“The continued economic turmoil, and in particular the troubling unemployment rate, is undoubtedly impacting industry sales,” said NPD analyst Anita Frazier. “Our latest Economy Tracker indicated that although consumers’ general opinion about the economy is improving, their outlook on their own personal situation is worsening. If consumers’ personal outlook continues to erode, they could very well be much more conservative with their holiday shopping this year.”

A somber warning for the videogame industry. Even recent price cuts on game consoles have done little to spur demand.

“Year to date, the hardware category has experienced the sharpest decline in the industry, with unit sales down 10 percent compared to the same time period last year,” Frazier wrote. “Recent price cuts helped spur a one- to two-month increase in unit sales, and this month’s Wii sales reflect that boost, but the other platforms have not sustained the sales momentum after price reduction.”

The videogame industry may be recession-resistant, but it is clearly not recession-proof, as some once believed. Sales data, below.

U.S. Hardware Sales, October 2009

1. Wii 506.9K
2. Nintendo DS 457.6K
3. PlayStation 3 320.6K
4. Xbox 360 249.7K
5. PSP 174.6K
6. PlayStation 2 117.8K

U.S. Top Ten Software Sales, October 2009

1. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3, Sony) 537,000
2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) 441,000
3. Borderlands (360, Take 2) 418,000
4. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) 314,000
5. NBA 2K10 (360, Take 2) 311,000
6. Halo 3: ODST (360, Microsoft) 271,000
7. NBA 2K10 (PS3, Take 2) 213,000
8. Forza Motorsport 3 (360, Microsoft) 175,000
9. Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days (DS, Square Enix) 169,000
10. FIFA Soccer 10 (360, Electronic Arts) 156,000

“It appears that Amazon is gaining share the old-fashioned way,” ThinkEquity analyst Ed Weller noted last week, “by acquiring more and more customers…and selling more to each of them.” And judging from the nice gain in third-quarter earnings the company posted after Thursday’s closing bell, that would seem to be the case.

Net income for the period surged 69 percent thanks to a strong increase in sales. Analysts had been looking for earnings of 33 cents a share on revenue of $5.02 billion for the quarter. Amazon (AMZN) reported 45 cents a share, compared with 27 cents a share for the same period the previous year. Revenue rose 28 percent to $5.45 billion.

Once again, it seems Amazon has not broken out Kindle sales numbers in its report, though CEO Jeff Bezos did stress them in an earnings release. Said Bezos: “Kindle has become the #1 bestselling item by both unit sales and dollars–not just in our electronics store but across all product categories on Amazon.com. It’s also the most wished for and the most gifted. We are grateful for and energized by this customer response.”

Looking ahead to the key fourth quarter, Amazon is calling for revenue in the range of $8.125 billion to $9.125 billion. Analysts have been forecasting revenue of $8.13 billion. Given that the upcoming quarter includes the annual holiday shopping binge, Amazon may be looking at another blowout quarter.

Shares in the company are spiking on the news, up over nine percent to $101.90 as I write this.

“It appears that Amazon is gaining share the old-fashioned way,” ThinkEquity analyst Ed Weller noted last week, “by acquiring more and more customers…and selling more to each of them.” And judging from the nice gain in third-quarter earnings the company posted after Thursday’s closing bell, that would seem to be the case.

Net income for the period surged 69 percent thanks to a strong increase in sales. Analysts had been looking for earnings of 33 cents a share on revenue of $5.02 billion for the quarter. Amazon (AMZN) reported 45 cents a share, compared with 27 cents a share for the same period the previous year. Revenue rose 28 percent to $5.45 billion.

Once again, it seems Amazon has not broken out Kindle sales numbers in its report, though CEO Jeff Bezos did stress them in an earnings release. Said Bezos: “Kindle has become the #1 bestselling item by both unit sales and dollars–not just in our electronics store but across all product categories on Amazon.com. It’s also the most wished for and the most gifted. We are grateful for and energized by this customer response.”

Looking ahead to the key fourth quarter, Amazon is calling for revenue in the range of $8.125 billion to $9.125 billion. Analysts have been forecasting revenue of $8.13 billion. Given that the upcoming quarter includes the annual holiday shopping binge, Amazon may be looking at another blowout quarter.

Shares in the company are spiking on the news, up over nine percent to $101.90 as I write this.

[CORRECTION: My assertion about NPD's unit sales data below is incorrect: The tracking service counts 12 digital download singles as the equivalent of one CD. That makes Apple's share of the market that much more impressive, since singles make up the majority of iTunes sales.]

Ready to toss dirt on the old, unloved CD? You’re going to have to wait a while. Compact discs are increasingly hard to find (at least in physical stores), but someone out there keeps buying them: The ancient format still makes up the majority of music sales in the U.S.

Here are the data for the first half of the year, via the NPD Group consumer-tracking outfit: CDs made up 65 percent of the music market, while paid digital downloads accounted for 35 percent. The digital share has increased from 20 percent two years ago, and Apple’s iTunes (AAPL) alone makes up 25 percent of overall sales*, so you’re going to hear lots of proclamations about Steve Jobs’s ascent to the to top of the music industry.

But hold off on that, just a bit. Because those numbers are skewed even more in favor of the CD than they appear at first glance: They’re measuring unit sales, not dollars. And given that the majority of digital sales are in the single format (i.e., a dollar or so a pop), that means CDs (at $10 or so a pop) still account for the vast majority of music revenue.

Which is why the industry is still tied to CDs, even though no one you know buys them anymore. And it explains why the industry is working on two separate digital formats (dubbed “Cocktail” when sold by Apple, and CMX when sold by anyone else) designed to induce buyers to pay for CD-like bundles.

It won’t work. At best, they’ll convince some digital album buyers to upgrade, but the music business is once again a singles business, and it’s going to remain that way. But you can’t blame the industry for trying.

By the way, there are decent odds you’ll hear about Cocktail at Apple’s September event, which Digital Daily’s John Paczkowski says is scheduled for Sept. 9. Mark your calendar.

*If you’re keeping track: Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) trail Apple in the overall market. And iTunes still dominates the digital download market with a 69 percent share, while Amazon (AMZN) is a distant second with eight percent.

If that’s the kind of thing that makes you happy, then you would love today’s call, in which the exact same thing happened again. Twice! From my transcription/paraphrase this afternoon:

Q: What about getting into the low priced/netbook category?

Apple COO Tim Cook: “Our goal is not to build the most computers, it’s to build the best. Whatever price point we can build the best in, we will play there. At this point, we don’t see a way to build a great product at that price point, $399, $499.” We think many customers buying those find themselves “disenchanted” after buying cheapo/netbooks.

Q: Do you think there is an emerging market for a “truly mobile device” with a larger screen, a market big enough that you may want to participate?

Cook: “Never want to discount anything in the future,” and never want to answer specifically your question about new products. [Duh.] But boy, do we think netbooks are lousy, and we think customers agree.

Two things here:

1. Apple has a history of disparaging products and markets right before they unveil their own. So it’s not unreasonable for analysts to keep asking about the prospects for a supercheap Mac laptop. But Apple really is emphatic about its distaste for these machines.
2. Apple is not ruling some sort of device that’s more expensive than a netbook and less expensive than a $999 MacBook…and may have a big touchscreen…and is bigger than an iPhone, etc. Something, perhaps, like an $800 iTablet. We’ll see.

EARLIER:

Joining call late; analysis of Q3 results here.

Reading from prepared statement:

• Eight billion songs purchased and downloaded from iTunes store.
• Slight uptick at Mac retail stores. 50 percent of Macs sold at stores to customers who didn’t own Macs before. 258 stores. 27 store remodels.
• Gross-margin improvement: Component cost increase not as high as expected; weaker U.S. dollar helped.
• Cash pile: Will be invested in short-term investments. First week of Q4, made $500 million payment to Toshiba for future supply of NAND flash memory.

Q&A:

• Please talk about your relationship with wireless carriers (i.e., when will you dump AT&T (T) for Verizon (VZ). Tim Cook: “I think that most of the carriers we’re doing business with are thrilled with lower churn…and, of course, their customers are demanding the iPhone.” Do you see opportunity beyond the iPhone, like data plans for laptops with AT&T? “Nothing to be announced today.” How’s your relationship with AT&T? “I think it’s an excellent relationship and we’re very happy with it.”
• Discussion of education and professional market for Mac laptops/PCs–both affected by economy more than consumer market, i.e., schools and corporations are less likely to spring for shiny new Macs than Joe Sixpack.
• How is the $99 iPhone performing? As we made changes–launch of 3Gs and lower-priced iPhones–we saw acceleration of unit sales. But won’t break down mix. Supply of phones has been “constrained” and demand is robust. Opportunity for enterprise sale? Big opportunity. Doing well with small business, and with big corporations and agencies where employees can purchase for themselves.
• Guidance details? No change in thinking regarding guidance offerings. We usually see an increase in Mac units from June to September, but we think the sequential increase will be less than in previous years since we’ve refreshed our lines a while back. Also, education sales are “under pressure from budget shortfalls.” Same thing with the iPod: We think we’ll see a decline for regular players but an increase for the iPod touch. Seasonality makes projections a little funky this time around given timing of product launches.
• Channel inventory for iPhone lower is than we would like; there are 1.83 million phones in inventory.
• Given the $999 MacBook and price cuts for the Mac line, is the MacBook more or less elastic than anticipated? As we expected, some people are now buying up, because they can get the Macbook Pro for $1,199, down from $1,899. “We’re not thinking fundamentally different about the Mac business than we were before.” If we can build great Macs at lower prices, we will, but we won’t put the Mac brand on products that aren’t up to our standards.
• Update on Snow Leopard? Why such a low price point? Snow Leopard is priced aggressively so that all our users can upgrade to it, and we expect that they will. What commodity prices are you worried about, what should we think of the Toshiba prebuy? Are others coming? The market for DRAM and large-size LCDs has “shifted to constrained environment” and prices have moved accordingly. The NAND supply is getting better. We have a long-term supply agreement with Toshiba. We view flash as key component because we use it in so many products, and we’re a big consumer on a worldwide basis. We’re always open to similar deals. We’ve done one with LG on LCDs. We may do others, but we’re not working on one now.
• Please talk more about consumer demand for lower-priced laptops. No details forthcoming. But on macro level: Once price changes, people are upsold from $999 unit to $1,199 unit. [We just heard that.] Prior to change, we had seen people leaning toward the $999 product. What about pricing on iPhone side? Sounds like $99 3G iPhone helped drive traffic to the $199 3GS iPhone. Was that the plan? We’re focused on total iPhone units. So we’re psyched about 5.2M iPhones sold. Also, take note that the 3GS is in short supply and not available in all territories. Also, early in cycle, you have more upgraders, and upgraders are more likely to get higher priced phones. Still, too early to tell about product mix.
• Competitors are now finally coming out with rival app stores–Pre (barely), BlackBerry, etc.). What are you up to in answering back? Well, we just launched OS 3.0. That’s pretty great. It has an Installed base of 45 million (iPhones and iPod touch). We have a gazillion apps. According to the latest numbers from Nokia (NOK) and RIM (RIMM), they have a couple thousand each; Android has maybe 5,000. “We feel extremely good about our competitive position and continue to believe that we’re light years ahead of other people.”
• What about getting into the low-priced/netbook category? Tim Cook: “Our goal is not to build the most computers, it’s to build the best. Whatever price point we can build the best in, we will play there. At this point, we don’t see a way to build a great product at that price point, $399, $499.” We think many customers buying those find themselves “disenchanted” after buying cheapo/netbooks.
• Is the carrier network strong enough to handle all the apps and the more robust apps you’re coming out with every day? Non-answer. Do you think you guys will make investments on the side to take pressure of carrier-capacity issues? No plans. When we entered business, we looked at it, decided what we could do well was deliver the handset. I think there are other people that have more skills in the network area, and I think we have a lot of those partners.
• Back to netbooks and things like netbooks, but better, like the iTablet: Do you think there is an emerging market for a “truly mobile device” with a larger screen, a market big enough that you may want to participate? Cook: “Never want to discount anything in the future,” and never want to answer specifically your question about new products. [Duh.] But, boy, do we think netbooks are lousy and we think customers agree.
• Any info on iPhone sales split between new buyers and upgrades? Nope. Okay, how about the app store? It looks like prices are in a “race to the bottom”; there are lots of 99 cent apps. Are you worried about that? And can you help customers distinguish between good ones and “garbage”? Cook: “We realize there’s further opportunity for improvement” regarding promoting quality apps, etc. Regarding price: It’s up to the developers. As the installed base grows, it makes more sense to have lower prices, but that’s up to the developers.

Call finished.

“We are preparing for a [second-half] letdown in PCs,” Moskowitz wrote in a research note to clients. “While our revised unit growth estimates are edging up, our draconian revenue outlook remains unchanged. We continue to model sub-seasonal sequential trends for the second half of the year.” Demand, he adds, will continue to be slow, and the coming launch of Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows 7 OS will be no panacea. “So far in the June quarter, our conversations with industry contacts suggest that PC end demand remains soft, and there are increasing concerns of another inventory correction across the food chain if suppliers continue to target normal seasonality in the second half of the year….We have not seen a major PC upgrade cycle related to an operating system launch since 1995, and we do not expect anything different with Windows 7.”

Back in March Gartner predicted that the PC industry would see its sharpest unit decline in history in 2009. Sadly, Moskowitz’s note would seem to bear that out.

If Apple is indeed preparing to offer the iPhone 3G in China in partnership with China Unicom, its sales prospects are looking pretty damn good. Bank of America analyst Scott Craig believes the company could claim as much as a fifth of the smartphone market in China when it launches the device there–and in relatively short order. “Our Asia supply chain checks seem to indicate that Apple believes it can achieve an initial penetration rate, least on a sell-in basis, similar to the iPhone launch in the U.S. (about 20 percent),” Craig wrote in a recent research note. “In fact, given our channel checks in Asia, Apple likely believes it can easily meet (and likely exceed) this and/or believes in other scenarios that result in much higher unit sales levels.”

Craig estimates that Apple (AAPL) can sell 1.5 million iPhones in China in calendar 2009, assuming a midyear release and a price-point of $500-$600. He sees the company selling a further 4.6 million in calendar 2010, and 5.8 million in calendar 2011. That’s a hell of a lot of iPhones. But given the strong gray market interest in China already and the fact that China Unicom’s customer base at 150 million is roughly twice the size of AT&T Wireless, it doesn’t seem like all that much of a stretch.

If Apple is indeed preparing to offer the iPhone 3G in China in partnership with China Unicom, its sales prospects are looking pretty damn good. Bank of America analyst Scott Craig believes the company could claim as much as a fifth of the smartphone market in China when it launches the device there–and in relatively short order. “Our Asia supply chain checks seem to indicate that Apple believes it can achieve an initial penetration rate, least on a sell-in basis, similar to the iPhone launch in the U.S. (about 20 percent),” Craig wrote in a recent research note. “In fact, given our channel checks in Asia, Apple likely believes it can easily meet (and likely exceed) this and/or believes in other scenarios that result in much higher unit sales levels.”

Craig estimates that Apple (AAPL) can sell 1.5 million iPhones in China in calendar 2009, assuming a midyear release and a price-point of $500-$600. He sees the company selling a further 4.6 million in calendar 2010, and 5.8 million in calendar 2011. That’s a hell of a lot of iPhones. But given the strong gray market interest in China already and the fact that China Unicom’s customer base at 150 million is roughly twice the size of AT&T Wireless, it doesn’t seem like all that much of a stretch.

When I look at this, it sends shivers up my spine.”

– Apple COO Tim Cook demonstrates a new MacBook running Windows

If there was any comic relief during Tuesday’s Apple event, it was provided by Microsoft (MSFT), which played Curly to CEO Steve Jobs’s Moe and COO Tim Cook’s Larry. Discussing the dramatic increase in the Mac’s market share in the past year, Cook said it was driven partially by “something we didn’t do: Vista.”

“I think it’s fair to say that Vista hasn’t lived up to everything that Microsoft hoped it would,” Cook said. “And consequently, it’s opened doors for a lot of people to consider switching to the Mac. And Apple has been the beneficiary of this.”

Recognize misfortune for what it is: an opportunity to lift yourself to a higher level, eh, Tim?

Anyway, according to Cook, 50 percent of all new Macs sold are purchased by switchers. Moreover, the Mac has outgrown the market for 14 of the last 15 quarters. That’s nearly four years. “The Macintosh represents 17.6 percent of all unit sales in U.S. retail,” said Cook. “That means one out of every three dollars spent on computers in U.S. retail is spent on the Mac.”

A remarkable point. And one seemingly borne out by the latest PC vendor shipment numbers from Gartner (IT) (click on chart below). Apple (AAPL) showed nearly 30 percent year-over-year growth in the third quarter, its market share rising to 9.5 percent from 7.7 percent.