John Paczkowski

Recent Posts by John Paczkowski

Analyst: iPhone 4 Launch a “2 Million-3 Million iPhone Event”

The announcement from Apple that it presold a record 600,000 iPhone 4s on Tuesday despite a fiasco of an ordering process has analysts predicting this year’s iPhone launch will be the best ever. Earlier this week, UBS (UBS) analyst Maynard Um and Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster issued bullish first-weekend sales forecasts. And now Susquehanna Financial’s Jeff Fidacaro has followed suit with what I think is the most bullish prediction to date: Launch weekend sales of the iPhone 4, says Fidacaro, will be two to three times what they were for the 3G and 3GS (pretty much in line with the estimate offered the other day by Business Insider’s Dan Frommer).

“Given the size of the iPhone 4 pre-order and our analysis of the expected upgrade cycle, particularly the remaining 3G users, we believe the full launch weekend of June 24-27 is shaping up to potentially be a 2 million-3 million iPhone event,” Fidacaro said in a research note today.

“[That’s] about 2-3x higher than the one million units sold over the first three days for both the 3GS and 3G launches,” the analyst added. “The strong initial demand seen during the pre-order is a positive for the June quarter and has apparently been limited by supply with new orders now indicating a July 14 delivery date.”

With 600,000 pre-orders racked up as of Wednesday and a few days yet to take more, a two-million unit launch weekend for Apple (AAPL) doesn’t seem much of a stretch. Frankly, neither does three million, given the iPhone 4’s feature set and price, as well as the fact that this year’s launch weekend begins on a Thursday rather than a Friday.


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Nobody was excited about paying top dollar for a movie about WikiLeaks. A film about the origins of would have done better.

— Gitesh Pandya of comments on the dreadful opening weekend box office numbers for “The Fifth Estate.”