Tablets Eating PC Market Share With Some Fava Beans and a Nice Chianti
Driven by steep adoption rates and a proliferation of new devices, tablets will evolve into a $35 billion market by 2012, posting 171.8 percent year-over-year growth this year and 66.2 percent the next. That’s according to J.P. Morgan, which sees the tablet as a meaningful revenue opportunity for PC makers and an emerging threat, as well.
In 2010, the research outfit estimates, tablet-related cannibalization of PCs was about 18.9 percent. And in the next two years it will nearly double.
“We expect tablets to have an increasingly negative impact on PC shipments,” analyst Mark Moskowitz wrote. “We are modeling more than 35 percent of tablets sold in 2012 to cannibalize PCs. More specifically, we expect that tablets will have the largest impact on the netbook market, which had represented about 20 percent of the notebook PC market prior to the tablet’s arrival. As a result of our assumptions, we estimate that the cannibalization rate of PCs gradually will trend close to 10 percent of notebook PC units (including standard notebooks and netbooks).”
Lousy news for PC makers without a strong tablet offering, and great news for the company with the strongest tablet offering of them all: Apple. Moskowitz expects the iPad to sustain the company’s competitive advantage in the tablet market for at least the next few years. In 2011, for example, he sees Apple shipping 29.1million tablets–about 60.8 percent of the tablet market. The following year, however, that percentage will decline. Apple will account for 44.6 percent of tablet unit shipments, a sizable decline in share from the prior year, but one tempered by the unit sales and the great margins the company so often claims. Moskowitz believes about 60.5 percent of tablet market revenues in 2012 will go to Apple.