The good: The satellite radio company posted one of its strongest third quarters ever, reporting $104 million in net income, or 2 cents a share, on revenue of $763 million — up 6 percent from last year. And that was a penny better than Wall Street predictions.

The bad: Sirius added just 334,000 new subscribers in the third quarter, well below analyst’s expectations of as many as 400,000.

So, a significant shortfall. That said, it doesn’t seem to have caused Sirius to alter its subscriber guidance at all. During the last quarter, it raised it to 1.6 million net adds, and during a conference call Tuesday, CEO Mel Karmazin said that forecast still holds.

“We’ve added 1.16 million new net subscribers so far this year compared to 1.09 million in the first 9 months of 2010, a 6 percent increase over last year,” Karmazin said. “And our second quarter — on our second quarter earnings call, we raised our subscriber guidance for the year to 1.6 million net adds, which we expect to meet. This means, we anticipate adding about 440,000 net subscribers in the fourth quarter, up about 34 percent from subscriber growth in the fourth quarter of 2010.”

In other words, subscribership remains at an all-time high and the growth trend is strong enough that Karmazin feels the company can still hit its target.

At least as important: Spotify now has 175,000 paying U.S. subscribers, less than a month after it finally opened its doors in America, says the same source. Last week Billboard cited a source who pegged Spotify’s U.S. user total at “at least one million.”

That’s a conversion rate — crucial to both Spotify’s business plans and to the big music labels — of 12.5 percent. Not quite as good as the 15 percent rate that Spotify reported in its home base of Europe last spring.

On the other hand, Amercian users have less incentive to pay for Spotify than Europeans do — during the company’s six-month launch phase, the U.S. version of the free service gives users more music than the European one does. The main reason to upgrade to paid is to get access on iPhones and Android handsets, for $10 a month.

In any case, it’s still hard to gauge what the numbers mean — it’s very early, and there has been a lot of hype.

Still, for context: Spotify reports that it has 1.6 million paid subscribers in Europe. And last month Rhapsody, the biggest digital music subscription service in the U.S., said it had 800,000 paid subscribers. (Sirius XM has 21 million subscribers, but the satellite radio service isn’t an apples-to-apples analog with Spotify et al; closer to a pear.)

Meanwhile, Rdio, a U.S.-based Spotify competitor hoping to capitalize on Spotify’s wave of publicity — or at least not get drowned by it — has made an interesting move: It is going to continue marketing its service via Apple’s iTunes, while raising its prices — for customers who sign up via its mobile apps — from $10 to $15 a month in order to comply with Apple’s new subscription rules and fees.

Most other subscription services — including Spotify and Rhapsody — have gone the other route, by taking down subscription links from their Apple apps, but keeping their pricing intact.

“When Sirius needed Stern, it promised him a share in any success that the company achieved,” the suit reads. “But now that Sirius has conquered its chief competitor and acquired more than 20 million subscribers, it has reneged on its commitment to Stern, unilaterally deciding that it has paid him enough.”

According to the suit, Sirius did give Stern his initial stock award after he signed on in January 2006, but it failed to pay him out on any others even though it “exceeded its own internal estimates by more than 2 million subscribers” each year for the remainder of the original contract.

“Stern enabled Sirius to surpass its internal subscriber targets by more than 2 million subscribers in 2006 and in 2007,” the suit alleges. “Because of this success and the revenue that it brought into the company, [Stern] was entitled to receive the performance-based stock awards Sirius promised [him].”

So Sirius is stiffing Stern. Not a particularly wise move given the latter’s irascibility and reach of his daily radio show. If there’s a PR battle to be fought here, Sirius will likely lose it first thing tomorrow morning when Stern’s back on the air again.

Reached for comment, Sirius claimed to have met its obligations to Stern. “SIRIUS XM just signed a contract through 2015 with Howard Stern, and he is a valued part of our company,” spokesman Patrick Reilly told me. “We were thus surprised and disappointed by the subsequent legal action initiated by his production company and agent. We have met all of our obligations under the terms of our 2004 agreement with Howard, his agent and production company.”

Here’s a copy of the suit:

SternSuit –

“I’m so over Twitter… it’s too much contact with the fans.”

– Twitter late-bloomer Howard Stern telling his Sirius listeners why he’s already tired of the service after less than a month, via Jim Romenesko. While this may disappoint Twitter executives who were praising Stern’s live-tweeting experiment just a few weeks ago, it’s worth noting that the radio pioneer was still playing with the service this morning, presumably after he had groused about it on-air.

Analysts had been calling for Sirius to break even in its fourth quarter on revenue of $740 million. Instead it reported a loss of $81.4 million, or two cents a share, on revenue of $735.9 million. The reason for the miss: An increase in operating expenses and $85.4 million in debt-extinguishment losses.

Unfortunate. Still, the company’s latest financials weren’t without some good news. Sirius added 328,789 new subscribers in the fourth quarter, up from 257,028 in the fourth quarter of 2009. And it ended 2010 with 20.2 million subscribers, 8 percent more than the 18.8 million it claimed at the end of 2009, and well above its target of 20.1 million.

The company’s satellite radio service is pre-installed in about 60 percent of cars sold in the United States, and historically its take rate has been upward of 44 percent. So when J.D Power says that light-vehicle sales for January will hit 794,500 units, 14 percent higher than January 2010, that’s good news for Sirius. Even better is this: The research firm is raising its retail sales forecast for the entire year. Not by much–just to 10.5 million units from 10.4 million units.

But the trend is upward, and J.D. Power and Associates’ Jeff Schuster says there’s room for even more upside. “Optimism is increasing for the auto industry following a stronger outlook for the economy,” he explained. “GDP growth is expected to be in the 3 percent to 3.2 percent range for 2011. As the macro drivers continue to improve and credit availability increases, further upside potential remains.”

In other words, 2011 is shaping up to be a good year for Sirius XM.

That should be an easy thing to pull off, particularly if the company manages to renew its deal with Howard Stern, whose contract expires at the end of the year. But it hasn’t done that yet, according to Karmazin. “We had hoped that prior to this call we would have an update on the status of Howard Stern with Sirius XM,” he said this morning. “We do not have any update today, other than to say discussions continue.”

That’s what Sirius XM Satellite Radio (SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin had to say during the company’s second-quarter earnings call this morning, and he had good reason to say it. With the winds of an improving economy and increasing auto sales at its back, the company turned in another decent financial performance, posting a profit of $15.3 million, breaking even on a per-share basis, compared with a year-earlier loss of $159.6 million, or four cents a share. Revenue rose 18 percent to $699.8 million.

Analysts had expected the company to break even on revenue of $690 million.

Sirius added 583,249 subscribers in the second quarter, ending it with some 19.5 million–up 6 percent over last year and a record high.

Just about this time a year ago, Sirius XM Radio was up a certain creek with nary a paddle in sight. Its shares were trading at around 35 cents, it was hemorrhaging money, and anemic car sales had just led it to post its first-ever decline in net subscriber additions. The company ended its June 2009 quarter with 18.6 million subscribers–up 3.5 percent from a year earlier but down 404,000 subscribers from the preceding quarter. And though it added 1,338,961 new customers, Sirius lost 1,743,383.

Which makes the satellite-radio operator’s announcement of a nice spike in subscribership today all the more sweet.

Sirius (SIRI) said this morning that it added 583,000 net subscribers in the second quarter, bringing total subscribership to 19,524,448–a new record. And with that as a backdrop, the company raised its forecast for net subscriber additions for the third time, boosting this year’s projected growth to 1.1 million subscribers from 750,000.

“Our subscriber results mark the best quarter of gross additions, deactivations and net additions since the merger of Sirius and XM in July 2008,” CEO Mel Karmazin said in a statement. “The strong execution in both adding subscribers and retaining them resulted in our record-high 19.5 million subscriber milestone, despite continued economic uncertainty. The further improvement in our guidance reflects the attractiveness of satellite radio but maintains a cautious outlook for continued improvement in the economy.”

The recovery in consumer spending and auto sales is evidently giving Sirius (SIRI) quite a lift, enough for it to boost projected new subscriptions to approximately 750,000 from about 500,000, its revenue to $2.75 billion and its profit to $575 million.

Quite a change from last year, when the company seemed headed toward almost certain bankruptcy. Its shares are up some 75 percent this year.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected the company to break even on revenue of $671 million. Sirius added 171,441 net subscribers during the period and reiterated its view that it expects to add more than 500,000 subscribers this year.

With quarterly net subscriber additions of 171,441, Sirius (SIRI) ended March with 18,944,199 subscribers. Quite an improvement over the year-ago quarter, when it lost 404,422 subscribers.

“Continued positive subscriber growth, double-digit growth in revenue, and a sharp focus on costs resulted in the highest quarterly adjusted operating income in the company’s history,” Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin said in a statement. “The continuing recovery of the automotive sector and expanding signs of increased consumer spending are encouraging signs for the company’s growth prospects.”

Still more good news for the company, which last week avoided delisting from Nasdaq. That said, at $1.14, Sirius shares are trading down 7.32 percent this morning. Evidently, the revenue miss didn’t go over too well with investors.

As of market close today, the company’s shares have traded above $1 for 10 straight days, putting it back in compliance with NASDAQ’s minimum bid requirement. As a result, the NASDAQ Listing Qualifications Panel hearing Sirius was to attend Thursday has been canceled and the company is no longer in danger of being booted to the Pink Sheets — not that it ever was, really.

More good news for Sirius whose shares were trading at a new 52-week high of $1.20 yesterday.

An ominous threat, but one not likely to be carried out. Sirius said back in February that it would appeal such a delisting notice and seek an extension from Nasdaq, and that’s exactly what the company is doing.

In a press release announcing the notice, Sirius said it will request a hearing before a Nasdaq Listing Qualifications Panel and petition it for a continued listing pending its return to compliance (SatWaves has a good overview of how this will play out). And the company seems quite confident it will get the hearing.

“SIRIUS XM is one of the most liquid securities on The NASDAQ Global Select Market,” Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin said in a statement. “We have a large investor base consisting of both individual and prominent institutional stockholders; and our equity capitalization is greater than approximately 92 percent of the companies listed on The NASDAQ Global Select Market. We are committed to remaining listed on The NASDAQ Global Select Market.”

Frankly, with over 3.7 billion shares outstanding, there’s little reason to fear Sirius will be booted from Nasdaq. And if you do harbor such fears, consider this: A few days ago the exchange added Sirius to its Nasdaq Q-50 Index, which, according to the release announcing it, “is designed to track the performance of the 50 securities that are next in line to replace the securities currently included in the NASDAQ-100 Index.” If Nasdaq were truly preparing to delist Sirius, why would it bother adding the company to the Q-50?

Read the rest of this post on the original site

Why? Well, sentiment about the company and its prospects are clearly improving now that it has its finances in order. The unexpected increase in subscriber growth the company recently reported is obviously helping as well. Also presumably fueling the rally is increasing confidence that Howard Stern will stick with Sirius, rather than bail for terrestrial radio when his contract expires next year. Beyond that, I’m not entirely sure.

In any event, it seems there’s no longer a need for a reverse stock split to push Sirius above the $1 per share minimum for Nasdaq trading.

At a roundtable event this morning at The Paley Center for Media, Sirius (SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin was asked that very question. Does he worry about Stern leaving for an outfit–like Pandora–looking to avail itself of the same “Stern Effect” that spiked Sirius’s subscriber rolls?

Karmazin acknowledged that while it’s a possibility, he’s dubious. “I think it’s great to be content today,” he said. “In this world of fragmentation, great content prevails. Howard Stern is great content. Howard would be sought after by anyone. He’s a great talent. Having said that, we would like him to stay with us and we are optimistic that he will continue to do so.”

It’s worth noting that Karmazin, while he does view Internet radio as a competitor, doesn’t seem too worried by it. “There are a lot of choices for audio content,” he remarked. “And obviously, the Internet is one of them. But the question is who’s going to the the largest player? And I think that’s our spot to lose. I believe we will be the most profitable of audio content choices.”

Further Notes From the Event

On Amazon’s Kindle:
I am addicted to my Kindle. I saw Jeff Bezos in Sun Valley recently [and] I told him I have personally bought a dozen to give as gifts.

On Comcast/NBC Universal:
I dont’ see anything anticompetitive about what Comcast is doing–the review should take a few weeks. Either you accept the fact that there’s a lot of competition out there, or you don’t….But I do think this thing is going to drag out like it did for us. So far there are only two congressional hearings on Comcast/NBC. We had four–there were fewer for the Exxon Valdez.

On In-Car Internet and the Apple iPod:
I think the Internet will absolutely be in the car and we think it will be a good competitor. You know we’ve been competing with iPods for a long time. And we look at how sat radio performs in the vehicles where people have the ability to put an iPod jack in and we don’t see much of a difference. We believe them to be complementary.

Stern said today that he has been approached by several “regular” radio execs about returning to his original turf when his five-year $500 million contract with Sirius XM (SIRI) expires.

“I actually have an offer,” Stern said, according to a report on The Wrap. “Well, not a bona fide offer, but people have been making them.”

Stern’s remarks today follow a public call-and-response negotiation with Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin that began last fall. “It will start with Howard feeling that he is working too hard and doing too many shows and not making enough money,” Karmazin told attendees of the Reuters Media Summit in November. “Our side would say, ‘We want you to do more, and get less money.’ The hope would be that we would come out with Howard staying with our service.”

Stern, of course, is angling for the exact opposite. “I don’t think I’m going to be re-signing. I know exactly what I want to do here,” he said last year, referring to a less busy schedule. “And I don’t know if it would interest [Sirius.]“

Given the size of Stern’s audience and the availability of much of Sirius’s other content on the Internet, my guess is that it would.