giving a nice boost to iPod sales, which, as Apple revealed earlier this week, have been declining a bit. “On anticipation of this we have markedly raised our iPod growth assumptions and have raised our iPod shipment forecast from 50 million to 65 million units.”

And what of Cisco (CSCO)? What would the transformation of the iPod into a point-and-shoot camcorder mean for the Flip? Certainly not good things. Who’d want to carry two devices for music and video capture when they could carry just one?

“You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. Think about it–If you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they’re going to buy.”

– Elevation Partners founder Roger McNamee

Roger McNamee’s hyperbolic predictions about iPhone-to-Pre conversion rates didn’t go over too well at Palm. Appalled by McNamee’s inflated, indecorous claims about its forthcoming smartphone, the handset maker on Monday filed a Free Writing Prospectus with the SEC that distances the company from McNamee’s claims and categorically refutes his your-next-iPhone-will-be-a-Pre foolishness. There are 10 “clarifications and corrections” in the prospectus, among them these two little gems:

5. With respect to the statements in the tenth paragraph of the transcript that the Palm Pre is “going to be a million times–well, not a million times–several times faster” than Apple, Inc.’s iPhone products and is “going to run rings around them on the web,” the Palm Pre is still under development and it is premature to state the speed at which the device accesses the web or the relative speed of the Palm Pre compared to the smartphone products of competitors.
 
8. The statement in the second paragraph of the article that “not one” person who bought an Apple, Inc. iPhone on the first shipment date “will still be using an iPhone a month” after the two-year anniversary of that day is an exaggerated prediction of consumer behavior pattern and is withdrawn.

Ouch. That was CRAZY talk, Roger.

An embarrassing retraction for McNamee and for Palm (PALM), which was understandably uncomfortable with the silly levels to which the investor raised expectations for the Pre. The next time McNamee appears on Bloomberg TV, he’ll be accompanied by two Pinkerton guys with tranq guns….

$500 fully subsidized with a plan! I said that is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine…. Right now we’re selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year, Apple is selling zero phones a year. In six months, they’ll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace and let’s see…what’s the expression? Let’s see how the competition goes.”

–Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, January 2007

“Apple’s iPhone 3G, introduced in July, is the only reason smartphone growth did not slow in September.” This according to Needham analyst Charles Wolf, who in a research note today points out that the nearly seven million iPhones Apple (AAPL) shipped during the three-month period ending September account for all of the sequential shipment growth in the quarter. Astonishing. The iPhone now represents about 16.6 percent of the entire smartphone market worldwide, second only to Nokia (NOK).

One phone. One, maybe two, carriers per market. Nearly 17 percent of the entire smartphone market worldwide in under two years. What was that you said again, Steve?

$500 fully subsidized with a plan! I said that is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine…. Right now we’re selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year, Apple is selling zero phones a year. In six months, they’ll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace and let’s see…what’s the expression? Let’s see how the competition goes.”

–Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on the iPhone, January 2007

“Apple’s iPhone 3G, introduced in July, is the only reason smartphone growth did not slow in September.” This according to Needham analyst Charles Wolf, who in a research note today points out that the nearly seven million iPhones Apple (AAPL) shipped during the three-month period ending September account for all of the sequential shipment growth in the quarter. Astonishing. The iPhone now represents about 16.6 percent of the entire smartphone market worldwide, second only to Nokia (NOK).

One phone. One, maybe two, carriers per market. Nearly 17 percent of the entire smartphone market worldwide in under two years. What was that you said again, Steve?

To make amends for the outage, Netflix plans to apply a 15 percent credit to billing statements of members whose DVD shipments were delayed.

A welcome turn of events after an ugly week that saw Netflix customers losing their patience and the company losing an estimated $1.8 to $3.6 million in revenue each day because of the disruption.